The third preseason game is over, and since most of the starters won't play week 4 this is as much as we're going to see before the first game. The Bills game is a game I think the Jets can win, based on what I've seen from both teams so far. The Jets' defense is clearly stronger than the Bills' offense for a few reasons. First matchup, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller and O-line vs Jets run D: Fred Jackson is a very good RB no doubt, but the Jets run D is prepared to be one of the best in the league, because they are so deep with run stopping specialists. Sione Pouha, Kenrick Ellis, Mike DeVito, and Muhammad Wilkerson are all stout run blockers, and Quinton Coples is so athletic he is far from a liability. All of these players are going to be tough to block effectively, especially with the starting LB's all with better run game than coverage or pass-rush (Bryan Thomas, Bart Scott, David Harris, Calvin Pace). The Bills O-line is average at best, and will be on the loosing end of most of the battles. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are both going to do the most damage with screen passes and passes to the flats, as the Jets still lack speed at LB. LaRon Landry will be an asset agains't those plays, but not if he's caught on the other side of the field. Jackson will make a few plays, since he is one of the top RB's in the league but he won't win the overall battle. Second matchup, Stevie Johnson and Donald Jones and David Nelson and Scott Chandler vs Jets secondary: Johnson may beat Darrelle Revis a few times, but Revis Island won't allow more than 50 yards total. Antonio Cromartie is also going to win his matchup with Jones many more times than not. Kyle Wilson is the best #3 CB in the league, and David Nelson is definitely not the best slot WR in the league... aka he will catch a couple but again not win the battle. Scott Chandler will be covered will by LaRon Landry, and will only only have a real advantage in the red zone because of his height. Third matchup, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills O-line vs The Jets pass-rush and secondary: Fitz is going to be facing a lot of 3rd and long situations because of the lack of effectiveness of the run game on 1st and 2nd down. The Jets 3rd down package will be aimed at this with a 4-3 front and speedy LB's (Harris, DeMario Davis, and another I'm unsure of) with the cover corners doing there thing. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to have a rough day I think. Stay tuned for Jets offense vs Bills defense.
The Jets offense is hit or miss, more miss lately. First matchup, Jets RB's and O-line vs Bills run D: The Bills D-Line has been upgraded primarily in pass-rush, not in run defense. Shonn Greene had a good game last year against basically the same players, with the addition on Mario Williams. The two big DT's Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams will make it tough to send Greene up the middle but neither Chris Kelsay nor Mark Anderson enhance the run D. Past that, OLB Nick Barnett is a strong point, but Kelvin Sheppard and Arthur Moats (is he the starter?) are average at best. I don't think the Bills will have a whole lot more luck against the run than last year. The Jets O-line is not bad in run blocking, and the major flaw before Wayne Hunter's demotion was pass blocking. There are still 3 pro bowlers on the line, in Nick Mangold, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and Brandon Moore, and Austin Howard is a big ? Second matchup, Jets receivers vs Bills secondary: Aaron Williams isn't going to be able to cover Santonio Holmes by himself every play, so there will need to be double coverage coming from either Jairus Byrd or Lito Shephard. George Wilson is underrated, and will likely help vs the Jets leading receiver TE Dustin Keller (if he is healthy). Stephon Gilmore would be exposed, but he is lucky in that his first game is going to be against the unpolished rookie WR Stephen Hill. Hill may get the best of him on a few deep routes, but that will only matter if Hill doesn't drop the pass. I expect Hill to catch a deep TD pass from Mark Sanchez, likely off a play action pass. Overall I'd classify this as an even fight, unless Keller is hurt, then I'd say advantage Bills. Third matchup, Mark Sanchez and the o-line vs the Bills pass-rush and secondary: Needless to say, Mario Williams is a daunting pass-rusher. He can't however solve all of the Bills' issues on D, and because I think the Jets run game to be successful, I think play action will help Sanchez have a relatively successful game. M. Williams will probably have two sacks against new RT Austin Howard, but I think Sanchez will stay composed and throw multiple TD's, one deep to Stephen Hill breaking away, one to an RB (Greene I bet) and one to Santonio Holmes. The 3 TD's will be primarily because of run game success, not because Sanchez will have an overall dominating day.
This isn't true. This year's Bills line is a whole different animal. Kyle Williams was out for the season after week 5, so the Jets never faced him. Dareus was the only constant on the line that carries over to this year. Kelsay is there too, but he'll probably split time with Mark Anderson. With the switch to the 4-3, you'll see Dareus and Kyle Williams in the middle and they should be pretty stout against the run. Mario Williams is an all-purpose DE, not just a pass rusher, either. If the Bills LBs do their job, the Bills are going to be hard to run against this year. At the very least, they will be MUCH improved. Don't forget that the Bills have Dave Wannstedt at Defensive Coordinator this year, too. Our last one was terrible. Also, how do you assume that Aaron Williams is going to cover your best receiver? He is not our #1 CB by a longshot. The Bills secondary is not a bad one, and they should look a lot better with an effective pass-rush, if it's there. I don't think our depth chart at CB is even worked out exactly at this point, so I wouldn't go assuming what guy is going to cover so-and-so. Watch that assumption that the Jets will be able to run the ball. Again, this d-line looks to be pretty formidable this year. Besides Mario, we also picked up Mark Anderson to rush the passer. Add #3 overall pick Marcell Dareus with a year under his belt and Kyle Williams (a VERY good player), and the Bills should be able to get pressure without blitzing, especially if the Jets can't shore up that RT spot. LOL at predicting 3 TDs passes by Sanchez and telling us exactly how they will happen. I find it a little interesting that you do not even mention Tebow's name. I really think that he is going to be a part of Rex's game-plan, don't you?
@ Feldspar Understandable about Kyle Williams, I'm not underestimating him just forgot he was out. At the same time, and and Dareus will be in the middle, and knowing that I don't expect the Jets to run up the middle often. Other than forgetting K Williams was out, I would say I included the other factors. If Aaron Williams isn't your #1, who is? I felt like I was forgetting someone from last year but I can't think of who... and are they out with injury this weekend? I listed who I thought would make the most sense, and I never said the secondary was bad. I gave props to George Wilson who I would say is the best player in the Bills' secondary in my humble opinion. I would say these are predictions, not assumptions, I am not assuming any of this will happen. I listed the ways I thought the Jets are most likely to score, based on how I have evaluated the teams. Am I making guarantees? Absolutely not, just my guesses. I didn't mention Tebow or the Wildcat because I don't think they will affect the game much. I think they will add rushing yards to the Jets game totals, but I don't think they will be used much, and they won't effect the Primary Jets offense much because the Bills will only be thinking about how to stop them when they are on the field. I don't think that package is significant enough to score a TD or gain enough yards for Sparano to keep it on the field long. I feel like all you've done is say that you disagree that the Jets will be successful in the run "if the Bills LBs do their job". I've specifically indicated where and why I think the Jets will win or loose match-ups, so feel free to be more specific about your opinion.
I've watched the Jets a few times this preseason. The 3 corners IMO literally make the entire defense because on 3rd downs they blitz just about all the linebackers pretty frequently. The problem is, no one is open because the corners are so good even when left alone with their men. IMO, its going to be vitally important to the Bills offense to get Freddie and CJ going in both the run and pass game. Chandler will need to play well also. On defense, the only person I'm scared of is Keller. Hopefully he wont be at full strength.
I was listening to Bills sportstalk radio last week, they were going through the matchups for week 1, and comparing the teams. "The Jets defense isn't what it used to be... They "might" have an advantage in the secondary" - was said, homerism at its finest. Comical. I would argue the Jets LBs and Secondary vs. the Bills is the biggest gap between the two teams if you are comparing units. Everything else is relatively close, the Bills with some advantages and the Jets with some. A key to that game will be if the Jets running game can get past the front line of Buffalo's D. They have some hosses up front, but their LBs have looked weak all preseason. If the Jets can get to that second level frequently it could be a great day running the football week 1. I would also run right at Mario Williams to tire him out and get him thinking about the run instead of teeing off on Sanchez. I think the Jets will win, despite the way their offense has looked this preseason. Its tough to win on the road week 1 and I expect it to be a low scoring game, with the Jets featuring the run game a lot. I also expect an INT or two from Fitzpatrick which will help the Jets weak offense with a short field.
Jets defense looks a lot better now than it did last season. The only advantage the Bills have is their D line and even that is not as big a gap as we originally thought. Our secondary, LBs, and the coaching is all much better.
I think the game basically comes down to the Jets running game. If we get Greene going and control the ball, the Jets defense should be able to hold the Bills offense down with relative ease. If not, then we could get into a situation reminiscent of last season (where the defense gets worn down over the course of the game, and the opposition eventually breaks through in the 4th.)
