BGA: Dolphins at Jets

WhiteShoeWillis · Dec 15, 2010

By Bent on Dec 15, 2010, 10:52 am

Disclaimer: All analysis was taken from the TV coverage, so at times it may have been hard to identify players or what was happening, because I was limited by their footage. However, I have tried to be as accurate as possible and apologize for any inaccuracies or omissions (which I am happy to correct).

Here comes this week’s in-depth analysis of the disappointing loss at the hands of the Dolphins. If you have anything else you’d like me to comment upon, please leave your requests in the comments and I’ll do a follow-up post tonight.

After the jump, catch my analysis of Sunday’s game, including – but not limited to – comments on Wayne Hunter, Sione Pouha and Santonio Holmes.

Strategy

There’s no escaping the fact that this was a horrible offensive performance by the Jets. The execution was as bad as it has been all season, but perhaps a lot of that was caused by the difficult conditions. You only need to look as far as the Dolphins offensive output (half as many yards as the Jets, three yards per pass attempt, one second half first down – against a team which gave up 45 points less than a week earlier) to see how difficult it was to move the ball.

This week, I didn’t like the gameplan. However, I’m not sure what they could have done differently. Before the game, practically everyone was saying that the Jets should commit to the run in difficult conditions and in previous games (Baltimore, Denver, Green Bay) they were chastized for not running enough. After those games, Brian Schottenheimer said that the running game was not working, so they had to pass to try and ensure that they weren’t in obvious passing situations. For some reason, they abandoned that approach against Miami.

What was the reason? Did Rex insist on them trying to establish the run? Was that always the plan once we got to this point of the season? Did Schottenheimier have his Kerry Rhodes moment? Have they lost faith in the passing game in recent weeks? Is it a combination of all these factors?

(NB – By “Kerry Rhodes moment” I am referring to Kerry Rhodes listening to all the criticisms about his play last year and changing the way he plays by gambling and going for the big hit more, only to get himself benched for making more mistakes, thereby proving that the way he was playing already was the best use of his abilities).

Whatever the reason, the Jets tried to run the ball on first and second down a lot more than usual (five times in the first three quarters) and even when there were eight in the box, a definite deviation from previous gameplans. The result? Obvious passing downs. Only one of their 21 third downs was with less than three yards to go (and they ran for a first down). On every other third down, they had to pass, because their running backs were averaging fewer than three yards against a normal defense, let alone a short yardage defense. They were actually a respectible three-for-five in manageable third down situations (less than five yards to go).

I want to look back at one play in particular to examine some of the third down playcalling. On the TV broadcast, Dan Fouts openly criticized a third and five play because the ball was thrown to Dustin Keller two yards short of the marker and with his momentum not carrying him upfield. Terrible play call? Actually, this was – you’ve guessed it – terrible execution by three different players. Clearly this was intended to be a legal pick play (something which Schottenheimer has been criticized for never using). However, Santonio Holmes ran a quick slant, which should have disrupted Sean Smith just long enough for Keller to get half a step on him and be able to catch the ball with his momentum headed upfield. In fact, if the pick was clean enough, he would have had green grass ahead of him. Holmes completely missed his assignment and didn’t slow Smith down at all. Sanchez hesitated momentarily, as if he had seen that the play wasn’t going to work. Keller still ran the out, but obviously couldn’t turn upfield without the ball, so the momentary delay was costly. From the footage, you can’t really tell if Sanchez could have gone to another option. Doomed to failure? Not if they executed it properly.

Over the last few games, many wondered why the Jets – a supposed “ground and pound” team – often seemed reluctant to run the ball in short yardage situations. I suggested that they struggled to pick up yardage consistently enough against certain teams with eight men in the box, so probably considered the pass to be a higher percentage option when faced with a short yardage defense. Against other teams (like Buffalo and Cleveland), the Jets have been confident enough to run the ball with success in these situations. On fourth and two, the Jets bucked a trend and tried to run it up the middle only to be stuffed for no gain. Clearly a bad decision because the Jets are not a good power running team and were not last year either, but it almost vindicates the gameplan in previous weeks.

So, it’s a rainy day, your running game isn’t working, the defense is dropping guys into coverage to make intermediate routes tough passes, the conditions are making it difficult for your receivers to run sharp cuts and get open, your quarterback is under more pressure than usual due to injuries on the offensive line, your receivers can’t seem to catch the ball consistently, the wind makes it impossible to throw deep with any kind of accuracy and your quarterback struggles with the short passing game. Choose your own adventure. (Spoiler: All of the options end with “Turn to page 56″ and page 56 describes the punt unit walking onto the field).

Both teams faced these situations, so what can you do? Look after the ball, win the field position battle, try and break a big play here and there and convert when you get into position. That was essentially both teams’ gameplan. Miami just won because the Jets turned it over in their own half and because Miami’s punter had an unbelievably consistent game.

Notwithstanding the fact that the Jets gained twice as many yards as Miami and there were several plays that should have gone for big gains, only for inaccurate throws, missed blocks or dropped catches to cause them to fail, Brian Schottenheimer isn’t getting good results right now. The criminally bad execution falls squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. Sanchez is inaccurate, but where are Cavanaugh/Brunell to correct his faults? The offense isn’t doing a good enough job of getting guys open, but where is Henry Ellard to work on improved routes that get separation? The running game has struggled all year, but why isn’t the running game co-ordinator (Bill Callahan) getting criticism? Schottenheimer is the offensive co-ordinator though, so it is up to him (and Rex Ryan) to co-ordinate his staff. That, to me, is a much bigger issue that the offensive gameplan and playcalling right now.

So, Schottenheimer does have work to do, whether that is in terms of improving technique, motivating lazy players, simplifying things for those who are struggling or coming up with ways to overcome the poor execution and still make big plays. However, he still comes in for plenty of harsh criticism. Here are some of the things I’ve seen written about him this week:

- He doesn’t even try to get Dustin Keller involved in the offensive gameplan. (Keller was targeted a season high ten times this week).
- He only ever throws downfield to Braylon Edwards and never gives him any short passes. (Edwards has been targeted as follows – less than ten yards: 31. 10-20 yards: 18. More than 20 yards: 24).
- He uses the same formations over and over again. (Other than in the two minute drill, the Jets rarely have the same personnel in for more than two plays in a row and have more different formations that every other offense I’ve seen this year, including new variations every single week).
- He only ever runs the ball up the middle. (On Sunday, they ran outside five times…for zero yards. In other games it has been more).

There were plenty more, but the pattern is clear. I have to conclude that making a change, whether it be now or after the season, isn’t going to make much difference, because most of the things he’s being berated for not doing are either things which aren’t going to work or things he’s been doing anyway. Some want him to run more, some want him to pass more. Some want him to run fewer gadget plays, some want him to run more gadget plays. Some want him to simplify the offense, some think it’s too predictable. Hindsight is always 20:20, but they made changes a lot of you wanted before the game this week and got worse.

Enough of that, let’s talk about the defense. Once again, Rex said he would fix the defense and he did. If they play like that every week, they will be in every game and even if the gameplan never improves, all they’ll have to do is catch the ball with more consistency to win. Of course, part of the defensive success was due to the same conditions that blighted the Jets offense (although Fouts described the weather as “not that bad”). However, the pass rush not only generated pressure, but actually completed sacks this week, which suggests the Jets did a solid job in coverage. 5-for-18 and three yards per pass attempt reinforces that.
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http://www.thejetsblog.com/2010/12/15/bga-dolphins-at-jets/#more-34311

WhiteShoeWillis · Dec 15, 2010

continued ...

Rex came under a lot of criticism for the fact that Brandon Marshall was matched up against Bart Scott when he caught his touchdown pass, but they actually matched him up with a linebacker for most of the day (usually Scott, but sometimes Calvin Pace) and they jammed him at the line, which worked really well. In the first meeting, Marshall was targeted 17 times. On Sunday, it was just five and he dropped two of those. A deep one was broken up by Cromartie and the only catch he had other than the touchdown should have been called back for offensive pass interference.

Despite the great defensive effort, Rex apparently tore into the defensive players after the game. I have no explaination for this, but it can only have been a motivational ploy, surely. Whether Rex has decided their best chance to win is for the defense to play even better or was just trying to make the offense feel bad and step it up, I don’t know. Eiher way, let’s hope they perform like that over the last three games.

Quarterback

For Mark Sanchez, positives from Sunday were few and far between. He tucked and ran for two first downs – something he still doesn’t do enough as far as I’m concerned – made nice downfield throws to Holmes and Keller and had some good throws that were dropped, including one to Cotchery that should have gone for a big play on the final drive and a potential touchdown to Holmes.

Negatives were far more prevalent. He completed under 40% of his passes, failed to protect the ball as he had been doing earlier in the year and coped badly under pressure. Sanchez was under pressure 18 times, ran once, was sacked six times and completed just 2-of-11 passes for 33 yards. He also fumbled four times – something he had eradicated from his game until recently. Three passes were batted down at the line (for the record, he now trails only Donovan McNabb in that category). He underthrew deep balls to both Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery, threw behind Keller on a key third down, completely missed Shonn Greene and fired the ball too hard at Keller on a pair of screen passes that looked set to gain decent yardage and his timing was off on two back shoulder throws to Holmes, causing two turnovers.

Unfortunately, the Jets apparently can’t lean on their running game as they did last year, so the Jets offense will continue to struggle unless Sanchez can be more accurate with his passing. He was playing well less than a month ago, so what’s the issue? Is it the body language fines? The foam bats? The cold weather? Is he hurt? Was he becoming complacent? Has his technique lapsed through laziness or bad coaching? Is it a combination of these factors? Again, I can’t answer, but if he plays like that on Sunday, he WILL be benched.

Offensive Line

I was extremely concerned before the Bengals game, because the Jets gave up a lot more pressure than usual once Wayne Hunter entered the game against Cleveland. Damien Woody going down again was therefore an “uh-oh” moment for me. Hunter gave up three sacks, two hits and two pressures, including two sacks on the final series and one that caused a turnover. So far this season, Hunter has given up pressure at a rate more than three times as much as Woody (Hunter: Seven sacks/hits, 11 pressures in 106 passing plays, Woody: Seven sacks/hits, 12 pressures in 378 passing plays). Hunter is adequate as a run blocker, but that too is a big step down from Woody, who was grading out as the 2nd best runblocker on the team. So, this is a big loss – and again comes on the heels of a short week, where they probably spent all their time preparing for Miami to drop seven guys into coverage and how they would get open, so weren’t prepared to leave a blocker in to help him out. (Something that will presumably change this week).

Nick Mangold had another solid game this week. He had his hands full with Paul Soliai, who performed well for Miami, but was dominant in the running game and only gave up one pressure. Of course, that dominance in the running game didn’t translate to any success running the ball, because everybody else on the line, plus the fullback and both tight ends, graded out negatively.

Brandon Moore gave up two pressures and had his worst overall grade since week two of last season. He was particularly ineffective in the running game. Matt Slauson continued to struggle, as he had since his knee injury. He wasn’t that bad in the running game, with some good early blocks, but gave up a sack and four pressures in pass protection. D’Brickashaw Ferguson only gave up one QB hit, as Cameron Wake did all of his damage against Hunter, but was also ineffective in the running game, although he was the only starter other than Mangold to grade out positively overall.

Many people have suggested that the Jets offensive line is not very good. That simply isn’t true. PFF rates them as 4th best for run blocking and 3rd best for pass blocking. Injuries have affected them, though. Slauson has not been the same since he hurt his knee and the unit takes a big hit when Woody is out. Also, Nick Mangold – who is now back to being PFF’s top-ranked center – has been much better in the second half of the year than he was earlier on in the season, when he was struggling with a shoulder problem.

The Jets haven’t missed Alan Faneca this year, because Slauson (even with his recent struggles) has been better as a run blocker and a pass blocker than Faneca was to this point of the season last year and than he has been with the Cardinals this season. However, this was the stage of the season where Faneca did actually start to perform like an elite player in 2009. With the Jets’ line being banged up, I don’t know that they can have the same kind of success as they did during the closing stages of the 2009 season. Of course, that doesn’t mean that a Faneca with an extra year of tread on his tires would have stepped his level of play up again if the Jets had retained him.
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WhiteShoeWillis · Dec 15, 2010

continued ...

Running Backs

The two running backs combined for just 66 yards on 27 carries. Neither was able to break a tackle, with Tomlinson twice being one on one with a DB, but unable to get past them. They didn’t get much help from the offensive line, though, as 48 of those 66 yards came after contact.

Shonn Greene continued to show signs of improvement as a pass catcher, with three catches for a career-high 29 yards. LaDainian Tomlinson, however, had just two catches for five yards and a drop. He also gave up a hit and a pressure in pass protection.

Joe McKnight saw a couple of snaps on offense this week, even catching a short pass. It will be interesting to see if they try and work him into the offense in coming weeks. The other rookie back, John Conner, did not feature on offense this week.

At fullback, Tony Richardson got all the reps and did a particularly poor job on the 4th and two run by Greene, although Slauson was not fast enough as he pulled and failed to block Wake off the opposite edge and Hunter could perhaps have done something to disrupt Wake’s path too. Richardson also gave up a pressure in pass protection.

Tight Ends and Receivers

Once again, the Jets average 1.5 dropped catches in games they’ve won and now 5.8 in games they’ve lost, so once they started dropping the ball, that was another major red flag.

Holmes’ drop in the endzone was unconscionable, but his effort on some other plays also gives cause for concern. I’ve already mentioned the failed pick play on third down and the two back shoulder throws where the timing between him and Sanchez was off. On each of those plays, he didn’t seem to break from his route with the usual crispness we’re accustomed to. It’s almost as if he wasn’t expecting the ball, although perhaps the field condition played a part. One was intercepted and the other fell incomplete on fourth down. All told, he caught just two of eight passes thrown his way (although one was a spectacular diving catch deep downfield).

Jerricho Cotchery had a couple more drops, although he immediately made up for one of them with a catch and run to convert the first down on the play afterwards (although the one he dropped would probably have gone for more yards). Statistically, his five catch, 69 yard performance was his best of the season, although they had to throw to him 11 times to get that. He did break two tackles though, which was more than anyone else on the team managed.

Braylon Edwards was targeted just twice, Brad Smith was never thrown to and Patrick Turner did not play on offense.

As noted, Dustin Keller was targeted 10 times, but just caught three passes. He had two drops, although both were probably more down to Sanchez’ inaccuracy than anything else. More disconcerting was his performance as a run blocker, following some apparent recent improvements. As Fouts noted, he completely missed a block on a Seminole play in the first half and posted his worst run blocking grade of the season. Ben Hartsock wasn’t any better though, with his worst run blocking grade since last season, as well as two costly penalties.

Defensive Line

Onto brighter things. Sione Pouha was absolutely terrific in this one, with eight tackles and a great job of anchoring the run defense. He even added a fumble recovery and a sack for good measure. Two youngsters, Matt Kroul and Vernon Gholston, saw plenty of playing time and the defense didn’t miss a beat. Mike DeVito also turned in a solid performance against the run, although he again didn’t generate any pressure.

Shaun Ellis played for just 30 snaps, which was the lowest amount this season, other than the Bills game where he was rested late. He had a sack and a pressure, but struggled against the run. Trevor Pryce only played nine snaps and not at all in the last 23 minutes. He also had a pressure but struggled on the three plays where they ran it with him in.

Miami did eventually surpass the 100-yard rushing plateau, but it took them 32 carries to do it and they were held to just 0.5 yards before contact per carry. In terms of pressure, the Jets sent an average of 4.3 players and blitzed 50% of the time, which generated five sacks, two hits and eight pressures on 26 dropbacks.

Linebackers

The linebackers were consistently solid across the board. Bart Scott played the whole game for only the second time this season and had nine tackles. He also generated a hit and a pressure and played a key role in pass coverage, as mentioned.

Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace only had four tackles between them, but graded out positively against the run and added a sack each, with Pace’s sack also forcing a fumble. Pace has to do a better job of generating more consistent pressure. He only had more than one pressure in a game once this season and that was back in week five.

David Harris had a good game rushing the passer (three pressures) and only gave up one short catch in pass coverage, but missed two tackles in run defense.

Jason Taylor’s promised increased playing time didn’t really materialize. He was in for 27 plays and 46% of the time, but for the season he is averaging 37 plays and 57% of the snaps. However, he did play ten snaps more than he did against New England (albeit that he missed part of the game with an injury) and he did play more as an OLB than he had been since Pace’s return. He wasn’t a factor against the run, but did have a pressure, a hit, a fumble recovery and a dropped interception.

Defensive Backs

It was a solid job by the secondary all day. The only reception given up by either cornerback should have been a penalty on Brandon Marshall and both Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie contributed against the run.

At safety, Brodney Pool had perhaps his best game, with a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. He added a pressure and three tackles and did not give up a catch in coverage. Eric Smith continues to be more dependable as a starter than as a backup. He had 4 tackles and there didn’t seem to be much confusion defensively, other than on the one play where there were nine players in and they had to burn a timeout, which is on the coaches. As noted, when Brandon Marshall found himself matched up with a linebacker, that was by design. His one lapse saw him beaten downfield by Anthony Fasano for a 28 yard gain – over half of Miami’s passing yardage.

Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery backed them up. Neither gave up a catch and Lowery had one pass breakup. Emmanuel Cook and Kyle Wilson did not see any action on defense.

Special Teams

Nick Folk was actually good this week. He made both field goals and his kickoffs landed at the one yard line on average. Steve Weatherford was okay, but his performance was blown out of the water by Brandon Fields, whose performance accounted for at least 100 extra yards of field position. Brad Smith had one nice kickoff return and the punt return by committee approach looks a little more dangerous than Jim Leonhard did. Joe McKnight nearly blocked another punt and did a tremendous job as the gunner, but had another missed tackle and the Jets are still not doing a very good job against other team’s gunners – with or without a “wall”.
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Leicester Jet · Dec 15, 2010

Great Job on the analysis - its only after you see all the facts and figures that you can really make a judgement on the game (it also helps to calm down for a day or two!)

Thats why I always try not to post after a game or the day after - just chill out and look at the facts first.

624 · Dec 15, 2010

So why isn't the offense executing.

It seems like the playcalling isn't that horrible, but the execution is.

That doesn't mean that Schotty and Co. still aren't at blame.

They need to get better in practice.

JoeWillie130 · Dec 15, 2010

Great analysis as usual. Don't think the weather should be an excuse though. I was at the game and although I have never played pro football myself I find it hard to believe we couldn't perform in that weather. If that was the case then we might as well pack it in because weather will only be worse going forward.

Clearly woody being out is huge. I hope we find a way to fix the level of play at rt otherwise it could mean trouble.

Jetsfaninva · Dec 15, 2010

its just simple
RUN RUN RUN
we should of demolished the fins..

WhiteShoeWillis · Dec 15, 2010

Jetsfaninva said: ↑

its just simple
RUN RUN RUN
we should of demolished the fins..
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Yea those 2 YPC were really getting it done. We should have done more of it.

grayburn · Dec 15, 2010

Awesome analysis, but now I'm even more worried.

34miami23 · Dec 15, 2010

Jetsfaninva said: ↑

its just simple
RUN RUN RUN
we should of demolished the fins..
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the way both offenses were playing, nobody was going to demolish anybody! lol

16 points by both teams together - 13 off turnovers.

AbdulSalam · Dec 15, 2010

Awesome Analysis WSW - thanks.

624 said: ↑

So why isn't the offense executing.

It seems like the playcalling isn't that horrible, but the execution is.

That doesn't mean that Schotty and Co. still aren't at blame.

They need to get better in practice.
Click to expand...

Well exactly. calling plays that are brilliant except that for whatever reason the team is unable to execute them - has the same net result as calling stupid plays. It doesn't really matter how great your playcalling is when your players have not been properly prepared to execute the plays that you call. Its still on Schotty and the CS and the players for not executing. Arguing that the players sucked doesn't excuse Schotty at this point. Sorry but that dog just won't hunt.

NDmick · Dec 15, 2010

The 1st part of the article shows the difference between a real coach and a fake one.

Rex fixes shit when he says he's going to fix it.

Schotty seems not to have a clue, considering the offense has not run with the efficiency its capable of running since September, and the Texans game.

They are both sons of NFL coaches, successful NFL coaches.

Its prevalent that one should not be leading an entire phase of a game. Its just not his playcalling. If a whole offense can't get their shit together, its on him because it means the preparation is bad.

I'm fed up with it.

maynardsmyhero-uk · Dec 16, 2010

Thing about the personnel that schitty uses is so accurate.If we can tell the plays what the hell do we think the opponent is doing.

BGA: Dolphins at Jets

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