Two weeks running we've had two tough road games; been the underdog on both occasions and no one would have been surprised had we lost both games. The reality is we've gone 1 for 2 and made the play offs. In short, we've done better than the odds suggested and achieved a play off berth, which was the best realistic outcome once we'd lost the Miami game. Much has been made of the failed 4th down yesterday that gave Chicago all the momentum yet it was a risky 4th down last week that gave the Jets the springboard for their unlikely win in Pittsburgh when Sanchez brilliantly faked a hand off and strolled into the end zone. To me, Rex has looked towards the man who's gone for more 4th downs than any other in the last decade (some seasons he goes for double the amount of the coach in 2nd place.) I'm talking about Belichick, the only coach historically (it seems) that sees that going for it on 4th down consistently will leave you with a 'net gain' in both points and wins in the long runs. I don't have the stats to hand but it was something I read in a Gregg Easterbrook column a few years back and I've kept a general eye on since I read it. Classic example was the Pats game on Thursday night in Foxboro in 2008. Twice NE had the chance to take the FG towards the end of the 1st half. Twice Belichick went for it on 4th down. First to time it failed and 2nd time resulted in a TD. 6 points turned down but 7 points scored instead = net profit of 1 point. In a game that eventually went to overtime that point could have made all the difference. As it turned out, we still won the game but the 4th down point remains. The NFL is a copycat league and there is a lot of stock placed in sticking to the tried and tested. Still amazes me that kickers toe-punted the ball for PATs and FGs until the 70s, when a simple sideways look at either rugby or soccer would have shown how to kick a ball further and more accurately. What I like about Ryan is that he's played the odds on two key 4th downs and hit 50%. That'll do for me. We have won 1 of the last 2 (thanks massively to the 4th down that did work) and ten days ago I dare say every one of us on here would have taken that in a heartbeat.
It's one thing to do it at the goal line. It's another to do it in your own territory up by 7. I think teams should ALWAYS do it at the goal line because even if you miss, you have them pinned up against their own end zone whereas if you kick a field goal, yeah you get three points but you have to kickoff and the field position after a kick off is never terrible.
The point you make is valid, for sure. However, the problem with yesterday's example is that it happened at such a terrible spot on the field. Part of the decision has to include where the ball is if the play isn't executed, or is broken up. If that play was deep in their territory, it would have made much more sense.
If Rex really played the percentages, we would kick fewer field goals and go for it on 4th down more.
Problem is... 1) as others said, you don't go for it at your own 40 2) He doesn't know the percentages, like I said last week, it seems like he just wings it
I agreed with you about last week, but I am pretty confident this was a calculated move to keep the ball out of Hesters hands. Fake punts don't surprise anyone when you do them on the other side of the 50. They probably worked on this all week.
If Brad Smith makes a simple catch this discussion isn't taking place. It was a good throw and any decent WR should have had that.
percentages my a$$. rex has too many brain farts and that fake punt yesterday was another example. the jets were playing well in a hostile environment and should have played the percentages kicking the ball out of bounds and playing what is supposed to be their niche, defense! to top it off, to then rely on a guy with suspect hands on such a critical play and we saw the end results. rex is a great defensive coordinator but has way too many brain farts to be a head coach. his second season as head coach and his game management is worse his second season than the first! herm edwards redux!
Its true. The damn ball was in his hands and he would have had a half of a football over the 1st down marker. Its amazing when these receivers want to drop passes. End zone, crucial downs and situations. They won't make plays for their QB, and its infuriating.
Brad Smith has suspect hands???!?!?!?!?!?!?! Then do two things: Get him off the KR unit. Have the police bring these hands in for questioning. I think you have Belichick's wee wee so far inside you it has scrambled your brain.
Brad Smith has always been a mediocre receiver, so going to him in that situation is never going to be a high percentage play.
Rex is not playing percentages or shit - he is flying by the seat of his pants most of the time, he punts from 4 down territory (opponents 33-40 yard line) more than any coach I can remember, usually aided by a shitty third down play call. Sorry but anyway you slice it the fake punt decision and play call were boneheaded. Up 7 against a good team in your own territory. You did not fool anyone by having Sanchez in there but then lining up in punt formation. So if you did not fool them - what is the point of not lining up in a traditional set. Even though the throw was on target - Sanchez appeared uncomfortably hurried by receiving the ball in an unfamilar postion. You also took away your chance of trying the play later in the game - when twice you were losing in the fourth quarter and you were in Bears territory and decided to ount it away.
It fooled them enough to have there punt return team on the field which is all we really needed. The pass was in the receivers hand for the first down, he didn't catch it.
Sorry but it did not fool them, watch the play the coverage was there. You really could not have had much better coverage on that play from any defense. So I repeat, it did not FOOL the Bears. The execution from the throw to catch had to be perfect, a way too high of a risk for situation - by putting it up in the air with a QB that has had short throw accuracy problems. (not the issue in this case)
They had a fucking scrub WR in coverage. They were absolutely fooled enough to have there punt return team on the field. That's a fact. If you want to argue facts, feel free. Smith has to catch the damn ball when it hits him in the hands for a first down.
NO - the fact is the coverage was there. I could care less WHO was in coverage. If a fucking scrub, as you put it, could have that kind of coverage- then you know the noone was fooled - FACT! Just because Sanchez made a good throw, the one that you had to make given the coverage, does not mean that they were fooled. Good Qb's make throws all the time where the coverage is there and only the receiver can catch it - THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE DB WAS FOOLED BY THE WRs route. Should Smith have caught the ball? - 80% yes - it was not like the Holmes drop in the EZ. Did Sanchez make the throw? Yes Were the Bears fooled by the play? - ABSOLUTELY NOT Those are the facts.
