I think he'll win it, but not that he deserves it. There is a portion of the writers who have planned to vote for him for months to prove pitchers can win it. Then the stat based writers will split between Bautista and Ellsbury depending on how they value Defense, and the old school guys will split between Granderson and Gonzales.
I saw an interesting stat that makes me change my mind about Verlander. Of his 34 starts, 24 have come against AL Central or sub-.500 teams. Of the remaining 10, he has 2 losses, and 4 no decisions. Suddenly his magical year loses some luster (the same argument I made against King Felix last year, though Felix did dominate good teams too). I firmly believe you have to factor in the competition when deciding these awards. Ian Kennedy is a Cy Young candidate this year. He wouldn't win 10 in the AL East. Would Verlander? Most likely, since he'd get enough run support and he is truly that good, but he only dominated inferior talent. Ellsbury, Granderson, Cano, Gonzalez, and Bautista dominated everyone, including in their division when the division's pitching was the best in the sport.
