1 - CIN 6-2 - PIT, @BAL, CLE, @PIT, HOU, @STL, AZ, BAL 2 - HOU 6-3 - @TB, BYE, @JAX, ATL, @CIN, CAR, @IND, TEN 3 - NE 5-3 - @ NYJ, KC, @PHI, IND, @WAS, @DEN, MIA, BUF 4 - KC 4-4 - DEN, @NE, PIT, @CHI, @NYJ, GB, OAK, @DEN 5 - BAL 6-2 - @SEA, CIN, SF, @CLE, IND, @SD, CLE, @CIN 6 - PIT 6-3 - @CIN, BYE, @ KC, CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE =========================================== NYJ 5-3 - NE, @ DEN, BUF, @WAS, KC, @PHI, NYG, MIA BUF 5-3 - DAL, @MIA, @NYJ, TEN, @SD, MIA, DEN, NE TEN 4-4 - @CAR, @ATL, TB, @BUF, NO, @IND, JAX, @HOU SD 4-4 - OAK, @CHI, DEN, @JAX, BUF, BAL, @DET, @OAK OAK 4-4 - @SD, @MIN, CHI, @MIA, @GB, DET, @KC, SD DEN 3-5 - @KC, NYJ, @SD, @MIN, CHI, NE, @BUF, KC (AFC West teams are only included because their division is so close, it is extremely unlikely they produce a wild card team) CLE - 3 games out of wild card or division JAX - 4 games out of wild card or division MIA - 5 games out wild card, 4 out of division IND - 6 games out of wild card or division Notable: CIN plays BAL & PIT 4 times in the last 8 weeks. CIN has 5 divisional games in their last 8. NYJ plays NFC teams 3 out of the 4 games in weeks 13-16. So what does everyone think? I am not sold on CIN, and really doubt that three teams will be sent from the North because they play each other so much in the second half of the season. The West and South are only going to send one team, so as long as we are not third behind the Pats and Bills we should have a playoff spot. If we win next week then winning the division is very realistic. Everyone else's thoughts?
I like the way things are unfolding right now. With Pittsburgh falling to 6-3, only Cincinatti and Baltimore have fewer than three losses in the conference. As I said in another thread, I believe the two byes will be allocated to some combination of the Jets, the Pats, the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Texans. The next two weeks will change the picture greatly. If we can beat New England at home, which I'm confident we will, I don't see us losing to Denver. In that same span, Houston plays Tampa Bay this weekend and follows with a bye...Tampa Bay being a team that could definitely beat them. Pittsburgh plays the Bengals this weekend, and follows with a bye. The Ravens have Seattle and then play the Bengals themselves. Best case scenario: we win our next two games, Houston falls to the Bucs, Cincinatti loses to the Steelers and beats Baltimore. If this happens, we're in control of our own destiny en route to the number one seed, improving to 7-3 as Houston falls to 6-4, and the three AFC North squads clock in at 7-3 as well. With Cincinatti playing the Ravens and Steelers again later in the season, this would be the ideal scenario. Lets keep our fingers crossed.
The Jets are 4-3 in the conference. If they lose to NE next week they'll be 4-4. I still think the Jets are needing to win 4 out of their 5 remaining conference games to get in as a wildcard. The easy path is to beat New England and then Buffalo and take the division.
I think SD has the West wrapped up, based on Carson Palmer sucking and the Chiefs schedule being brutal. There will be no wild card teams there. The Texans have the South wrapped up as well. There will be no wild card teams from here, and it looks like the Texans have an inside track to a first round bye, which is hard to believe.. but their schedule is a joke. The North is definitely going to come down to the Ravens and Steelers, and it looks like after tonight that the Ravens are in control of the division. The Bengals will fade due to their youth and tough schedule, but the Steelers are a near lock to make the playoffs with that easy schedule. Finally, the East.. after watching the Pats lately, I really think the Jets are the best team in the division.. and it's been a looooong time since I have felt that way. Obviously they have to prove it on the field next week, but I think this is their time to take over the division and get that home playoff game and maybe even a bye. The Pats will hang around all year, though so the Jets really can't afford any slip ups. The Bills will also hang around all year, but I fully expect them to fade and miss the playoffs.
This is where I'm at. Just win out the divisional games. The Jets should be able to beat KC, DEN, and WAS. That's 3 plus 3 divisional opponents. 6 wins = 11 total. That should do it hopefully. If not, win against the NYG or PHI and then we're talking first round bye. I said the Jets had to win 5 in a row for the division. 5 in a row would mean a Pats and DEN win, with 10 days to prepare for buffalo again. With that much time for Buffalo part 2, and it being at home, it can be 6 in a row, and the Jets are looking at owning the division by then.
So you are suggesting that 11-5 wouldn't get into the playoffs? Because the Jets are currently 5-3, with 5 games against AFC, and 3 against NFC. Only about once every decade a 11-5 team doesn't make the playoffs. If the Jets beat @DEN, KC, @WAS, @MIA (which they should) and then beat two out of NE, BUF, @PHI, NYG they'll end up 11-5. I doubt this year is a once in a decade occurrence. They'll make the playoffs if they get those wins.
Need Baltimore to win their conference.... Oakland rides and dies on McFadden and his health. I don't think he will be playing this Thursday, which means the Bolts will win and put OAK down in 4-5, which is good news for Jet fans since they hold the tiebreaker on NYJ and NYJ hold the tiebreaker on SD. Buffalo has a pretty easy schedule compared to NE and NYJ, as they have yet to play the Dolphins this year and have gotten games with Philly and the Giants out of the way. Dallas if they can beat Buffalo would be huge. Cincy has a cake schedule which if they can go 2-3 between HOU, BALx2 and PITx2 would put them at 8-5 with games against St Louis, Arizona and Cleveland remaining. Safe to say they can at least win 2 of those games, possibly 3. Cincy is going to have 10+ wins due to a cake schedule.... Chiefs have to play NYJ, NE, SD, OAK, GB, CHI, DEN, and PIT left. I doubt KC can win even 3 of these remaining games so they are in deep, deep trouble with this recent loss vs Miami. They might be a 7 if not 8 win team. Chargers seem like a good bet to go to 9 or 10 wins. If you were to ask me, I think 9 wins gives you the AFC West this year. Its going to come down to PIT and the loser of NE/NYJ for the division. PIT holds the tiebreaker on NE, which spells trouble for NE but NYJ/PIT could come down to the wire as PIT hasn't lost to an NFC West team yet this year. PIT also has an easy schedule. There's a legit shot that the AFC North carries 3 playoff teams this season due to their cake schedule where they play the AFC South and NFC West. Jets need the AFC East, as they can get the No.2 or No.3 seed with it.
Cincy will be lucky to win 1 out of their tough 5 games. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them drop one of the should win games, they're not going to end up better than 9-7.
Yep. The division is the easiest path to the playoffs. As for the wild card, Baltimore looks like they will take control of the AFC North. At this point, we're rooting hard against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the wild card. Everyone else doesn't scare me that much, though we'll be rooting against some teams later in the season. Obviously, root against any other AFC team fighting for a playoff spot when playing an NFC team or a bad AFC team, but I don't expect any to really be threats, minus Buffalo, only because they have the chance to beat us again. Of course, Pitt and Cincy play each other next week. So who do we root for? Do we want Pittsburgh to knock the Bengals back into reality and concede one wild card spot to them? That way, the one wild card spot would be wide open, with the Jets being the frontrunner ahead of the Bills, Bengals, and everyone else. Or do we want Cincy to win and keep both spots within reach? Beat New England, then beat Buffalo and Miami again, and win the division, and none of this wild card stuff matters.
So when the Bengals play the Ravens or Steelers (which they do 4 out of the remaining 8 weeks) they both get wins right? Your assumption is that the Bengals Ravens and Steelers will all equally share games. I sincerly doubt that will happen. One or two teams will come to the top. Bengals also have to play Houston. Both the Ravens and Steelers have to play the 49ers. Three teams will not come from the AFC North I can promise that.
Just for this, we will say CIN splits with BAL and splits with PIT... (This is based on who would be favorites in these matchups...this is no lock as we saw MIA over KC today and STL over NO last week) PIT remaining schedule: @ Cincinnati- L BYE @ Kansas City- W vs Cincinnati- W vs Cleveland- W @ San Francisco- L vs St. Louis- W @ Cleveland- W PIT can go 6-2 the rest of the way and get themselves 11 wins. BAL remaining schedule: @ Seattle- W vs Cincinnati- W vs San Francisco- L(Could throw this a win but lets just say a loss) @ Cleveland- W vs Indianapolis- W @ San Diego- L vs Cleveland- W @ Cincinnati- L 5-2.......11 wins CIN remaining schedule: vs Pittsburgh- W @ Baltimore- L vs Cleveland- W @ Pittsburgh- L vs Houston- L @ St Louis- W vs Arizona- W vs Baltimore- W 5-3.....11-5. That final game vs BAL is going to be big. Baltimore could rest guys carrying this tiebreaker on PIT if they can't advance higher than a 3 seed or 2 seed. They may very well go all out trying for a 1st Round BYE vs Houston or NE/NYJ likewise too. There is a legit shot a 10 win team is missing the playoffs in the AFC. Just have to hope it won't be the Jets.
The divisional games are critical. If we win all three of them we only need to tie our division opponents' record(s) to win the AFC East. That would suit me, though a bye would be nice too.
Nah, it's not too early but what we all need to remember is that weird shit WILL happen, as it always does. Teams will win games that shock us, some big teams will lose games we thought were in the bag so its hard to look at schedules and predict W's and L's even after week 9. Just look at Miami crushing KC yesterday in KC. I'm concerned about that Thursday night Denver game on 3 days rest after our Pats game. Don't like it one bit.
Despite that miserable 3 game stretch, we're exactly where we want to be at this point in the season: controlling our own destiny. If we win the rest of our division games, we'll be golden.
Ya its nice this year not to have to chase the pats. Just win next week and control our own destiny. When does that ever happen
The teams that Cincinatti has beaten in its six wins have a combined 15 wins between them. The defence is good and Dalton is better than anyone expected, but no way they keep this performance up.
division or bust - plain and simple. and if its the division - there is a shot at the 2 seed if things unfold as they have the past 2 weeks.
