Let's put some Math on the miracle

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by JFToLong, Jan 1, 2012.

  1. JFToLong

    JFToLong Banned

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    Ok, what would it take:

    Well, we can change the numbers, but let's lay out the methodology:


    Probabilities:
    Jets win- 55%
    Bengals lose- 80%
    Raiders or Broncos lose- 60%
    Titans lose - 45%

    .55 x .8 x .6 x .45 = .1188

    About a 12% chance according to my probabilities
     
    #1 JFToLong, Jan 1, 2012
  2. RobertTheJr

    RobertTheJr Member

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    Using conditional probability would be better in my opinion.

    Given the Jets win, what is the probability that they make the playoffs? Because - if they lose, who cares about the other numbers.

    The probability of the jets making the playoffs given that they win is around 22%.
     
    #2 RobertTheJr, Jan 1, 2012
  3. Section 336

    Section 336 Well-Known Member

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    About right but I would increase Raiders or Broncos closer to 70%.
    and Titans lose to 60- 65%.
    Texans will come to play and the Titans blow.

    Still less than 20% - even though each individual piece of the puzzle is more likely to happen than not.
     
    #3 Section 336, Jan 1, 2012
  4. JFToLong

    JFToLong Banned

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    I agree with you actually that conditional prob is more appropriate.
     
    #4 JFToLong, Jan 1, 2012
  5. TNJet

    TNJet Well-Known Member

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    However, when you factor in the Schotty variable it reduces our chances to 11%.
     
    #5 TNJet, Jan 1, 2012
  6. Nilton

    Nilton Active Member

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    Are those calculations before or after the texans sat foster Daniels and Joseph?
     
    #6 Nilton, Jan 1, 2012
  7. wildthing202

    wildthing202 Active Member

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    I like their chances better without those guys Andre Johnson+Dressen+Tate > Foster & Daniels not to mention Joseph is not the Revis of their D, it won't collapse just because he missed a game. The back-ups are more than capable of covering Tenn's lackluster WR's.
     
    #7 wildthing202, Jan 1, 2012
  8. RobertTheJr

    RobertTheJr Member

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    Let's hope that you are right. Ben Tate needs to step up.
     
    #8 RobertTheJr, Jan 1, 2012
  9. NotSatoshiNakamoto

    NotSatoshiNakamoto Rookie

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    Yea I think I'd put the Titans losing at about 25% at this point. Maybe less.
     
    #9 NotSatoshiNakamoto, Jan 1, 2012
  10. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Jets win: 70%

    Titans Lose: 20%

    Oakland OR Denver Loses: 50%

    Baltimore Wins: 80%


    Our Chances: About 6% or about 1 in 15.
     
    #10 JetsKickAss, Jan 1, 2012
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