Very interesting point that I've been wondering myself. It seems that the Jets get killed by penalties on both sides of the ball and it really hasn't gotten any attention thus far. They simply do not look like a disciplined team.
These stats just point out the problem is Sanchez. There is no Qb in football that is put into more favorable passing situations than Sanchez. No team runs the ball more than the Jets. No QB is expected to pass less than Sanchez. And no team has their opponents dare their QB to pass more by stacking the box against the run than the Jets and Sanchez. Not to mention that Sanchez rarely if ever plays from behind. It is hard to imagine a QB in a more favorable situation that Sanchez. Imagine how bad he would be if defenses played him honest and did not stack the box against the run. What stands out here is Sanchez's stats when defenses expect him to pass. They are horrible. The jets do everything they can to protect Sanchez by running the ball and protecting him and protecting the Jets from him. What is even more startling is his sack rate in obvious throwing situations. It really makes running on 2nd/3rd and long seem much nicer considering the possibilities. Hopefully the light will come on for Sanchez next year or in 2012. It is just a shame that the team is otherwise built to win right now.
Clearly Sanchez needs to improve and I think he has improved and will continue to improve. But his receivers have to improve too. Way too many balls are dropped or catchable balls are not caught. Last week it seemed like there were 4-5 passes that should have been caught that were not caught and if they had been caught the entire complexion of the game might have changed favorably. So its not all on Sanchez.
I agree. I can't recall a year where we have had more dropped balls. Tomlinson, Cotchery, Keller and Holmes have been horrid on drops. The only one without the dropsies this year has been Edwards. The last year I recall with so many drops was 2000 with Testaverde where he had a remarkable number of drops that got converted into INTs. Football is a pretty simple game. Dropped balls are almost as bad as turnovers, penalties, poor throws and sacks. Dropped balls end drives and often take points off the board. Even worse dropped balls take away an offenses rhythm and confidence. I am not a Sanchez fan but the problem goes beyond his poor play. Execution is what is killing the Jets. Constant mistakes are ending drives. Whether its a poor throw, drop, penalty or whatever. The Jets have had offensive opportunities in all 4 losses but they have consistently shot themselves in the foot with poor execution. Dropped balls bother me quite a bit. With a young QB everyone else needs to step up and they simply are not.
Sanchez is not the major problem, did you read the article? He is a second year QB and he is being put in shitty situations where a good veteran QB will have trouble. They need to be smart on the play calling, obviously there have been execution problems, but you can let Sanchez slide, veteran receivers dropping passes is inexcusable. The O-line falling apart is devastating and don't forget penalties and the O-line's misfortunes are the real issue here because they are not easily fixable. Play calling on the other hand, well, Shotty needs to get his head out of his fucking ass, simple as that, it all comes down to if he is willing to do it.
How do the jets use brad smith and the seminol? It seems random, but do the jets call that package more-so on down and distance senarios that give sanchez fits? just curious. edit: great analysis whiteshoewillie
Jason is very good, and this a grand big project, but in its grandness, I think these statistics lose meaning. Because the Jets production has been so variable, within games, from game to game, and also trending downward with increasing velocity, plotting averages between the two poles creates a picture in the abstract that doesn't look like the real thing. The real thing communicates one statistically relevant thing right now, and two other things that are trends (one short term, and one long run trend): 1 - is that it is _at present_ abjectly terrible. TREND 1 - It has been getting worse in the medium recent past. TREND 2 - It can been observed from the start of the season - actually: going back to the beginning of last season - that the offense's viability and production are wildly inconsistent, swinging like the moods of someone clinically bipolar. The Jets Offense follows a typical boom-bust cycle -- the main component is the volatility and variability of performance, making the drawing of conclusions from statistically based averages, not-too-viable without factoring in mathematically the above trends.
And the problem was Pennington And the problem was Favre And now looking at it are we sure the problem was Clemens NO - the problem is the offensive scheme and playcalling putting our 2nd year QB in a position to fail. Once again the key is we do not run enough on second down.
You are clearly on drugs. Point of fact. In the last game the Jets passed on the majority of first downs, to no success. So where does that leave the Qb. Now...I'd be happy to discuss any individual play, just name the game, time on clock, down and distance. Schitty almost NEVER calls pass plays that develop immediately, except a WR screen outside the numbers. He never spreads the field wide. I rewatch every game, in slo mo to observe whats happening while I AM NOT caught up in the moment. In the games we've won close, we've won because Sanchez made big time plays late, in clutch situations. In games we've lost, the offense has underperformed with drops and bad play calling. And the fact that Sanchez had to make HUGE plays late against bad teams in as much an indictment on the team as it is a credit to him.
Did you read the article? I ask because the article basically points out the exact opposite of what you said using facts.
WAITASEKKANT....WAITASEKKANT......Thats cuz u da man Bayyybeee...:wink: We all appreciate that you bring the news in bro! :beer:
just try to remember without consulting these stats how many 1st down runs - or runs in general went over 3.5 yards? the answer is not many. which is why to look at the last game with season-averages when we are downtrending significantly will only confuse you. yes. sanchez was bad. but when he's been good, lately, it has just masked the bad running game. the problem is a overall-concept-problem mixed with bad play in a multitude of areas.
The statistics of the article are good but the conclusions and analysis are poor. What stands out to me is The Jets protect Sanchez more than any other QB in the league is protected. There is no QB that is able to pass in more favorable situations than Sanchez. He almost never plays from behind, defenses stack the box with 8-9 men daring him to throw and he has the element of surprise when he throws because of the Jets pass/run ratio. Imagine how bad his stats would be if the Jets ran 50% of the time on 1st down rather than 75%. Imagine how bad his stats would be if he was forced into obvious throwing situations more often. This analysis and everyone I have seen said the same thing when defenses know Sanchez is going to throw he is not just bad but he is the worst in the league by a good margin. Now imagine how bad he would be if defenses respected him and actually played honestly against the pass like they do against an average QB. The Jets offense is based around protecting the team against Sanchez. That is the bottomline. Everything they do is designed to hide Sanchez's deficienies and hope he learns and develops. He makes poor reads, panics, is inaccurate and he fumbles the ball when pressured. Now he is not entirely to blame the number of dropped balls and offensive penalalties this year are amazing as are his inaccurate throws. But the Jets problems this year on offense is simply execution not playcalling. They simply do not convert third downs because of poor play by Sanchez, penalties and dropped balls. A better argument than the play calling is the offensive preparation. The offense is simply not executing. Far to many screw ups. I see almost no drives that end because of poor play calling almost all end because of poor execution whther its a drop, failure to throw to the open WR, Sanchez panicking in the pocket, sack or poor throw. If you want to blame Shotty poor preparation is where to lay blame. Sanchez may have potential but it is hard to argue he is not one of the the worst 5 QBs in the league right now. I can't think of a starting QB that would not be an upgrade. Hopefully in a few years he will grow into being an average QB and maybe better after that.
First down is usually the easiest down to pass on. Because the Jets rarely pass on first down Nacho misses out on a lot of "jump shot" opportunities. The basic premise of the article is that the Jets are too conservative on first down and too aggressive on second down, leaving them in too many difficult to convert 3rd down situations. Basically they're putting Sanchez in very difficult passing situations rather than taking advantage of easier opportunities. Sanchez has been awful the last 2-3 games and has certainly displayed some of the poor mechanics you pointed out, but prior to that he was having a pretty good season for a 2nd year QB. I'm not saying he's not part of the problem, but you're complety ignoring the entire premise of the article and putting all the blame on Sanchez basically for the reason of "you said so".
I am not ignoring the stastics of the article but I am building on the what the stats say and that is whenever Sanchez is put in situations where a pass is expected he is not just bad but the worst in the league. This is not just this study but every study done over the last two years. Whether its a measure of 3rd +5 yards or a measure of 4th quater passing when behind or close. He is always last. The Jets have to protect Sanchez by running the ball, limiting his exposure and making his passing a surprise. Even when the Jets were winning he was awful. The only little that has changed is he being placed in more situations where he has to pass and defenses get to play him honestly. If he was on a normal team where he passed more. played from behind more, did not face 8-9 men in the box to stop the run, and was not protected like he is here, his stats would be much much worse. He would lucky to still be in the league if he was on a normal NFL team. He is in about a good a situation as any young QB can ever find themselves in and he is not progressing. Any average NFL QB that routinely faces defenses daring him to throw should be able to put up great numbers on a consistent basis. Hopefully he will not lose his confidence and the light will turn on for him over the next few years. Is there truly another starting QB in the league not playing for Arizona that would not be an upgrade?
If you don't think he's progressed over last year I don't know what to tell you. These situational stats were comparisons to the best QB's in the league - all of whom have been helped with better passing situations. But you continue to say Sanchez is put in the best situations. I don't get it. Sure, he's a part of the problem, but it seems clear to me that he's starting at a disadvantage because of the situations he's routinely put in.
