from ESPN : Patriots Beat by Tom E. Curran: Dolphins and Jets gained on Pats in the AFC East 01:00 AM EDT on Sunday, May 28, 2006 The only thing "off" about the NFL's offseason these days are the pads. The competitive vibe from the regular season and playoffs rolls right into the so-called downtime as teams labor from early March through the start of June to make moves that position them to either remain competitive or become that way. For the most part, the moves are over. Here's what four months of offseason work in the AFC East's front offices has yielded. THE PATRIOTS WHO'S IN: WR Reche Caldwell (free agent, Chargers), CB Eric Warfield (free agent, Chiefs), S Tebucky Jones (cut, Dolphins), LB Barry Gardner (cut, Jets), K Martin Gramatica (free agent, Colts), RB Laurence Maroney (first-rounder, Vikings), Chad Jackson (second-rounder, Florida), K Steve Gostkowski (fourth-rounder, Memphis), DC Dean Pees (elevated from LB coach) WHO'S OUT: K Adam Vinatieri (free agent, Colts), OLB Willie McGinest (Browns), WR David Givens (free agent, Titans), RT Tom Ashworth (free agent, Seahawks), WR Tim Dwight (free agent, Jets), LB Matt Chatham (free agent, Jets) TE Christian Fauria (free agent, Redskins), DC Eric Mangini (head coach, Jets) WHAT'S INTERESTING: The courtship of Ty Law continues with the Patriots, Chiefs, Titans and Seahawks in the running. New England would be happy to have him back at the right price. If Law returns -- and he'll likely make up his mind sometime next month -- he'll significantly upgrade the secondary. The Patriots have the second-most available cap space in the league (around $10 million) so they have a cushion available for him. The influx of offensive players from the draft and the rapid maturation of Benjamin Watson in the second half of 2005 bodes well for an offense that was a tad inconsistent last year. WHAT'S TROUBLING: Defensively, the Patriots are counting on step-up performances from their linebackers, particularly ILB Monty Beisel and OLB Tully Banta-Cain. If neither can rise to the occasion, the Pats may have to juggle schemes to cover up a dearth of depth at linebacker. Also, injuries to key players like LT Matt Light, SS Rodney Harrison, C Dan Koppen and RB Corey Dillon remain a source of concern until they're going full bore. Can the new kicker -- Gostkowski or Gramatica -- stop folks from lamenting the loss of Adam Vinatieri? And is Matt Cassel good enough to be a heartbeat from quarterbacking one of the league's best teams? THE UPSHOT: The Pats get cuffed around for not doing much this offseason but that ignores the guys they re-signed last year that would have hit free agency this offseason, namely Tom Brady and Mike Vrabel. Beyond that, they got Richard Seymour done -- no small feat given the tenor of those talks last summer. Still, the '06 free agent imports seem pedestrian, the exports were pretty good. Losing McGinest and Vinatieri could well have lasting impact. The Patriots have a lot of "ifs" hanging out there but even if those don't fall their way, they're still among the AFC elite. THE DOLPHINS WHO'S IN: QB Daunte Culpepper (trade, Vikings), QB Joey Harrington (trade, Lions), OT L.J. Shelton (Browns), WR Kelly Campbell (Vikings), CB Will Allen (Giants), CB Renaldo Hill (Raiders), CB Andre Goodman, (Lions), LB Sedrick Hodge (Saints), CB Jason Allen (first rounder, Tennessee), WR Derek Hagan (third-rounder, Arizona State), DC Dom Capers (head coach, Texans), OC Mike Mularkey (head coach, Buffalo) WHO'S OUT: CB Sam Madison (Giants), LB Junior Seau (not attached), S Tebucky Jones (Patriots), QB Gus Frerotte (Rams), CB Reggie Howard (Panthers), OT Stockar McDougle (Jaguars), QB Sage Rosenfels (Texans), CB Kiwaukee Thomas (Bills), RB Ricky Williams (suspended), OC Scott Linehan (head coach, Rams), DC Richard Smith (defensive coordinator, Texans) WHAT'S INTERESTING: The Miami offensive line under coach Hudson Houck was a strong suit in 2005 and the addition of Shelton at left tackle should make it even better. With Ricky Williams out of the way, the Dolphins can now get to figuring how to best deploy the outstanding Ronnie Brown, who should be a real weapon at running back. The addition of the blitz-happy Capers as defensive coordinator makes Miami that much more dangerous. WHAT'S TROUBLING: The on-the-rise Dolphins are turning their offense (and, in large part, their chances) to Daunte Culpepper, who is coming off a major knee injury and a precarious slip from very good (64 TDs, 22 picks in 03-04) to awful (6 TDs, 12 picks in 7 games in '05). Culpepper is going to have to show how good he can be without Randy Moss. In a division with defensive-minded coaches salivating at the prospect of defending him, Culpepper is going to have a very hard time doing that. Meanwhile, the Dolphins turned their nose up to Drew Brees, a guy who plays extremely well against Miami's chief rival, New England. THE UPSHOT: This team won its last six games in 2005 and is following the classic arc of a team headed in the right direction under new leadership. Nick Saban certainly has his team's attention in South Florida. The best additions this offseason are the two coaches and defensive back Jason Allen in the draft. But the quality of this offseason rides on Culpepper proving he's not this decade's Drew Bledsoe. THE BILLS WHO'S IN: GM Marv Levy (retirement), HC Dick Jauron (head coach Bears), LB Larry Triplett (Colts), RB Anthony Thomas (Saints), OL Aaron Gibson (Bears), WR Andre Davis (Patriots), WR Peerless Price (Cowboys), OG Tutan Reyes (Panthers), S Matt Bowen (Redskins), S Donte Whitner (first-rounder Ohio State), CB Ashton Youboty (third-rounder, Ohio State), FS Ko Simpson (fourth-rounder, South Carolina). WHO'S OUT: OT Mike Williams (Jaguars), WR Eric Moulds (Texans), S Lawyer Milloy (Falcons), DT Sam Adams (Bengals), TE Mark Campbell (Saints), HC Mike Mularkey (offensive coordinator, Miami) WHAT'S INTERESTING: LB Takeo Spikes is making his way back from the knee injury that ended his 2005 season almost before it started and the addition of Triplett makes the Buffalo linebackers corps pretty good. Most felt that taking Whitner with the eighth overall pick was a severe reach, but between he, Youboty and Simpson, the Bills had a strong draft in the secondary. WHAT'S TROUBLING: How is this offense going to score? J.P. Losman was alarmingly ineffective in 2005 and Kelly Holcomb, a pretty good quarterback, is a concussion waiting to happen. Now Moulds is gone and the Bills threw a ton of money at Price who's been a flop the past two seasons since leaving the Bills. THE UPSHOT: This franchise was turned upside down, held by the ankles and shaken in the offseason. Falling loose were several very good players, most prominently Milloy, Moulds and Adams. The venerable Levy, now 80 years old, has made some head-scratching decisions and this franchise could be very, very bad in 2006 thanks to their weird offseason in which too much talent went out the door and not enough came back in. :beer: THE JETS WHO'S IN: HC Eric Mangini (defensive coordinator, Patriots), OT Trey Teague (Bills), CB Andre Dyson (Seahawks), QB Patrick Ramsey (Redskins), DE Kimo von Oelhoffen (Steelers), LB Matt Chatham (Patriots), WR Tim Dwight (Patriots), LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson (first-rounder Virginia Tech), C Nick Mangold (first-rounder, Ohio State), QB Kellen Clemens (second-rounder, Oregon), ILB Anthony Schlegel (third-rounder, Ohio State), WR Brad Smith (fourth-rounder, Missouri), RB Leon Washington (fourth-rounder, Florida State) WHO'S OUT: DE John Abraham (traded to Falcons), C Kevin Mawae (Titans), CB Ty Law (unattached), QB Jay Fiedler (unattached), OT Jason Fabini (Cowboys), FB Jerald Sowell (Buccaneers) WHAT'S INTERESTING: The Jets could have rookies at the two most important offensive line positions but left tackle Ferguson and center Mangold were regarded by some as the two best linemen in the draft. WHAT'S TROUBLING: The Jets offensive skill positions are in disarray. Curtis Martin is slowing down, Chad Pennington keeps breaking down and, while Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins are decent receivers, they need someone to get them the ball. It could be a real struggle for the Jets offense to put points on the board. The loss of the disruptive Abraham leaves the Jets without a premier edge rusher. THE UPSHOT: For all the skepticism that seemed to greet Eric Mangini and Mike Tannenbaum when they took over as the Jets new 1-2 punch at head coach and GM, they've appeared to do very well in restocking the Jets, especially during the draft. They could well struggle but if this offseason was entered into with an eye to the future, the Jets seem to have put things in place for success down the road.
I can already tell that the prognosticators are going to have trouble sorting out the AFC East in the pre-season. They're having issues with the Dolphins similar to the issues they had with the Jets last year. Namely that they are seriously underestimating a devastating injury to the starting QB and they're not looking hard enough at a significant unit (front seven for the Dolphins, offensive line for the Jets) that is likely to suffer a big dropoff in play this year due to aging. They're all completely schizo on the Pats, calling for them to be a dominant team in the AFC that's likely to go 10-6 (???). If you read between the lines it's clear that nobody thinks the Pats are going to blow away the league this year but they're all afraid of looking like fools so you get the 10-6/dominant routine.. They've all got the Jets right in promising rebuilding mode. They're all over the place on the Bills with half of them saying the Bills will be 7-9 and half of them predicting 3-13. I'm starting to feel like the Pats 3 championships in 4 years thing has completely befuddled the talking heads. They seem to feel like a great team has to emerge to challenge the Pats each year. That's what lead to the Jet's to the Super Bowl idiocy last year and is leading to the Dolphins fantasy this year. The truth is there is only one good team in the AFC East right now and they're not that good.
I thought for sure that you would focus on this, given comments by and towards you in other threads: I assume that you agree with this assessment? As far as the Pats go, there certainly is a bit of the Atlanta Braves thing going on here - people think that eventually some team is going to surpass them, but it doesn't seem to happen (of course, there are two very major differences between the Braves and the Pats - the Braves have been regular season good for far longer, and the Pats have been much better in the post-season).
Careful. You're projecting a bit too much and making some gross over-generalizations. Belichick has a ton of young talent (Wilfork, Ben Watson, Chad Jackson) etc. yet to be fully utilized. The Pats are a great team and organization led by the best coach and football man in the business. The Pats had the most solid draft in this division, despite picking last in the division. They did what we failed to do- add at least 3 to 4 players (Jackson, Maroney, Mills and Thomas) who can make their offense better. We all know my feelings about people over-rating the Jets draft b/c it looks like Tangini failed to add a single impact skill position player despite having a high pick in every round of this draft. Nick Saban is far superior to what we had with Hermie. His staff is light years ahead of what we have now on the sidelines as well. The Jets O-line last year was old with no depth and only one great player (Mawae). at least the Fish have Thomas and Taylor and some young talent in Channing Crowder and Matt Roth. They have tried to fortify their front seven with vets and draft picks and added Dom capers who always was a good to great DC so I'd be careful about predicting a Fish demise similar to what we went through last year. The Bills- who knows? I don't think their draft was that bad, they have some QB options, Lee Evans and McGahee are studs and Jauron has experience so in many ways I see them ahead of us.
I was with you until the Buffalo comments at the end. At the end of last year, I thought the Bills were a better team than the Jets and could fix most of their problems with a good offseason. Then Wilson fired everyone and brought in Levy--at 80 years old and no experience as a gm. He hired Jauron primarily because he got to know him in Chicago and liked him as a person (never a good reason to hire a coach) and the Bills proceeded to cut several of their quality players while going out in free agency and signing mostly backups. Their draft brought a few good players but their trading and then overreaching lost them a very valuable 2nd round pick when all was said and done. As it is, they have a left tackle in Gandy who CHICAGO (seen their offense?) ended up cutting, a mess of a qb situation, no possession receiver, no tight end and an interior D line that consists of Larry Triplett and the rookie McCargo. It's an old cliche but it's true: If you can't run the ball and you can't stop the run, you can't win. Injuries are always a huge factor but it looks right now that the division should play out as Patriots, Dolphins (whether or not they get a Wildcard depends on whether the Culpepper of 2004 or 2005 shows up), Jets and Bills. Once the Jets skill positions are upgraded in 2007 the Jets may indeed be contenders but not this year IMO as it appears that the offense will have trouble scoring points with the current group.
PATS 10-6: Look as if they have taken a step back but Belichick knows how to use players. LB corps still not vintage 2004 level but Maroney/Dillon combo steps up running game and offense with it. FINS 10-6: Saban got 8 wins out of FREROTTE and ROSENFELS: O-Line still questionable. RB combo down to one, secondary weak. The rest of the team including the front seven look good. You need a good QB to get Chambers and McMichael to succeed. Theymay now have it. JETS 7-9: Better as they go along. Front seven is decent, secondary merely adequate. They are getting old at the skills. BILLS 5-11: Is there a plan in W. New York State? Geriatric GM, never been HC could spell disaster.
I think the AFC East will look like this. Pats 10-6 or 9-7 Jets 9-7 or 8-8 or 10-6 if we are very lucky. Fins 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7 Bills- 4-12
I hate projections before camp has started. There are so many unknowns at the moment and we have no idea who the injuries are going to be this year. Generally I think the Pats are going to be the class of the division, followed by the Dolphins, Jets and Bills. I suspect the AFC East is going to have another bad record. We won 28 games last year and we did that on the merits of the teams, not some whim of nature. I would not be surprised to see three teams at .500 or worse when it's all over and the Pats at 10 wins. We missed that last year by a single game and it took a 6 game win streak by the Dolphins to avoid it. BTW, that 6 game streak was very nice for the Dolphins and their fans. They wound up with a nice 9-7 record in a rebuilding year. In 2004 another rebuilding AFC East team ran 6 in a row near the end of the season before losing the finale. They wound up 9-7 and very hopeful. The next season their coach was fired and the rebuilding was starting all over again. The Buffalo Bills. Look it up if you don't believe me.
Marty- Love the optimism but how do we win with no pass rush and pretty weak skill position players. Luck isn't even a possibility when you don't have the players.
Here's the scenario for the Jets to get to 9 or 10 wins next year: 1. Chad is healthy and able to play at his high level. 2. The young offensive linemen hit the ground running and along with Trey Teague upgrade the Jet's o-line to a strength from a weakness. 3. Curtis has one more solid Curtis type year in him. Maybe 325 carries for 1,300 yards and 1 fumble all season. 4. DeWayne Robertson actually can play nose tackle. 5. The Jet's sort out two solid linebackers to go with Vilma and Barton in the 3-4. Those 5 things all happen and the Jets could win 9 or 10 games. The odds on them all happening are REALLY low.
The Bills could go either way. All I'm saying is that I like their skill position players and their coaching staff over ours right now. They lost a lot of players but have a core (Losman, Evans and McGahee) that has valuable experience under their belts. If Losman falters they have other options at QB. Jauron wasn't great in Chicago but unlike Mangini he has a working idea of what he needs to do to prepare each week at the highest level. He also has an OC with a lot more experience than Shotty Jr. Their draft started off very shaky but in the end they got three DB's that everyone had highly rated, a DT to help stuff the run and some other useful parts. You have to kill Levy for not trading down when the Cutler and Leinart were still on the board and would have fetched a king's ransom but overall they came away with a lot of good prospects. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Bills finish ahead of the Jets.
I don't like Losman. Poor accuracy and decision making. Reminds me a bit of Browning Nagle. Holcomb is functional, and Nall is a total unknown. Bills Fans should hope Jauron is right on target with that one, as he has played in the NFC Central for years as the Lions DC and Bears HC. Evans and what else at WR? McGahee is good but bear in mind he's running behind a weak OL. I don't like their front seven although Schobel (SP?) is a good pass rusher. McCargo and Tripplett may or may not cut it. Their LB are good but they need bodyguards which they may not have. I think their corners are McGee and Clements. That's decent. They drafted Whitner who should start based on where they drafted him. Jauron wasn't bad in Chi. Seemed Angelo made good personnel decisions AFTER he left. But I still think they are a six win team AT BEST.
Agreed. I think the odds of either Chad playing at a high level or DeWayne stepping up are long at best. Let's face it- DBust was destined for failure as soon as Clodway overpaid to draft him and when Bob Jensen deemed him the next Sapp, a "bowling ball wiht knives" or whatever that idiot called him at the time. Curtis could easily struggle behind a new line and I think defenses will press Jet receivers and try to force Chad to throw long which will be a problem. I just don't see any skill position guys to scare anybody like all other teams in this division have. Next offseason and draft have to be devoted to adding speed impact players on offense.
I find it hard to predict how we'll do when we don't even know the coaching ability of Mangini. It's almost like saying he's irrelevant.
What???? We don't know if we'll match last year's win total. A Pass rush, a running game and a solid line not to mention a coaching staff that is in synch are necessary to win 8 games in this league. I don't know how some of you honeydrippers just assign 7 or 8 wins to this roster right now. Very pie in the sky thinking if you ask me.
if we win more than 6 REGULAR season games in the 2006 REGULAR season ; it will be a miracle . . . :beer:
I agree with that. The Jets will have to have alot of things go their way to have 6+ wins. They're in rebuilding mode, and it's unfair to expect a .500 season from them at this stage. Doing so will only lead to uneasiness if they don't acheive that goal, and the last thing we want is to really pour on the NY pressure on a newbie coach. The offense is crap with our QB and RB situation. We can't expect Ferguson and Mangold to be instant Pro Bowl players (OL rookies have a tendency to have mediocre/poor first years). WRs are a decent group. Coles is a good WR, but McCareins is utter crap. Cotchery might have a chance to surprise. Defense is really a crapshoot right now. It's raw and will probably need a year or two to "gel"...and this is assuming Mangini knows what he's doing.
Not to mention the Jets are pre-disastered as nearly everything that could go wrong last year did. That kind of horrible luck generally does not carry over from season to season. I see the Jets as pretty likely to win 6 games without trying too hard. It's not hard to double-vision an extra win or two in there if you squint a bit. I see the schedule as only a bit weak though. A lot of it depends on whether Culpepper plays well in Miami and how Green Bay bounces back from the disaster last year. December in Green Bay sucks.
