It's not a fucking doctorate thesis. It's a simple fractional gain based on a few statistics. Do you want me to use integrals and 20 year mean rates of change? I did this for fun in a boring lockout-laden offseason. "LOL-bad" would be if we're thinking he'll go off for 5200 yards and 35 TD. We're all being pretty reasonable here. Besides, completion percentage among NFL QB's is mostly between 55-65%. You can't expect massive change there. Sanchez is on the lower end of that and has to improve his accuracy. I'd wager he's somewhere around 60% next season, which is where his postseason numbers are at.
No, it's not a doctorate thesis. It's meaningless drivel with no mathematical rationale whatsoever. It's a piece of shit for idiot Jets fans to jerk off to while ignoring the blatant statistical reality. Sanchez is not on "the low end of average" when it comes to completion percentage. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Sanchez finished 29th out of 31, beating out only Jimmy Clausen and Derek "YOU DON'T KNOW WHERE I'VE BEEN FRANK" fucking Anderson. He trails luminaries like Alex Smith (by 5 points!), Ryan Fitzpatrick (3), and Jason Campbell (4). All this with a quality offensive line, an above-average running game and a very good set of receivers. When it comes to accuracy, Sanchez does not need to improve just a little. He needs a fucking sea change. When it comes to accuracy, Mark Sanchez currently blows. Do, Professor, by the way, explain to us why we ought to trust his ~100 attempt playoff sample over his ~900 attempt regular season sample, preferably with an argument external to your prodigious Kool-Aid intake. Is the argument that the regular season counts less and that Sanchez was somehow less focused? Isn't that a gigantic fucking problem in and of itself? 60%! Sixty fucking percent! Please explain why--other than your being on potent hallucinogenics--there is any reason to believe this is a likely outcome for Sanchez this year. A 5-point gain is enormous and we have next to zero evidence for it being possible, never mind probable. Please, please be an idiot trust fund kid who's willing to lay a wager on that figure. Name a price. Please. In conclusion, your post is full of shit and is a giant fucking waste of this forum's time.
Bare in mind, I actually liked Freeman better than Sanchez before the 09 draft. With Freeman, I saw a big strong immensely talented QB in the mold of Steve Mcnair. Sanchez reminded me of a cross between Joe Montana and Rex Grossman. Montana for his pocket awareness,footwork and demeanor while Grossman for his quick release and inconsistency w/ accuracy and decision making. So far that looks spot on. With that said, I see 2 QB's built for entirely different roles for their teams. Freeman is built for a pass first warm weather offense with plenty of 5 and 7 step drops that allow him to stand tall in the pocket, scan the field and make intermediate throws. He doesn't have the challenge of playing QB in New york, answer to his outspoken head coach's antics or be a leader among many well accomplished and talented league veterans. Sanchez is built for a balanced offense w/ an emphasized running game,alot of different formations and many different pass drops/roll outs. He isn't gonna stand tall in the pocket and take 30 7 step drops a game like Freeman. However, he will create just as many big plays w/ his mobility in the pocket and his quick release. Sanchez also is more media friendly which you need in the New York market. Freeman's playing style, level of competition, and the fact that he plays in a division with primarily domed/warm weather teams lend to higher stats than Sanchez. Sanchez was never going to put up Tom Brady/Peyton Manning type numbers. What you hope is that he has Terry Bradshawn and Phil Simms type success as a winning QB asked to be the face of a franchise. He has displayed the talent and moxy to do just that.
ignoring the fact you were a collosal asshole in this post... I will answer the bolded question. its year 3. This is the year players step up and start to become the best player they are going to be. Year 3 is almost universally the year in which the players who are going to put it all together, put it together. we have done this an insane amount of times, so i won't drag out the numbers, but pick pretty much any QB you want to pick in the annals of all time that is deemed to have been a franchise QB. Its incredibly rare to see comp % above 60 before year 3. Its also almost universal in which their rookie season was about 54% and their sophmore year was a decrease to around 53%. Then the completion percentage jumps up to around 62%. This includes not only all time greats like John Elway, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Steve Young and a million other guys, but includes some average joes like Trent Dilfer. So yeah, there is history to look back on and think its a good possibility he reaches 60% in year 3. Will he? I have no fucking clue. But there is absolutely a chance he does it. In fact if he is going to be as good as some of us believe (and definately every jets fan is hoping) he will hit 60% completion % this year.
Double check those numbers chief. Peyton completion percentages: 57% (year 1), 62% (year 2), 63% (year 3) Brady: 33% in 3 passes (year 1), 64% (year 2), 62% (year 3) Elway didn't hit 60% until his 11th year. Young was in the USFL. Montana: 57% (in limited action in year 1), 65% (year 2), 64% (year 3) Marino: 58, 64, 59 Matt Ryan: 61, 58, 62 Brees: 55 (limited action), 61, 58
I think the issue is more his overall QB rating. With more or less the best situation he could be in (excellent offensive line, running game, wide receivers), he's put up pretty mediocre numbers. We're good enough to win the Super Bowl with Mark as the QB, and he could still improve, but so far he hasn't shown a whole lot to make us think QB play will be a strength for our 19-0 campaign next year.
Decided to check how the numbers are looking so far going into the Bye Week (thru 7 games) - Yards: 1545 - Touchdowns: 12 (+2 rushing) - Interceptions: 6 - Passer Rating: 83 Pro-Rated for full season - Yards: 3532 - Touchdowns: 27 (+5 rushing) - Interceptions: 13 - Passer Rating: ~85 So far so good I think. His yardage needs to improve a bit and I expect his INTs to trend downward a little bit with the schedule weakening up a bit in the latter half.
You wonder if he had Braylon and Crotch for a 3rd year what his passing numbers would be. Remember, the lockout prevented work, too.
Also, just out of curiosity, I removed the Ravens debacle of a game and projected it for 16 games: Yards: 1436 TD: 12 (+2 rush) INT: 5 RTG: 92.8 Completion %: 60.55 Thru 16 games Yards: 3829 TD: 32 TD (+5 rush) INT: 13 RTG: 94 Completion %: 61 I'd sign up for those numbers in a heartbeat
Sanchez is ahead of the game right now. He's gone from surviving in 2009 to passable but nothing special in 2010 to putting up good numbers this year. That said, the system is going to decided what his numbers ultimately look like. My guess is that Sanchez will wind up with better numbers in his peak seasons than Joe Flacco and with a similar win percentage and Super Bowl appearances. Flacco is going to have better support over the years because Ozzie Newsome is one of the best GM's in terms of providing consistent talent. What the Jets strain to do each year through free agency the Ravens accomplish naturally by respecting the draft and milking it for all it's worth.
If he has 32 Tds that would be amazing. Even 27/13 would be pretty awesome for him. I don't expect his yardage to go up with the recent emphasis on the run.
Majority of these haterz are clowns that predicted Sanchez would be a bust so they don't want to admit they are wrong. Even though it's clearly obvious that they are. There is this radio host who hates Sanchez and thought he'd be a huge bust who was reading his stats from Sunday and he would skip over how many TDs he threw and only mentioned the one INT. Like I said, these haterz are clowns who are jealous of Sanchez because they are complete failures in their own lives.
Well, let's take out the worse game for every QB in the league and project their ratings over 16 games. How much better would Brady look without those 4 INTs in Buffalo? How about Luke McCown without his stinker against the Jets that got him benched? The fact is that Sanchez's completion % is less than 56% -- and that's NOT because he's throwing the long ball a lot. Pretending the Ravens game didn't happen doesn't change reality.
