Assuming the Colts end up with the 1st pick: If the Colts decide to stick with Peyton and pass on Andrew Luck, I would have to think they would trade that pick. Some team desperate for a QB should be willing to give up a ton for Luck, and that haul should provide the Colts more value than any 1 player they could draft in that spot. What do you think they could get back in terms of draft picks?
There's been lots of a talk about this already. Apparently, because Luck will be the top player, the pick is worth 3 firsts and 3 seconds.
In terms of threads here, or just in other articles? I'm sure plenty of people have written articles about it. I didn't notice a particular thread about it, although it certainly wouldn't surprised me if it has been discussed here, as well.
It will be interesting to see all the first round trades this year. I think the old points system is broken now with the rookie cap. The #1 four years ago was worth far less than this year for salary reasons, you are paying the guy half what you were. Cam Newton a QB #1 pick got 4years $22M under the rookie wage scale. Bradford the year before got 6 years $78M.
Just in sports media. I've mentioned this in other threads before, but starting a thread about it isn't a big deal.
I agree that the rookie wage scale makes early picks extremely attractive rather than something that in most years a team is desperate to get out of. I could even see the Patriots starting to move up to get impact players to make the most of Tom's remaining years rather than forever trading back and down.
Definitely more than ever, but it might be a buyer's market this year. Most of the recent shitty teams have invested a significant pick in a QB the last couple years. So who's buying... Miami, Washington... Philly? ...
It's looking like the Colts are going to end up with the pick. Can you see them winning 2 or 3 games this year? I really can't. So let's assume the Colts get the 1st pick. You could get Andrew Luck, who even though he's a great prospect, you really don't know for sure if he's going to live up to the hype.... plus you still have Peyton Manning. You could hold onto both and let Luck sit the bench and learn from Manning for the next 3 years until his contract is up. But, if you were to trade that #1 pick to a team desperate for a QB (which there are a lot of), I could imagine you could get at least two 1st round picks and probably a 2nd round too. (The Bengals just got two 1st round picks for Carson Palmer, a 30 year old QB). Imagine how good those picks could help improve your team that already has a rock solid QB... And Peyton still has years left to play. To me it seems like the wise thing to do is to trade the pick and build the rest of the team.
I would guess, even though Manning is among the best to ever play the position, that the Colts could get more for the #1 pick this year than they could for Manning. You can't over-state the value of having a franchise QB, and Luck is supposedly as sure a thing as there is. The only reason the Patriots are still competing is Tom Brady. Take him off the current roster and the team is probably not even .500. The Jets are, overall, a more talented team right now, but the gap between Brady and Sanchez is what makes up the difference. If they trade Manning, they probably get a first round pick and a little more (maybe a 2nd and a 3rd, or a high pick next year). Trade the #1 pick to a team desperate for Luck, and you could probably get this year's #1, next year's #1, and a mix of other picks and/or players.
This is a little misleading. While the #1 pick is objectively more valuable because it now costs less, the same is true of the #2 overall pick, the #3, etc. So, at least as far as trading only picks is concerned, it may not be as broken as you think. Certainly picks should be worth more in deals for vets, though.
Not exactly. the price differential between top 10- 15 or so spots is much bigger than the lower half of the round. The rookie cap makes a huge difference to the top few spots where salaries were ridiculous, but not much at the lower picks. the top picks you are saving 20-30 million over the course of the contract. In the twenties you are saving less than $10 million.
I was going to start the same thread. Given the can't miss hype around Luck and the rookie wage scale, and depending on where in the draft the acquiring team is picking, I would guess the 1st round pick for the next 3 years. Or a team's entire 1-7 draft (remember Williams?) + something the following year. It's going to be a massive haul.
Fair enough. Not as dramatic as I thought you thought, but also less dramatic than my post indicated.
Yeah I didn't mean it was totally broken, but the low end of the round, and future firsts are worth less in comparison to the top of the round than they used to. I don't think it will make a huge impact, but you might see the conservative value based drafters like the Patriots or Steelers try to move up, or at the least de-emphasize moving down. The teams I'm really interested to see the strategy of are the Pats andthe Bengals. They should have two picks in the 20's, will they trade up, trade out or stand pat.
bengals should stand pat and try to build the offense around Dalton. Although if they made a trade up for trent richardson damn that would be an awesome triple threat. pats as always will select one player and trade the other one for more picks
I could see the Bengals going after LaMichael James. A speedy back like him would work wonders with Dalton and AJ Green, talk about a triple threat there.
I could see it, but he is tiny. I do think they should look for a RB in the late first or the second. If they trade up it should be for an elite passrusher or corner. Their needs look like G, CB, DE, RB, WR. WR and RB are the easiest to get later, so CB and G in the first makes a lot of sense, or DE, G.
