I have no inside information nor is this my personal opinion of what I feel is best for this franchise. Tannenbaum isn't the best at assessing draft day value or accruing a lucrative number of picks. What he is very good at is recognizing the jets long term needs, identifying players who are evaluated as a "plus players" by both the coaching staff and scouting department, and moving forward accordingly. He'll take a best player available approach if he feels the players he likes/needs will be there at the teams draft slot. However, if the board suggests that a player at a position of need will not be there, or the possibility of having to reach is in effect...he's likely gonna move up. As it stands, the teams most glaring need is a pass rusher, and it in essence is the one tangible thing that appears to be holding this team back from a super bowl. The way the board is shaping up, the only pass rushers who will be available at #30 are big time gambles w/ major question-marks. Although some other needs including DL and OL may have some value at that spot,those players too have questionmarks.Additionally Rex appears to be an advocate of taking DL players late, as his scheme does not require top end athleticism or playmaking ability up front. I think this all points to a classic Tannenbaum trade up for whatever pass rusher the team feels good about. Smith,Kerrigan, Quinn, etc. I do not think Tannenbaum will sit back and watch all those pass rushers get selected, leaving the jets w/ a very tough decision at #30. Let me again reitterate that this is not necesarily what i would do if I were the Jets Gm...instead this is what I believe Tannenbaum will do based on his history here, and the way the board appears to be stacking. Thoughts?
Here's the issue trading up this year.....not enough ammo. The Jet's don't have a 2nd round pick and to move up in Rd 1 you have to mortgage 2012's 1st round pick, something I really believe Tanny won 't do. Without Free agency, right now, trading up for the Jets isn't smart. The Jets need to sit back and let the players fall to them, they will when a couple of teams move up to draft Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder before #30
In year's past I don't think Tanny uses any 2012 picks. But I would not be surprised to see him do it this time around. pass rush has been this team's achilles heel since Abraham left and w/ a maturing roster coming off 2 straight conference championships, the window of success is imminent. Pass rush is really the only need this team has that can't be reasonably addressed in free agency once a CBA is reached. If Tannenbaum agrees w/ this sentiment and truly believes we are an edge rusher away from this team being pushed over the top, I think he pulls the trigger.
to get Smith/Quinn we would have to get up to at least 10 in front of Houston, i really think Quinn goes even earlier than that... Kerrigan I don't see as a 3-4 OLB, but more as a 4-3 DE. We would have to get in front of jax at 16 IMO, which means trading up to 14, because we won't deal with the phins... We have no ammunition to get up that high without the ability to trade a player, which due to the lockout we can not do. Also any of the players we might want to trade, that have actual value (Harris, Cromartie, Holmes, Edwards) All just so happen to be unsigned... So even if the CBA gets organized prior to the draft, we can't trade what we don't have under contract... The highest we could reasonably get to is about 25, unless we go full ditka and trade the entire draft, which might get us to 20... Trading up is going to be nearly impossible this year, without dipping into to next years picks, which Tanny has stated he really doesn't like doing. So my opinion is that you are right, we aren't going to see value there at 30, so Tanny will do his best to trade down because the value just isn't there for us.
Obviously the past has told us that there is a good chance we do, but the price to move from 30 to the low to mid teens is just too high. It will likely cost us this years first, next years first, and this years third. I don't see us doing all that for anyone. I think if someone fell into the late teen, early 20 range, and we could trade this years first and next years first for say pick #20, and a third rounder, we may consider it.
I agree with WW85, because there was no free agency period and our lack of draft ammo...I don't foresee a trade-up scenario happening. I believe the Jets will stay put at 30...and will field offers for a trade back from the QB needy teams.
The Jets don't have that edge rusher, but still managed to be #8 in total sacks in 2010. I agree an edge rusher needs to be added, but not at the point to mortagage our 2012 draft. Who is the this savior to move up for to be our 3-4 OLB?? Kerrigan while a great motor and pass rusher is best suited as 4-3 DE. Kerigan could move to 3-4 OLB, but not his best postion. If the Jets are going to move up in Rd 1, it's for a player like JJ Watt or Cameron Jordan. Let's move up into late Rd 2 for a player like Sam Acho, would could be as good as any 3-4 DE/OLB availble in Rd 1 with his pass rush ability.
I am sure he would love to move up but his ability to do so is practically nil. Unless Mangini gets a job between now and the draft with the Jags I dont see this happening.
let's bare in mind that although the primary base defense is a 3-4, Rex does employ alot of 4-3 looks, especially on 3rd down.Also, both Pace and BT are capable of dropping back into coverage if need be..so we're basically talking about another rotational edge player who's primary role will be attacking the line of scrimmage. Hence, I don't think the team should limit the possibilities at the position based solely on thier fit in the 3-4. Above all else, I think the Jets need an athlete on the edge who can get into the backfield and disrupt. The team has plenty of other "do it all" types who can cover, fill running lanes and set the edge. The player I really like is Aldon Smith. He seems to be in that same Adalius Thomas/Terrell Suggs mold that Rex loves. He's extremely athletic on the edge, has a nose for the football and is said to be very coachable. He has some things in his game he needs to work on to become a complete player..but again, we have veterans in place who can tie up the loose ends while he develops.The jets could essentially bring him in, line him up in the 4-3 or standing up in passing situations, and suddenly we have some much needed speed and athleticism coming off the edge. As of right now, his selection range will be between picks 10-20...if he starts to slip and gets to around 17 or 18...perhaps Tanny gets creative and finds a way to get it done.
if we were to trade up to at least 19 or 21 it would have to be for this years first and next years along with an extra pick or a player like Bryan Thomas, it would just have to be the premium we'd have to take on even though the value is swayed more to the other team. So that would equate to the real question being would you rather have a draft like this: 2011: Aldon Smith/JJ Watt at 19-21 and in 2012 a second round DE like Derek Wolfe out of Cincinnati or OLB like Johnathan Rainley out of New Mexico. Or 2011: Ayers/Heyward at 30 and in 2012 Donte Paige-Moss at OLB or Jared Crick at DE
Kurt, You make good points and it does seem to be Tanny's predilection. That said with no CBA in place, FA not happening yet, and the Jets unable to sign UDFAs, I think this year may cause him to have to change his approach to the draft. The Jets have a number of big question marks regarding their roster. With Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Brad Smith FAs and Jerricho Cotchery recovering from surgery, they may need at least one WR, if not 2 and a KR. With Damien Woody gone, Hunter a FA, and Ducasse a question mark, they may need a RT. With Brandon Moore having hip surgery and not being available until August, and with Robert Turner being questionable depth and a RFA who may want too much money and has a dick for an agent, they may want/need insurance at RG. Cromartie may not be back, so they may need another CB, and with Wilson being questionable as far as seeing significant playing time and/or starting, they may need 2. At S, Jimmy Leonard is coming off a major injury and the other 3 top Safeties are all FAs. At DE Shaun Ellis and Trevor Pryce are FAs and Ropati Pitoitua is coming off a major injury (Achilles) at a position where the Achilles will take a lot of stress. It usually takes players a while to recover from that injury if ever, so even though they have a number of young possible replacements, the case could be made that they need at least one if not 2 DEs. Finally, there's the NT spot. Pouha is the only proven NT on the roster. Tevaseau is still a big question mark. None of the other DL the Jets have on the roster are suitable NT prospects. Unless Kris Jenkins is definitely coming back (and even if he is, he's hardly reliable), the Jets desperately need to add an NT prospect. Thus, I think the case may be made to Tanny that the Jets need MORE picks, not less, and he has to trade down, possibly multiple times to try to address as many of those needs/question marks as possible. While I think the Jets know or have a very good idea of which of their FAs will return, there are often surprises. Some team steps in and offers a huge contract to a player that the Jets thought was coming back. I think this is the perfect draft for Tanny to learn and grow as a GM...to learn to find value in each round and identify multiple prospects at each position who could help the Jets. They absolutely cannot afford to trade up again this year, and next year's picks should be off-limits as they don't know what will happen in FA or who might get injured at some point and they need to trade for a replacement. With the strong need for pass rush and depth at NT, I could see the Jets trading down into the 2nd and taking Kenric Ellis. He could get great pocket push up the middle on passing downs thus helping improve the pass rush, and be effective vs the run too. With the additional pick or picks they get from moving down, they could address another question mark(s).
Johnny, Again, the Jets cannot trade Thomas or any player until the new CBA is signed. Also, trading a starter for a prospect wouldn't be the best or brightest way to go.
Kurt I'm on your side with this, but I don't think they trade up far enough to mortgage future picks. I've been feeling the trade up as well, and that we might see another 3-4 player draft once more. 09's draft was a pure 100% home run so far, and they'll need to do the same if they want to go this route one more time. This draft is really tricky this year. They need someone to fall to them. The top 3-4 talent is going to be picked right in front of the Jets for 3 hours. Its going to be a little painful.
Trust me I would LOVE it if we traded up, because we need a pass rusher most importantly and since it doesnt look as if one is going to fall to us I wouldn't rule it out of the question. That said I have two different feelings on this matter. One, I don't see how we have enough ammunition to make this trade as far as draft picks go. However, the counter argument is that the some of the best Jet drafts have been when we have traded up and even with limited picks Tanny has not been afraid of trading up. At the moment I am a little more inclined to go towards my first thought because we are somewhat depleted as far as picks go, but I don't think Free Agency has much of an impact on Tanny's thinking. That said I still hold fast to my overall Jets draft policy which is: Tanny is awesome at drafting guys so in the end any decision he makes will most likely be beneficial in the end
I agree and further, I would say further that all signs point to Aldon Smith, based on a few key points. 1- we need a pass rusher. 2-our second biggest need is DE/DT, but we've got a few young players in the pipeline (Pito, Dixon, Gilbert, Kroul, MTV) plus solid vets who could probably be resigned for cheap(ish) 3-Rex loves to mix and match personnel and alignment along the DL, but certainly could use a difference maker somewhere along the line or at OLB. If you accept these three premises then you should probably realize that someone who could give us a pass rush, could play anywhere along the DL AND at OLB would solve a whole bunch of problems. And that person is none ofther than my favorite player in this draft: Aldon Smith. It's why I've been thinking we'd trade up for him for a long time. The only real flaw in this idea is: Tanny doesn't like to trade future picks. BUT, as far as I can tell, there's no reason you couldn't structure a deal as follows: this year's first and next year's first OR future considerations mutually agreed upon. So, as soon as the lockout ends, your trading partner says, you know what, I'd rather have Calvin PAce than your first next year. And you say, oh gee, really, ok then, fine, wink wink.
I agree with WW. It is much more likely we trade up from our 3rd round pick to bottom of the 2nd or early 3rd. I could see us targeting Acho, but I could also see targeting Jaquain Jarret. I think we stay put in the 1st round, but Mr. T will be working the phones, especially with the draft over 3 days.
I'm a big Aldon Smith fan, problem is so are the GMs drafting in the 11 to 18 range. Kurt, I understand your enthusiasm wanting to get an impact player like Smith. Our resources are too thin and we have nothing to give up to to get to the mid round area. Tanny isn't going to give up a 2012 1st Rd pick. I remember hearing Tanny mention the details of the Sanchez trade we "didn't give up a future 1st Rounder".
I also love Smith. just hope he doesn't go to a divisional team. I've heard lots of talk that Miami is in no mans land at 15. To me, it would make a ton of sense to look Smith's way if available. Pair him with Wake. If you don't have a QB, at least terrorize opposing QB's. NE also has the need, and the ammo to jump up ahead of Miami if needed. i think NE's biggest need, like ours, is getting a pass rusher.
