This was printed in today's Times. More negative than positive, I would say, and making many of the points made here. October 7, 2012 Strategy in Draft May Leave Jets Short of DepthBy BEN SHPIGEL FLORHAM PARK, N.J. — Behind the desk in Mike Tannenbaum’s office, a three-sided whiteboard hangs on the wall. It is loaded with magnets, one for each player on the Jets’ roster — a visual representation of the underperforming and the overachieving, the injured and the fit, and everybody in between. In truth, that board is more than a depth chart. For Tannenbaum, it is a daily puzzle to solve and a stark reminder of the decisions he has made during his six and a half years as general manager. Only two current Jets, Sione Po’uha and Brandon Moore, predate Tannenbaum’s tenure, which began in February 2006. Everyone else has arrived under his watch, a team created in his image, built to his, and Coach Rex Ryan’s, specifications. Not long ago, they reached two straight A.F.C. championship games. But now the Jets, after a disastrous finish to 2011, are reeling again, even at 2-2. They are struggling to score, pass, run, defend, tackle and keep their fans’ interest, which waned in the second half of a 34-0 home defeat last week to San Francisco. Their flaws — a paucity of offensive playmakers, a meager pass rush and an erratic quarterback — are no less obvious in October than they were in August or June or April, long before season-ending injuries claimed Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes. At the Jets’ season-ending news conference in January, Tannenbaum vowed that he would field a better team. He was asked in an interview last week whether he had fulfilled that mission. “Absolutely,” Tannenbaum said. “I still think we have a chance to accomplish everything we want to.” That is, the Super Bowl. The expectations have not changed, even if by any realistic measure they should. On Monday night, the Jets will play undefeated Houston with Clyde Gates, Lex Hilliard, Konrad Reuland and Jason Hill in line to play significant roles on offense. None were with the team in training camp. Roster-depleting injuries are inevitable, and the Jets — with Holmes, Revis, Dustin Keller and Stephen Hill — have endured a disproportionate share. But there are teams who seem better equipped to overcome them. “I think there are some teams whose last eight or nine guys are pretty darn strong,” said Daniel Jeremiah, a former scout for three N.F.L. teams who now works for NFL Network. “I don’t think this is the case here.” When last season ended, the Jets were like a house in disrepair. They needed to fix the boiler (right tackle), paint the walls (proven receiver) and refinish the floors (impact pass rusher). They wound up spackling holes, replacing the well-worn carpet (safety upgrades with LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell) and buying an HD television for a guest bedroom (Tim Tebow). However much the Jets adore Tebow and value his versatility, so far he has been little more than a decoy and a distraction. “I’ll give him a grade of incomplete,” Tannenbaum said. “Let’s have that discussion in December.” A discussion could have been held about Wayne Hunter’s poor performance last December, when the Eagles exposed him. The Jets misjudged his ability to replace Damien Woody, and it took eight months — seven, counting their failed trade for Jeff Otah — before the situation became so untenable that, after allowing two and a half sacks in a preseason game against the Giants, Hunter was shipped to St. Louis. Realizing that he needed to infuse the offense with younger, faster players, Tannenbaum drafted Stephen Hill, longing for packages that would include Hill, Holmes, Keller, Jeremy Kerley and, at running back, Bilal Powell or Joe McKnight. By failing to add an established No. 2 complement to Holmes, the Jets heaped responsibility on Hill, who was rarely thrown to in a triple-option offense. Hill had a strong debut, but before being sidelined by a hamstring injury, he dropped two passes in Miami, including a potential touchdown. “The lack of explosive players at the skill positions on offense, that’s what jumps out at me,” Jeremiah said. “You’d like to have one dynamic weapon on the outside, which I don’t necessarily think they have. You’d also like to have a running back capable of hitting a home run, and they don’t have that.” That back would be Shonn Greene, who has been disappointing this season. Tannenbaum moved up to take Greene in the third round in 2009, an aggressive strategy that helped him select Keller, Revis, Mark Sanchez and David Harris but one that contrasted sharply with the methodology that Tannenbaum lauded as a senior at the University of Massachusetts. There, he wrote a paper — which earned an A, according to his professor, Lisa Pike Masteralexis — exploring how to construct a championship team. Analyzing the 49ers, Tannenbaum asserted that Bill Walsh’s preference for trading back to amass a high volume of selections built San Francisco’s core. Tannenbaum favors quality over quantity, often using his picks to trade up — or to acquire players with troubled pasts: Antonio Cromartie, Braylon Edwards, Holmes — while filling the back of his roster with practice-squad signings (Austin Howard) and waiver claims (Gates and Reuland). It can be a risky tactic. Of the 65 players on the Jets’ roster as of Friday, 26 were acquired through the draft, the ninth-lowest percentage in the N.F.L., according to the Elias Sports Bureau. “They have not, in my estimation, done a very good job of selecting players,” said the former Dallas executive Gil Brandt, who analyzes college players and the draft for NFL.com. Assessing their strategy, Brandt mentioned Bill Belichick of New England: “Why do you think Belichick trades and gets so many draft picks? Would you rather have two chances to win the lottery or one?” Tannenbaum has presided over seven drafts. The first three, with Eric Mangini as coach, produced a prominent bust in Vernon Gholston but also cornerstones like Revis, Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson, and valuable pieces like Brad Smith, Eric Smith and Leon Washington. In Ryan’s four drafts, the Jets have made 21 picks — tied with New Orleans for fewest in the N.F.L. Nineteen of the league’s 32 teams drafted a Pro Bowl player in that time, with three (Packers, Patriots, Steelers) taking multiple, but the Jets are not one of them. None of their players acquired for picks have been so honored, either. Recent selections like Muhammad Wilkerson, Kerley and Powell have revealed promise, but it is unclear whether their most prominent pick, Sanchez, will ever perform at a level worthy of being chosen fifth over all. Vlad Ducasse has yet to validate his second-round grade, and although the first-round pick Quinton Coples has fared capably at defensive end, he has yet to register the impact of Chandler Jones of New England, selected five spots later, who was named the A.F.C.’s top defensive rookie in September. Since Ryan’s arrival, the Jets have added several players with character issues, believing that he can reform them. It worked with Cromartie but not Holmes, whose petulance created a locker room rift. The Jets aspire to squeeze every drop of production out of a player before discarding him, though they have not always found suitable replacements for players considered replaceable: a dependable blocking tight end like Ben Hartsock; a reliable possession receiver like Jerricho Cotchery; a vertical threat like Edwards, though Hill is a raw approximation. “The best organizations that show sustainable success are the ones that can make the hard decisions,” Tannenbaum said. When Tannenbaum examines that whiteboard, he sees the results of those decisions. It is only going to get harder. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/s...ayers.html?ref=football&_r=0&pagewanted=print
Reading that article reminds me, you can put aside a lot of the back and forth on Tanny. Assessing Sanchez for example is a mixed bag. As is the tactic of trading up in the draft. But I don't see how there's much pro Tanny to find in the way they handled Hunter this off season. I horrid finish to 2011 is followed by extending his contract, and at $2.5 mil at that??? And then of course going well into pre-season before shipping him out, replacing him with someone only slightly better. In short, none of it makes any sense.
Tanny has gambled big time. If it had all worked out he'd look like a genius. It's not working out though. The Tebow trade in particular reeks of Tanny going for the home run just to find that the foundation is rotting.
Aside from the bad draft choices and overpaying a lot of players, what pisses me off the most is the cap hell we are in this year, last year and probably next.
a couple of things on Hunter. #1: he did a good job in 2010 replacing Woody and we nearly made the SN w/ him so I don't blame them for thinking they could correct his mistakes from 2011. #2: we guaranteed Holmes' salary for the year w/ hios roster bonus, how could we then cut Hunter? what message would that have served to a LR supposedly in disarray? Hunter almost comes to blows w/ Holmes and they get rid of Hunter?
They should've gotten rid of both of them. The Jets original mistake was keeping Holmes over Edwards.
I love Braylon but he hasn't done anything since leaving us so either way we would have been screwed. Losing Cotch hurt the most.
Bottom line is this, it's time for a change. Letting Tanny go without also handing out pink slips to the whole scouting department would be solving nothing. It's time to clean house and bring a new staff in here to shake things up and that should also start with the me GM's ability to make a decision on the HC. Woody Johnson needs to want to win BAD, more then anything else, and I don't feel he does. Unfortunately I believe that translates into more of the same. He doesn't strike me as a passionate owner, more so he strikes me as a guy just happy to say he owns a football team. Look, we can sit here and bring up the fact that Rex is the most successful Jets coach and the 2 AFC Championships, blah blah blah. The fact remains this team, in each of the past 2 seasons, has gone further away from success and that's should be unacceptable. Like the article said, do you think you made good on your vow to address this teams shortcomings, and improve its talent from last season, and Tannenbaums answer was "absolutely". For that alone he should be fired.
If the Jets start falling into a hole in the standings, it's time to trade away players and amass draft picks. This team needs to build through the draft. It boggles my mind that they haven't figured that out yet. All great teams build through the draft. The Jets are trying to build through FA just like the Rangers tried to do in the mid-90s to early-00s. Drafting well is what builds champions. The Jets needs to build a top notch college scouting department if they want to build a successful program.
I don't see that article as positive at all. I see it as descriptive of a day-to-day tactician who has no understanding at all of the forces in play over any period longer than the shelf-life of a 28 or 29 year old vet free agent.
Tannenbaum is only gonna be as strong as the personnel department. He's fantastic at cap management,risk assessment,contract negotiations, being a step ahead within his preparation & executing on transactions. He knows more about evaluating talent than many believe. He understudied both Al Davis & Parcells at scouting events for years. He's no dumbie.With that said it is not his strength. I think it's time to move on from Bradway.His regime has shown the ability to pick out DB's,O-linemen & run stoppers in the front 7. But this group has failed to deliver on offensive skill positions, pass rushers, & frankly explosive big play ability all together. What you end up w/ is a big stout group that doesn't give up alot of big plays..but lacks the explosion/big play element to hang with the more dynamic rosters on gameday. For what seems like a decade now..we've seen offensive philosophies heading into big road contests as "Don't lose the game. Weather the storm". That playing scared tactic hasn't won anything.It's time to be the aggressor...make teams have to adjust to the Jets...not the other way around. Maybe Scott Cohen is the answer. I've read in acouple places he is known for his eye for skill players. He must've leanred a thing or 2 in his time in Philly. Maybe his voice gets louder in the war room moving forward. This team desperately needs speed,explosion & big play ability.
Tannenbaum bears his measure of blame for this fiasco. That being said, this team was constructed for a 2008-2010 run and they tried to squeeze one more year out of it last year. In hindsight, he should have just gutted the team this year to set-up for 2014 and now the Jets are looking at a scenario where they probably won't be competitive until 2015. Now he is deep sh&t and I don't see a scenario where he and Rex are back next year unless they make the playoffs. Even an 8-8 scenario is fools gold because Woody may think that a couple of key injuries blew the season early for the team which is simply just not the case. The Jets have stunk both with and without Revis & Holmes. I think it is impossible to tell how good or bad Sanchez is really this year. He is without his starting #1 and #2 WRs, starting TE and starting FB and is expected to perform miracles. That being said it doesn't matter anymore whether Sanchez or Tebow are out there for the rest of the year, because the Jets will be lucky to squeeze out another 5-6 wins. The bright side is that for whomever is the GM and coach next year, the Jets do have some silver lining in the clouds. First, they will have $39 million coming off the cap with Holmes, Smith, Pace, Scott, Pouha, Smith and Tebow being cut. They will have the option to either re-sign Revis to a much more affordable contract extension. Unfortunately if they decide to trade they aren't getting much more than a 1st round pick. Unfortunately they will also be looking at bringing in a new QB, RB, RG, RT, #1 WR, TE, 2 LBs (depending upon the scheme) and a safety.
its funny - IMO, the 2001 draft was a very productive draft for bradway - 3 very good players for the first 3 picks - moss, jordan, mackenzie. unfortunately the jets couldn't enjoy the potential of all 3 players due to various issues. after 2001 bradways record is subpar culminating with the mike nugent/doug jolley gem. i agree move on from bradway, etc.
Yes. but doesn't risk assessment include the risks involved in deferring present compensation to future caps and giving players of questionable character guaranteed contracts? I just don't see Tannenbaum as good at risk assessment at this point. I think he makes a lot of mistakes and that generally those mistakes are designed to prop the current year, making him look good at the moment, but damage the team's long-term prospects. Part of the problem on the Jets is that the tension between the head coach and front office roles is blurred to the point of non-existence. It's the job of the head coach to get everything he can out of the current year, that's how he holds onto his job. It's the job of the GM to put the team on a strongly competitive front over a period of years and make sure that the bottom doesn't fall out. On the Jets everybody seems to be banging the drum only for the current season. So the tactical maneuvers are all about making the current season the best it possibly can be. The diminishing returns on that posture are obvious and what's missing is the front office role in keeping the franchise healthy. It definitely is time to move on from Bradway, however I have a bad feeling that the Jets will move on for the wrong reason, using him as a scapegoat for the current difficulties and not actually fixing the breakdown in the front office in that process. The Jets really should clean house after this year. They're not the franchise they could be and now the attendance is beginning to follow the results. They need fresh eyes on the situation and they need those eyes to have real clout. Otherwise we're just going to go through another of these 4 or 5 year cycles from bad to not quite good enough and back.
Terry Bradway's faults became clear on the first major move he made in the draft for the Jets. He was sitting on the 19 with a player he was in love with falling to him in Santana Moss and he could not just sit still and hope that Moss got to him. He traded a 4th and a 6th to the Steelers to move up 3 slots and get his man. Ok, so Santana Moss turned out to be a pretty good player, albeit not with the Jets. The value was there in the player but not in the way the pick was acquired and that method of acquisition was one that the Jets have not been able to get away from in the decade that followed. For an alternate view of how things could have gone just consider the Jets sitting tight on 19 and what could have happened: 1. Santana Moss could have fallen to them anyway. There was no guarantee that Seattle or Detroit was going to take a WR on either pick in the interval. They both took offensive linemen. There was no guarantee that anybody else was going to trade up for Moss in the 2 pick gap. Only two WR's were taken later in the 1st round. The Steelers were going to take Casey Hampton one way or the other. They just got a couple of extra picks out of the Jets in the process. 2. Assuming somebody did trade up for Moss there was still a lot of talent on the board for the Jets on the 19. The guys taken after Moss on the 16 and before the late 1st included Steve Hutchinson, Jeff Backus, Casey Hampton, Adam Archuletta, Nate Clements, Will Allen and Duece McAllister. The Jets made major moves and free agent signings over the next few years to get defensive linemen. offensive linemen, cornerbacks, safeties and even runningbacks. They could have just taken the best player available on their pick in 2001 on the 19 and had more picks to deal with other issues. Now on to the ramifications of the pick. 3. Santana Moss wasn't even a good fit for the Jets long-term. He was a good fit for Vinny Testaverde with a very strong arm throwing to him but he wasn't the right guy for Chad Pennington. Chad needed a guy who specialized in slants and quickouts and running the West Coast tree. That was Laveranues Coles not Santana Moss. Bradway looked at the Jets and said "what do we need for Vinny next year?" and somehow the answer came up that the Jets needed a better version of Dedric Ward. Bradway didn't look at the Jets and say "what does our next QB need in terms of support?" If he'd looked at it that way he'd have been angling for Reggie Wayne not Santana Moss. 4. Because the Jets traded up they missed the opportunity to have a DT or OL fall to them naturally. So out of that we got two defensive linemen taken in the next two drafts in the first round and at great expense. We got an offensive line that deteriorated over time until it collapsed in 2005. Notably we only got one season of superior WR play out of Moss before he was sent out of town anyway, because he was not a good fit for the WCO and Chad. That was Terry Bradway's first pick for the Jets and yet it encapsulates their entire failed draft strategy since. Even their successful picks are all trade ups. The team does not know how to pick a winner naturally and so they artificially create value at great expense in terms of depth and overall talent. They don't even get superstars now when they make the picks. Just average players. That's the problem. The Jets talent acquisition process is a few degrees off normal and when you change course by a few degrees the distance from normal quickly becomes extreme when looked at over a period of years.
That's the enigma of risk assessment. It's never exact, and you have to factor in organizational goals when making your ultimate decision. In this case this is a championship starved franchise that's owner is trying to get away w/ charging premium ticket prices for an average product. Jets were close in 09 & 10. Tannenbaum attempted to push accordingly. He handled the timely departures of Alan Faneca & Thomas Jones quite nicely. He got alot of criticism for those moves. Right now I see the biggest gripe for this team in the lack of explosion/playmaking ability & allowing this LB corps to become old,slow & overpaid for the second time in a decade(See Jones/Lewis sometime around 2003). The "Quality over quantity" draft philosophy is an interesting one. If it is a top heavy draft class or the team is a player or 2 away like in 09/10..that philosophy can indeed push you over the top. But it can't work as a stable long term fixture for acquiring talent. Whether he wants to admit it or not there IS a difference in talent between a 5th round prospect & a UDFA. If he does end up keeping his job he needs to use whatever immediate cap space this team has on explosive playmakers. The draft should be about trading down, acquiring picks & re-building the depth of this roster.
