You have the #1 pick (well, I have the #1 pick). Who do you take? Chris Johnson's massive upside or Adrian Peterson's relative stability? In a PPR league that also rewards 100, 150, and 175 yard rushing (and receiving) games with 5 pts each, I've been leaning towards CJ, partly for the PPR, and partly because when he goes off, he goes crazy. But now, I'm starting to think I should play it safer and go with AP. He's an elite talent who will get more catches now that Chester Taylor is gone. At the same time, I am worried about Toby Gerhart taking goalline carries, but on the other hand, he's a rookie, and they might trust Peterson more if he slows his fumbling down a little bit. I like Tennessee's offensive line a little better than Minnesota's. But CJ also touched the ball over 400 times last year and had ridiculously long runs to pad his stats. Can that happen again? It's a tough choice. What do you guys think. I was leaning CJ, and now I'm back on the fence.
I'd take CJ... AP has a bad fumbling issue, and that's really tough to overcome. Unless he really prooves in the preseason he can hold the ball, I'd expect Toby to get alot of the goalline beatings and points. CJ will probly lose some carries with VJ around all year, but I still think he prooves to be the more point friendly back.
If you're trading him go with CJ. If you're set on keeping that player I would go AD. He's going to be a solid 1500 yard back with 12+TDs and CJ could have a huge slip in FF points this year as all 2000 yard backs do.
As for the overall decision, it has to be Johnson. He's the only choice you can make. Johnson may not be able to replicate what he did last season, but even if he is just one step behind he'll still be an absolute monster. He's going to get the big time touches, even if they cut his carries to around 300 he'll still catch 50 balls, and quite frankly there's just no way defenses are going to hold that man to less than 2000 yards all purpose barring injury. To top things off, I really don't understand why his critics (as few as there are) say that he couldn't possibly rip off all the big plays he did last year again. Why not? He's still the most athletically gifted offensive player in the NFL, and last I checked no one's figured out how to stop him yet. And in a league that rewards monster performances you can't not take him, he would have added an extra 90 points to your team based on his stats last year.
Yeah, today I'm back leaning towards CJ. He's lighter, so he could get hurt, but he never really has. There is the course of 400, but I don't remember him taking that many big hits. Peterson has had some injury problems in the past, and if he keeps fumbling, Gerhart could take goalline.
You have to think too, how many direct hits does this kid take? I'm not sure that he with 20+ touches will take the same punishment as a guy like Peterson who runs upright and stands about 6'2 even with half the touches. He's never had injuries as far as I know, at least not anything near the constant dings that have always plagued AD, even back at Oklahoma. The other thing with Peterson is that he's always had the fumbling issue because he has never been able to switch his ball hand or secure it in traffic. Look at his highlight tapes from Oklahoma, he runs exactly the same now without any understanding of ball security. He was always too much of a natural At the hard stuff to get that fundamental, I guess.
Peterson might be a more traditional back, but I don't understand how anyone can pass up a guy that just made it look easy last year like Johnson did. He's young, he's been unbelievable his entire 2 season career, and no one can keep up with him. Barry Sanders went from 2,000 yds down to almost 1,500 yds the next season. Other players who hit 2000 have dropped considerably more. From what I've seen of CJ so far, I'd say he's closer in ability to Barry than the others. If I'm drafting 1st, I will not complain with a 1400-1500 yd season from CJ with his fair share of TDs. He's the surest thing in this draft in my opinion.
The thing with AP is that you have to figure Favre into his stats. Last year he rushed for less yards & had less carries then the previous year but had his career high in catches. Now that Favre is gone, will he get back to 380+ rushes and 1700+ yards but he will probably have less catches since Tavaris wont throw as much as Favre. The Vikings will have a more run orientated offense this year. I think you need to judge AP on his 2008 stats more than his 2009 stats. I think that you are golden with either player. I would go with the more consistent player in your mind. Its better to get the 20 pts every week rather than a week of 10 pts and the next week 30 pts.
CJ had a monster year. I'd take either one honestly. In an intelligence contest, I'd take a 4 day-old dog shit before Chris Johnson. He might be the biggest tard alive.
CJ. As others have mentioned, AP's still got his fumble problem. Might depend on scoring, Peterson will probably get more rushing touchdowns, CJ more yards.
No Favre means more touches for AP (maybe more fumbles too), but I think we are all still expecting ol number 4 to play
I'm a Peterson fan, and he's been a lock to perform at a high fantasy level. That said, I'd go with Chris Johnson and his slightly higher ceiling. Only an injury would prevent him from being dominant again, and who can predict that.
I love watching CJ2K play, but I think I would use my first over-all pick on Adrian Peterson. I just think it is going to be hard for CJ to repeat such a great season, although I could be eating my words...and regretting my first over-all pick!
CJ is #1. More versatility and you never know if Gerhart is going to start taking GL carries from Peterson at some point. Gerharts a tank... it'll happen, but the question is if it's going to be this year or not.
I would pick AP. There is no suitable backup in Minny, his offence is better and CJ will wear down (curse of 400 touches)
