Outsider’s View: Miami Dolphins Week 3

WhiteShoeWillis · Sep 23, 2010

I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.

(As a heads up, negative percentages are good on defense, bad on offense & specials)

Pass Offense: 16.5% (14th)
Rush Offense: -6.0% (18th)

Analysis: When I think of the Miami offense over the past few years, I immediately knee-jerk to the Wildcat, to the best running team in the league. Right now, the Dolphins aren’t pounding the ball as much as they’ve been in years past, but then again they don’t need to. Ronnie Brown has been back to his old tricks (somewhat) again so far this year, but the addition of Brandon Marshall has changed the dynamic of their offense for the Dolphins. Henne & Marshall might still be finding their stride, as the two are only working on a 57% completion rate (12 receptions in 21 targets) so the Jets should work to hamper their mojo as best they can.

Marshall’s a fantastic athlete, quick and nimble, able to high-point a ball, then stop on a dime after the catch to avoid tackles and get a few more yards before help arrives. I wouldn’t exactly say he’s super-physical, so he and Cromartie could be well matched for each other when the ball is in the air. Marshall and Cromartie have an AFC West history, as Tim Graham noted the other day on the AFC East blog.

Watch this highlight video and see how many times Marshall evades the tackle after the catch it’s not like he’s running over guys, he’s breaking their ankles.

So while they are well matched when the ball is in the air, I do fear that once Marshall has the ball, coupled with Cromartie’s tackling history, it’s could be off at the races for Marshall. Still it seems that Cromartie has played well enough to keep him from getting the ball much.

So what does that mean? Assuming that Revis is out of the game, I think it means that Pettine – at least at the outset of the game – should consider rolling the safety over the top to make sure that Marshall doesn’t burn Cromartie deep, and give up the short yardage in single coverage to Davone Bess on the underneath routes. Once they get a feel for how the two will play against each other, then they can move that one-high safety elsewhere.

Where else can the Jets attack this offense? It’s not going to be at the point of attack on the running game, as the Dolphins are one of the better run blocking offensive lines in the league. but rather when the Dolphins pass the ball. Football Outsiders ranks them 25th in pass protection, and the Dolphins have allowed five sacks and eleven quarterback hits in two games, many of those in the opening Bills game … so maybe some things got tightened up in the second week.

All the same, Rex’s fire-zone scheme should be able to rattle Henne, who with a legitimate deep threat in Marshall could be holding onto the ball more this year than in the past. With all that said, don’t forget that Rex’s old boss from Baltimore, Mike Nolan, will be running the defense on the other side of the field.

Pass Defense: –43.3% (5th)
Rush Defense: -8.2% (17th)
Analysis: Mike Nolan is going to get a lot of praise for his work with this unit, if he hasn’t already … and rightly so. The former Niners Head Coach and Ravens DC is a solid coordinator, and is fitting nicely into this role again. He’s helping to teach this unit to pressure the passer, and as we saw last week against the Vikings, opportunities will present themselves.

Of course, we’re just two weeks into the season, but the Dolphins secondary has answered the bell so far, but so far they’ve seen Buffalo and Lord Favre, who looks like he sliding nicely into his (since ‘06) traditional “even numbered year crater.” If you go back and watch the game, Favre threw some typically awful interceptions against the Dolphins … so while they’ve looked good so far, let’s see how the rest of the season bears out for them.

For the Jets, they can win on the ground if they can get enough hats on the Dolphins linemen, and then grind yards into a group of linebackers that currently ranks 23rd against the run. This means that Shonn Greene should be an integral part of the game plan, and that the Jets might be wise to try some probing run plays to use LaDainian to run right at Cameron Wake to expose the speed rusher and see how he fares against the run. In the air, the Jets are getting criticized for their playing Edwards, but with a limited receiver corps, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Jets. The two areas where the Dolphins have been weak in the passing game so far have been in third/slot receivers, and against Tight Ends. This puts into context the activation of Patrick Turner, he might see action come Sunday night. Just like last week, the Jets should be wise to look to Dustin Keller. he could have a big game raking this linebacking corps.

Special Teams: -2.8% (21st)
Analysis: The good news? Ted Ginn no longer players for the Dolphins and Larry Izzo no longer plays for the Jets. The Jets and Dolphins match up decently here … neither team stands out one way or the other, but the Jets have a slight edge in their coverage games. To avoid last year’s mistakes, the Jets will have to make sure that their coverage units are better this year than they were in the Dolphins game last time, and that means discipline in lane coverage.
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http://www.thejetsblog.com/2010/09/23/outsiders-view-miami-dolphins-week-3/

Hobbes3259 · Sep 23, 2010

Good Read...Thanks for posting WSW~!

Al13 · Sep 23, 2010

i stopped reading when it said "marshall not physical"

WhiteShoeWillis · Sep 23, 2010

Al13 said: ↑

i stopped reading when it said "marshall not physical"
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You must not be very good at reading because it doesn't say that.

Al13 · Sep 23, 2010

WhiteShoeWillie said: ↑

You must not be very good at reading because it doesn't say that.
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sums it up pretty close though

Al13 · Sep 23, 2010

i´m just kiddin man, overall its a pretty objective write up, good job

Big Blocker · Sep 23, 2010

Kyle will be the key as much as Cro. If Kyle can cover Bess without much help, the Jets can for this one game role safety help on Marshall and still have the other safety to roam.

WhiteShoeWillis · Sep 23, 2010

Al13 said: ↑

i´m just kiddin man, overall its a pretty objective write up, good job
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I didn't write it. It's only week 2 so the stats are pretty weak but there were some interesting thoughts in there.

dawinner127 · Sep 23, 2010

Big Blocker said: ↑

Kyle will be the key as much as Cro. If Kyle can cover Bess without much help, the Jets can for this one game role safety help on Marshall and still have the other safety to roam.
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My thoughts exactly. I don't think Wilson will have any trouble with Bess after lining up against Boldin and Welker in weeks one and two.

Clown · Sep 23, 2010

great read indeed. The safety play will be VERY important in this game

Pluvrr · Sep 23, 2010

yup good read and analysis again!

kinghenry89 · Sep 23, 2010

Big Blocker said: ↑

Kyle will be the key as much as Cro. If Kyle can cover Bess without much help, the Jets can for this one game role safety help on Marshall and still have the other safety to roam.
Click to expand...

I agree, the Jets will absolutely have to roll safety coverage over to help out Cromartie. They may even have to double up on Marshall--he's unbelievable after the catch and Cro is a shitty tackler. Bad combination for the Jets.

ukilledkenny · Sep 23, 2010

Cro should have a good chance to increase his INT numbers with Henne looking to force it to Marshall with the pressure in his face. I think Lowery is gonna be key to this game. He is gonna have to be the over the top coverage guy unless Pool has some coverage skills I haven't seen.

The Dark Knight · Sep 23, 2010

People keep forgetting Henne sucks. At least I remembered. Miami will need to pull a Ravens and win 10-9 if they want a chance. Still, 42-3 Jets seems more likely to me. Is Pennington the backup or 3rd string? I'd like to see him play this week. Make it happen Scotty!

gustoonarmy · Sep 24, 2010

Pretty fair analysis, especially about Greene and the Phins LBs. If Greene and the O line can get to the next level , whooosh baby!!

vilmatic · Sep 24, 2010

I have a feeling Cumberland is going to come out of nowhere this game.

Outsider’s View: Miami Dolphins Week 3

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