Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. devilonthetownhallroof

    devilonthetownhallroof 2007 TGG Fantasy Baseball League Champion

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    I don't have you on block or anything so I'm not sure what's going on with that. :shit: That was just a picture from Facebook from the local TV weather guy. I don't know what any of those acronyms stand for, just figured I'd post it.
     
  2. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    were even being told to keep an eye out here in NE SC.
     
  3. deathstar

    deathstar Well-Known Member

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    Lots of wind and some heavy rain bands here in Palm Beach County...

    Under a tropical storm watch or warning...Palm Beach schools will let out 3 hour early tomorrow and be closed on Friday...
     
    #1823 deathstar, Oct 24, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2012
  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    lol..ty cman..again...Im pretty good at knowing where the bullshit is and who is dead on in the past and reading through the nonsense but truthfully, from scratch, could never ever do this just by reading maps.

    You are stocked up and ready for the winter..good man!
     
  5. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Didnt mean anything by it D. Didnt think so...wanted to comment on it. Its a very good, in the weather world, spaghetti map. Shows all the models and what they are showing. Its just missing the GFS and Euro..two of the better ones.

    It really is a great post and good find. I will try to show a map with all of them...it will make your head spin.
     
  6. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    The male orgies should still be on Jon Jon...your good to go buddy!! Jon..why does everyone throw the gay stuff at you? For the record..I believe you to be a 100 percent heterosexual (that might dream about going dark but would never really do it).
     
  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Thats the messed up thing Type. If you look at the Euro model projection..it only has the storm about 200 miles off your coast...it would take very little change to put that thing on land at the NC/SC border..and then swing it back over water. Keep an eye out. Regardless..the beaches will take a huge hit. We have property on North Topsail Beach and when I was down there last week....at high tide...the water was coming right up to the stairs that lead over the dunes.

    Will not take much to do major damage down there. Good luck bud..if I see any changes i will post them. The GFS model comes at 1030 and most importantly, the Euro comes out after 1am and I will post what they say.
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Again..like TypeOne...not much change in the models would put you guys in even more danger...I will post the newest models in the next couple hours.
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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  11. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Precip amounts...I think they are actually UNDERDONE for many areas:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

    Just realized..its underdone because it goes out only until Tuesday. This will wind up going all the way until Wednesday because of a heavy stall once it comes inland..but lets not even start with the stall.
     
    #1831 jaywayne12, Oct 24, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2012
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    From NOAA...and they are usually conservative:

    ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INFINITE SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENTLY EVOLVING
    PATTERN...IN GENERAL IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
    IMPRESSIVE-TO-EXTREME TROPICAL-TO-EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING
    OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE THAT
    WILL HAVE PAPERS WRITTEN ABOUT IT IN YEARS TO COME. IT IS
    IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER EACH OF THE VARYING SOLUTIONS....BUT WE CAN
    ROUGHLY BREAK IT DOWN INTO THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES:

    1 - SANDY MOVES INLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WHILE ITS REMNANT
    CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO SOMEWHERE WITHIN NYS. THIS PRODUCES
    A WHOLE BUNCH OF RARE FORECAST ISSUES...WITH HEAVY RAIN...HIGHER
    ELEVATION SNOW...AND A NE WIND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

    2 - SANDY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE OR
    AFTER LANDFALL...BUT A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORCES NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT
    INLAND WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND A SURGE OF TROPICAL
    MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DYING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS TOO
    WOULD PRODUCE AN ELEVATION SNOW EVENT...WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND
    POSSIBLY SOME WIND TOO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

    3 - SANDY MOVES HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA AND BECOMES A FANTASTIC FISH
    STORM. ANOTHER SYSTEM EVOLVES AND SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
    REGION...OR MAYBE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT EVEN EXIST.
     
  13. hiker

    hiker Well-Known Member

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    I have family working independant contracting jobs at Brunswick nuclear plant and staying in a pair of campers on Oak Island, I didn't even know anything like this was going on. Thanks for the info. At least they are a few blocks from the ocean.

    I know these storms can come at odd times. I was staying in the Shenandoah NP in November a few years ago and one hit the Gulf Coast and came through. It dumped several inches of snow overnight in the Shenandoah and Monongahalas, and really made for one awesome week of hiking in the snow!

    [​IMG]

    Bear Rocks, Dolly Sods National Wilderness Area in the Monongahala NF, West Virginia
     
    #1833 hiker, Oct 24, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2012
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    No problem Hiker...here is a great look at the future track of the storm. Now this track has it coming in around R.I. but you get the point why it goes out to sea and then gets pulled by a front charging in from the left...cold meets tropic and then boom. Just h it the animate button on the left and watch to the south...the hurricane and to the west..the cold front.

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    one thing I have noticed on todays models is that it no longer is being forecasted as a cat 2 or 3 storm when it gets up here..in fact it stays cat 1 the whole time..that is very good news. Now the models are in the mid range and they start to get a bit crazy. By friday..it will be pretty much set.
     
  16. nyscene911

    nyscene911 Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    Yeah, we're fucked.
     
  17. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Hey Jay

    When will we know if we are fucked for sure? Above picture ain't pretty.

    Edit: Sorry. You say by Friday it should be pretty much set. Time to go and buy some stuff before Friday.I am afraid once it is confirmed on Friday, people will flock to Walmart, Home Depot etc.
     
    #1837 Brook!, Oct 25, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2012
  18. hiker

    hiker Well-Known Member

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    Don't park under a tree, and I hope you have good shingles on the roof. Good luck.
     
  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    two answers to this question and now its important. You are never truly fucked until the storm is done what the models said and is heading right for you.

    With that said...when all the models agree on everything except the exact landfall...WE ARE FUCKED.

    2 OF THE 3 major models have said we are screwed but the american model has steady very consistent until 1pm today...and its official....WE are screwed.

    Heres the bottom line..anyone between Maryland and Long Island including all of N.J. somewhere between there is landfall..and i can say with 90 percent certainty that is now the case...all the models agree.

    There will be nice differences but not huge differences with how hard we get screwed...but everyone in that area and 100 miles inland will get their storm of the century starting late sunday night..and ending late tuesday night.

    Once the storm hits land it STALLS and I mean it goes from NYC to lets say Windham NY..a 2 hour drive in about 24 hours..very slow moving. Will provide more details and Im not into scaring the crap out of people..but in those areas...hopefully you have a generator...just be ready.
     
    #1839 jaywayne12, Oct 25, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2012
  20. RevisOfNazareth

    RevisOfNazareth New Member

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    Allstate customers can reach their catastrophe team at 1-800-54-Storm. When I worked there they had like 60% of all the policies in NY. I don't know any other numbers, but thought that might help a good bit of you. Call that number once the shingles start flying off.

    Anyway, it's a smaller storm than we were used to in the southeast, but since you're already a foot below sea level this one will potentially be ugly. So, if you live within 5 blocks of the water or out on the island/other beach areas and are on the water don't fuck around with evacuations.

    Good luck.
     

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