BGA: Jets at Bears

NDmick · Dec 30, 2010

http://www.thejetsblog.com/2010/12/29/bga-jets-at-bears/

BGA: Jets at Bears

By Bent on Dec 29, 2010, 9:28 pm

Disclaimer: All analysis was taken from the TV coverage, so at times it may have been hard to identify players or what was happening, because I was limited by their footage. However, I have tried to be as accurate as possible and apologize for any inaccuracies or omissions (which I am happy to correct).

Here comes this week’s in-depth analysis of the loss to Chicago. If you have anything else you’d like me to comment upon, please leave your requests in the comments and I’ll do a follow-up post tomorrow.

After the jump, catch my analysis of Sunday’s game, including – but not limited to – comments on David Harris, Jason Taylor and Shonn Greene.

Strategy

This week, I will mostly be talking about the defensive strategy, but – courtesy of Jason from nyjetscap.com – I do have some numbers for you in respect of the offense, which did look pretty good this week.

They again had more or less a 50/50 split on 1st down. It was 51.5% run and 48.5% pass. Sanchez was on fire going 13 of 15 for 170 yards on 1st down. The run game was effective too, going for 4 YPC. They converted 33% of their 1st down plays into another 1st down and were around 73% for the day, both much higher than usual for them. The team went run heavy in the 2nd and less than six category, running on all six situations, four of which resulted in 1st down … Where things went a little downhill for the team was the 3rd and longs later in the game. Sanchez began the day three of his first four, but ended it one of his last five.

As for the defense, they had some serious breakdowns against the run, got beaten downfield in man-to-man coverage, failed to get much pressure without blitzing and had a few match-ups exploited.

The Jets defensive problems are two-fold and both down to personnel. They’ve lost their three best (only?) interior pass rushers (Jenkins, Pitoitua and Pryce) and none of their edge rushers can win a one-on-one matchup with any kind of consistency. Pace possibly due to injury, Taylor due to age. However, their secondary depth is compromised too. Leonhard and Smith may not have played well, but their absence forces Pool (who missed the start of the season and has been playing catchup ever since), Lowery (who is learning a new position on the fly) and Coleman (who has always been better in small doses) into key roles.

The Jets might be equipped to overcome one of these issues, but not both. With a pass rush, it would be harder to expose the likes of Lowery and Coleman. However, the Jets need to drop extra guys into coverage to protect them, so they have to choose between blitzing to hopefully generate pressure or dropping guys into coverage, knowing that the quarterback will have all day to throw.

So, what can you do? Pick your poison. There is no easy answer. They could go blitz-happy, but the more you blitz, the easier it will presumably become for the line to pick it up. Although Revis and Cromartie can handle one-on-one assignments, the rest of the secondary will be exposed, especially now they don’t have a safety with the range of a Kerry Rhodes. Giving up on the blitz won’t help either, as it doesn’t matter how many guys you drop into coverage, an elite QB will find someone eventually. The Jets simply have to try and disguise their blitz packages and coverage schemes and mix up what they do to keep the offense guessing.

Which brings us to Jason Taylor getting burned by Forte. The Jets don’t want to rush five, but if they send four linemen, the Bears are picking it up every time. So, they line up with a four man front, send two linebackers on a blitz (Harris and Scott), drop Pouha into underneath coverage and send Taylor out to the flat. Cutler is under pressure, but throws the ball off a three step drop and Forte runs under it for a catch down the sideline. Taylor was a half step slow getting to Forte in the flat and jamming him at the line. Dwight Lowery was a step slow in reading the route and getting over to prevent the completion. There you have the Jets’ defensive frailties in a nutshell – and it still took a perfect call and execution to squeeze the play in.

Right now, the Jets are forced to try things like that in order to get stops. It often works, but over the last few weeks, there have been some breakdowns. They can only hope that the return of Trevor Pryce will improve the pass rush, so they don’t need to send extra guys too often and that the return of Eric Smith will mean the secondary copes better when they do blitz. (I know Smith has historically struggled, but whenever he starts, he has performed at least as well as Leonhard in coverage).

Whatever happens, they cannot afford the kind of breakdown that gifted the Bears their second TD of the third quarter. There were only ten men on the field! AGAIN! They rushed four and dropped six – one extra pass rusher or a deep safety probably would have made all the difference. For the record, DeVito, Pouha, Scott and Thomas left the game and Taylor, Pace and Wilson entered. It was third and three, so I expect Ihedigbo should also have entered, but he had been injured moments earier. The other possibility was that maybe Marquice Cole should have entered as a deep safety. The most disconcerting part is that nobody on the field or sideline seemed to notice they were a man short as the play got underway.
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NDmick · Dec 30, 2010

Continued..

Quarterback

Mark Sanchez has certainly stepped up his game since the threat of being benched a few weeks ago. The Jets continue to run plays within his comfort zone and it has both phases of the offense working well. On Sunday, they mainly attacked the Bears over the middle (207 of 269 yards), borrowing the Pats gameplan from two weeks ago. Sanchez was 0-for-4 with an interception throwing to his left, but 7-for-8 for 62 yards and a TD throwing right.

He wasn’t under pressure often, but when he was, he went 1-for-4 for seven yards. However, when the Bears blitzed (which happened just five times), he was 4-for-5 for 47 yards.

Before his last throw, he had a QB rating of 98.0, but the interception dropped it to 84.2. Either way, it was his best rating for over a month. On that interception, it looked like his first option was a dump-off underneath to LaDainian Tomlinson, but the Bears dropped DT Henry Melton into coverage, so that wasn’t there. Unfortunately, his pump fake did not freeze Chris Harris. It looked like a strong throw, though, for anyone still worried about that shoulder.

Offensive Line

What an impressive performance it was by Wayne Hunter. He only gave up one pressure, despite the Jets reverting to their usual gameplan of not leaving blockers in very often. Yes, conditions may have been a factor and yes, the Jets were doing plenty of quick passing, but that’s still a solid display against two great pass rushers in Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije, each of whom had plenty of one-on-one pass rush attempts against Hunter. D’Brickashaw Ferguson (one hit, one pressure) deserves credit too. Overall the line gave up three hits and two pressures, with Matt Slauson conceding two hits and Brandon Moore and Nick Mangold again flawless in pass protection.

Ferguson, Moore and Mangold were also solid in the running game again, but Slauson and Hunter graded out negatively. When Woody returns, the Jets can expect to see an improvement on the right side (they gained just 11 yards on five carries over that side). For Slauson, who also had a hold as the first play of the game was stuffed in the backfield, his play has not been as good since he hurt his knee against Cleveland. Prior to that, he really seemed to be establishing himself, but since then his lateral mobility appears compromised. He made some good blocks going forwards, but there were too many occasions where his man got the step on him. Could he benefit from a rest this week?

Running Backs

Until the last drive of the game, Shonn Greene had seen more action than Tomlinson, but they ended up tied with 35 snaps each. Tony Richardson actually had 37 in a busy day, which saw him convert two first downs, catch a pass and block reasonably effectively. It will be interesting to see what they do with the fullbacks against the Bills, because that was one game where they were both extremely effective.

While it was good to see them both score, it was clear that Tomlinson struggled running the ball and Greene (3.6 yards per carry after contact) was solid, but they still ended up with Greene having one fewer carry. I still think they ought to give Greene the bulk of the carries in the playoffs. I also wonder whether the increased playing time for Greene was planned in advance, a reward for his performance on the day or simply a by-product of Tomlinson sitting for the remainder of the first quarter after his fumble (other than one play).

I think they are preparing Greene for a bigger role. He was the feature back for the two minute drill at the end of the first half this week – a dramatic departure. Also, last week, he stayed in to block a season high five times and this week he matched that. Is he ready though? He got blown up for a QB hit last week and was a step slow to react to an outside blitz allowing a pressure this week.

Tight Ends and Receivers

Just two drops this week and yet they still lost, but we can at least say that the offense performed well without too many drops. The drops themselves were costly, with Dustin Keller dropping one in the endzone and costing the Jets four points – the eventual difference in the game – and Cotchery dropping a big one on third down in the fourth.

Other than that drop, Keller was a perfect 7-for-7 for 79 yards. They got him going early and then got him running clearout routes which opened up the quick slants for everybody else. This is another one to watch – remember, he was inconsistent last year and then had a monster postseason as the Jets ran the ball and went with short passing. Is he going to continue to be a factor now? I’m not sure what we’ll learn from the Buffalo game, but they’ve struggled against TEs. In the first meeting, they paid extra attention to Keller and held him to four catches and 28 yards…but two TDs. Minor nit: Who else had Chrebet flashbacks when he jumped over the top like that?

Until late in the game, Ben Hartsock had actually played MORE than Keller, another big change. He ended up playing a season high 37 snaps and turned in easily his most effective game of the year as a run blocker.

How about that Braylon Edwards: Possession Receiver? Since Santonio Holmes joined the team in week five, Edwards was maninly a downfield threat, catching fewer than 50% of his passes in those first nine games and averaging at least 14 yards per catch in all but two. In the last two, he’s down to 12.7 yards per catch, but he’s caught 14-of-19. A monster game on Sunday (148 yards) would unexpectedly give him a 1,000 yard season, although for financial reasons, perhaps they’re better off if that doesn’t happen!

Holmes grabbed just four of eight, but for 13, 16, 18 and 23 yards (including a TD). Jerricho Cotchery had just two catches and a drop. He continues to disappoint. Brad Smith also had a drop, but it isn’t included in the two above because it was a special teams play. Also, I told you he doesn’t have much of an arm – that was brutal. Two great runs from the Wildcat though, from the non-Pro Bowler.

Defensive Line

The main complaint this week was the lack of pressure, whether or not that is a by-product of personnel deficiencies in the secondary, on the line, or both. Ultimately, the Jets did have two sacks, five hits and seven pressures, which is not too bad considering they only blitzed twelve times. However, only two hits and four pressures were not due to coverage or Cutler holding the ball for too long. The Jets did send 4.3 rushers per dropback, which is higher than the last few weeks.

The run defense didn’t grade out too badly across the board, probably because if you remove Forte’s three longest runs from the equation, the Bears were 28-for-53 rushing, so there were lots of positive plays being made. Ellis and DeVito actually graded out positively against the run, with Ellis also adding two hits and a pressure in a strong all-round display.

Sione Pouha was largely ineffective, with just one tackle and the two backups, Marcus Dixon (eight snaps) and Vernon Gholston (ten) both made a play each, but didn’t do much else. Dixon had a sack, although it was a coverage sack and took him nine seconds to get to the quarterback and Gholston took on a double team and stuffed a run in the backfield.

Linebackers

David Harris graded out particularly well this week. It was actually his best overall rating of the year. He led the team in tackles (albeit with only four and in a four-way tie), had two QB hits in eight pass rush attempts and saw two of the three passes thrown his way fall incomplete. However, there were a couple of occasions where I thought he made a bad read. One was on the dump off pass to Forte where Pool made a touchdown saving tackle. Harris tried to beat Forte, who had initially stayed in to block, to the outside and took an impossibly wide angle which meant he was never going to disrupt Cutler from dumping it to Forte with an open field ahead of him. The other was on Forte’s 22 yard TD run in the first quarter. Harris seemed to make a last second adjustment that meant both he and Bart Scott were a step too far over to the right. The run came towards Gholston, who stood his man up and got some penetration to force the running lane inside. Greg Olsen then pulled around from the fullback position into the hole, where Brodney Pool, who was in the box, had stepped up to try and plug that gap. Forte then cut back up the middle, where both Harris and Scott were both a half step away from having an angle on him. Harris made a despairing dive, but barely got a finger on him. Even when Harris is great, he still isn’t perfect.

He was much better overall than the other linebackers, though. Bryan Thomas (one sack, two pressures) produced as a pass rusher, but was poor against the run, losing outside contain on a big gainer in the fourth quarter. Jason Taylor had one pressure and two missed tackles to go along with being beaten for that big play by Forte. Calvin Pace didn’t have a single pressure, but did make a nice play to pursue across the field and blow up a run. Bart Scott didn’t make any mistakes, but it was basically his quietest game of the year.

Josh Mauga continues to be on the goalline unit, so he saw one play again. Oh, and for the person who was asking about Jamaal Westerman, he’s only played twice on defense all season, three snaps against the Pats in week two and six snaps the following week in Miami. He has recorded no stats, but last year in 91 snaps (63 as a pass rusher), he had one sack, one hit and five pressures, plus two tackles.
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NDmick · Dec 30, 2010

Defensive Backs

This was an interesting battle of wits between Rex Ryan and Mike Martz. All season long, the weak point of the Jets secondary had been over the middle. This week, the Bears started off by trying to go over the middle and had no success. So, they adjusted and started attacking the outside. This was succesful, but then the Jets adjusted again and the Bears had no completions in the fourth quarter. Hopefully, they can carry that into the postseason. In the end, the Jets gave up just 42 yards over the middle and held Chicago’s three tight ends to just five yards on one catch. Bart Scott and David Harris should get some of the credit, but this was really a sign of improved safety play.

Brodney Pool gave up just one catch for four yards on five passes thrown his way (with two break-ups) and also had the saving tackle on Forte. Dwight Lowery slipped as he was beaten for a score by Johnny Knox (on a play where perhaps Pool could have got over quicker) but on the other hand, he did have a pick-six. Both graded out well.

The cornerbacks had a mixed outing. Antonio Cromartie was beaten for a score, but on the other six balls thrown his way he gave up just two catches for 22 yards. Drew Coleman was also badly beaten for a score on a back shoulder throw, but that play might have been easier to defend with an eleventh defender and it was the only time he was thrown at. Darrelle Revis was beaten for one catch, but only because he slipped. He broke up the only other pass thrown his way in another solid coverage display.

Kyle Wilson was in for two snaps and Marquice Cole and James Ihedigbo six each. Cole made the most of his chances, with a QB hit, two pressures and a tackle.

Special Teams

This week, there was some good directional punting again from Steve Weatherford and – don’t look now, but – Nick Folk’s made seven field goals in a row and is up to a respectable 76.3% on the year. Both, however, made the mistake of kicking to Devin Hester, although the tackling of Ihedigbo, Brad Smith and Tanner Purdum didn’t help. That wasn’t the biggest mistake on special teams, though. The fake punt was a disaster – although it did catch Hester out. When the Jets were 4-for-4 on fake punts last year, everybody loved it. Not so much fun when you screw up, is it? The Jets still might have won if not for two mini-disasters on the punt return unit at the end of the game. Kyle Wilson has to do a better job of slowing down gunners, seeing him chasing guys from behind is disconcerting. The bounce off Cole was just bad luck, really.

PFF Analysis

This week, I again contributed to the game recap article for ProFootballFocus.com (which also gives you a sneak preview of some of their player ratings). It hasn’t been posted yet, but look out for it tomorrow. Here’s a sample quote:

When two of the top five defenses in the league meet in freezing cold conditions with periodic snow flurries, you know what to expect. Especially when the road team has scored one offensive touchdown in the last three weeks. 72-point shootout, anyone? … When the Jets were forced to settle for a field goal to reduce Chicago’s lead to 38-34 on the second play of the fourth quarter, both defenses finally knuckled down and nobody else was able to score, as the Bears held on, despite giving up almost 400 yards of total offense.

TJB readers can obtain full access to PFF’s premium stats for $63 this season. The discount available has been increased to 30%. E-mail me ( bentdouble@gmail.com ) to obtain a code to enable you to get the discount.

Conclusions

What can we learn from this game? First, the missing personnel is starting to take its toll. Next, there is only so much Rex Ryan can fix. Finally, the offense seems to be rounding into form. The Jets have the luxury of a practically-meaningless week to get healthy, but more importantly to get prepared. Here’s where they really stepped things up last year. Time to repeat the trick…
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Read it all. Its beyond insightful.

ukjetsfan · Dec 30, 2010

Great stuff, thanks for posting.

Just two snaps for Kyle Wilson. He really is struggling.

onefanjet · Dec 30, 2010

Excellent read, accurate perspective, backed up by numbers, or vice virsa...

WhiteShoeWillis · Dec 30, 2010

Nice writeup NDMick.

fcpiii · Dec 30, 2010

The whole Kyle Wilson thing frightens me. Even in returning punts, I just don't understand how there can be such a drop off from what he did last year to this. I understand this is a different level but he has issues just fielding a punt, makes me think of Justin Miller although I think KW will be a lot better in the long run.

Great analysis, but never could believe that we could be desperate to get Eric Smith back. Hopefully he and Pryce come back and can provide a spark next weekend, we need a spark!!

Footballgod214 · Dec 30, 2010

love these.....

NDmick · Dec 30, 2010

WhiteShoeWillis said: ↑

Nice writeup NDMick.
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Thanks I figured I'd give you a break. :lol:

TommyJ · Dec 30, 2010

that's a solid read, awesome job.

MadBacker Prime · Dec 30, 2010

"Cole made the most of his chances, with a QB hit, two pressures and a tackle."

Give him more snaps-

Hobbes3259 · Dec 30, 2010

Lost in all of this, and I don't want to sound like the phins after a loss.

We left 11 points on the field in a 4 pt game.

The drop in the EZ which has now cost us two games by two different receivers.
And the Holmes fumble which Chi converted into 7.

It sucked to lose that game....but it took MISTAKES to give it away.

If we hold on to balls, and don't blow coverages.....we're still as good or better than any team out there, not playing in NE.

And We can hang with them. That was a game at 24-3. That MISTAKE lead to the blowout.

EdBell · Dec 30, 2010

Great read. Well done and very insightful.

BGA: Jets at Bears

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