They were discussing this on Mike & Mike this morning. http://thebiglead.com/index.php/201...ick-an-extra-point-before-the-fourth-quarter/ For some reason I can't post the entire article, if someone else can I'd appreciate it.
No. no, no. I don't care how the math works out. The 2 pt attempts that Tebow misses on in losses will turn into "Ryan is a nitwit" type press on the back pages of the tabloids. Not worth the few extra points and likely zero wins the Jets get out of going for 2 on every attempt.
No because you become one dimensional anytime you start doing something repeatedly. Part of the reason it works is because it's used strategically and sporadically.
If you slightly improve on the average rate, obviously you'd gain points over the course of the season. Then there's this:
I think no. Although you might be able to get above 50% on two point conversions (and therefore score more total points), the single extra point is more predictable and reliable. You can't afford to lose a game because of a couple of missed two point conversions -- and it's bound to happen. You don't know when the failures will be. You can't be sure that it will even out enough within one game to do anything other than make things crazy. Better do kick extra points and then use the 2 point conversion in key spots when strategy dictates.
I want the Jets to go for it every time on 4th and 3 or less regardless of field position. The Lord ain't afraid of no field position.
The mathematics of this whole is starting to slowly circle in on the whole "Tebow thing." That's how he did it in college. Each set of downs is not unlike a goal line situation (with the sticks being the goal line). If you can get to at least 3rd and 5, Florida (Urban and Tebow) would start thinking "two shots, I can get this." So each play was a combination or read-audible, or Tebow was allowed to take off if he thought he could get it. In a spread out formation and with the extra blocker, the prospect of stopping Tebow twice under five yards is not good. It's one reason his footwork for passing is so atrocious up until now -- every play he used to run, he was primed to dive as a runner if he saw something. His entire body mechanics is having to change.
I'm for it completely! I've always wondered why teams are so reluctant to do this actually, I didn't read the article but isn't it right around 50% anyway as far as the league average in going for 2. 50% getting 2pts vs. 100% getting 1, what's the difference? I have also wondered why teams always elect to pass to get the 2-pt conversion when they have to go for it. I think people need to stop thinking about it as a conversion and more like just being at the 2 yard line, you never would make yourself so one-dimensional with 5 wideouts in that position normally. I know there is alot of tebow haters around, but one thing that can't be denied is that he is an absolute beast to stop by the goal line. I would take my chances that teams won't be able to stop him by the goal line to get the 2 points everytime. Think about it, he ought to get in way more than 50% of the time.. 70% .. 80% .. 90%.. all are very realistic.. why not get an extra point?
It's not as reliable within a short sample. Say, for example, you fail on two in a row to open a game. Now you have 12 points instead of 14. On your next touchdown, you're thinking "I have to stay with it, to give myself a chance of making up ground." Say you get it on the third -- now you're at 20 points instead of 21. Lots of games are 4 touchdowns or less -- you can't be sure that you'll get 2 of them. I guess the thinking is "some games you will win because you get 3 or 4 of them." But really, as long as extra points are almost 100%, you're almost "buying" that 50% success rate for no risk. For it to be worth it, I think you'd need to get the success percentage of 2 point conversions significantly higher than 50%.
If Rex was an established head coach with multiple Super Bowl rings, sure go for it and try it out. But he doesn't have job security and I don't think he would try this every time. Although, Tebow would be the holder for extra point and field goals, so there is that added dimension if the Jets want to throw a curveball This isn't professional football, but a coach took an idea like this and went to the extreme: http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888
Good response, I see what you are saying.. But the core of my sort of argument with Tebow is that he would be significantly higher than the 50%. He has shown this in the past (his short yardage statistics) and ultimately if you practice all week to go for two everytime than no matter what you would have to be better than the 50% average where teams might practice a little once in a while. Also, There's also way more of an advantage you get from a two point conversion than just the 1 extra point, it dictates the entire sequence of the game. Think about it: Jets are up 3-0 vs. Miami in the first quarter, Sanchez hits Keller for a TD and Rex brings in Tebow who picks up the conversion. 11-0 Jets in the first quarter - they went from being up by a field goal to essentially 3 scores instantly. The funky scores you get from two point conversions really can mess with a team that doesn't go for two.
Good reasoning for not doing it. The key is obviously how much more than 50% can Tebow realistically make 2 point attempts.
Essentially it is because the opposing team isn't going to go for 2 early in the game. If its late in the 4th, its a 2 score game but in the situation I laid out, Miami isn't going to go for 2 - 11-0 might as well be 12-0.
