Blackout of Jets Games ? Will NEVER happen....here's why

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by JetsKickAss, May 14, 2010.

  1. sec314

    sec314 Well-Known Member

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    You still have not answered my question. Are you saying that they will show the game in NY with 10K empty seats? If that's you answer, I ain't buying it. You can't do that here and blackout other cities. And the NFL/Woody/ Corporations are not buying 10K seats at $200 per seat for 5 out of 8 games with the Ravens, Pats and Vikes being sold out. Nope. You are saying it won't happen, but no real solution. The NFL and Woody has backed themselves into a corner, they are screwed. The Jet are going to be short thousands and thousands of seats and there is no way around it. I think its great, the fans have spoken. At the Who sang "WE NOT GONNA TAKE IT" Meanwhile, I will be in the UD watching the home team.
     
  2. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    Games get blacked out every week now, what's the point again?
     
  3. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    Actually there is a rule currently that doesn't count unsold PSLs as empty seats...I just don't think that rule will last forever.
     
  4. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    great thread jetskickass.

    you seem like a smart dude, at least smart enough to ignore the thread nazis and share your insite with us.

    i read your post and find it very interesting, but somehow can't see the 'no black out' if the jets don't sell out 72 hours in advance of kick off.

    i am proud of our fan base for giving psl's the finger.

    psl's are a fucking rancid idea from the get go. i was up next to get season tics (paid $50/yr for the wait list) but no fucking way will i EVER bend over for a psl.

    my own drivers license is expired so that's what i think about licenses.
     
  5. Phyr

    Phyr Member

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    How are the initial sales PSLs any different than an IPO? Jets certainly have not been during down anyone that has been able to pay.
     
  6. Hennessy2710

    Hennessy2710 New Member

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    Dads got season tickets and im not always able to make it to all the games, hope it doesnt black out!
     
  7. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't matter: if they sold the PSL's as a Reg 144 (accredited investor) item, that would be totally different. They haven't.

    The Jets and all other NFL teams should tell purchasers of PSLs that they are quite likely to be AMORTIZING ASSETS -- that is, items which lose their value over the life of the PSL's rights -- therefore they're an additional cost to the per-seat ticket price per game.

    The value of PSL's is strictly based on the demand for having the rights to buy the tickets, which judging by the excess supply over demand for all sports tickets since the peak-of-the-decade HBO Real Sports special a few years ago, looks to be very minimal.
     
  8. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Listen up. I am saying this:

    I don't care HOW MANY UNSOLD PSL'S/TICKETS are involved with the Jets and Giants....Roger Goodell is not going to go for blackouts. Could he maybe allow a token blackout, in hopes of getting local companies to 'buy up' the tickets (as opposed to PSLs) each week ? Maybe....I'm sure WCBS/CBS would buy a few hundred tickets, but they're not gonna buy a few thousand. At $20,000,000 per week in TV advertising at stake (what they paid/take in), they can justify the writeoff of $10,000 - $50,000 in tickets to make sure they get the blackout lifted. They aren't going to spend millions on tickets nor tens of millions on PSL's. No way. And you won't see an entire season blacked out, even if the big market teams stunk and were on their way to 4-12 seasons.

    Do you realize the HAVOC that would ensue if the Congress yanks the anti-trust exemption ? Do you realize what that means ? If means Oakland and Kansas City and Tampa Bay all negotiate for local and national TV rights for their games. And so do the Giants and Jets and Redskins and Cowboys. How much demand outside of Tampa Bay is there for Bucs football, compared to the Giants? Cowboys ? Colts ? This was Pete Rozelle's most important decision besides the AFL-NFL merger and it would mean the end of the NFL as we know it. A few teams would see their revenue shoot up to $300-$400 MM per year, and others would see their TV revenue get cut to $50 MM a year or less (all teams now get $120 MM a year). It's baseball's situation with the Yankees vs. Kansas City all over.

    At the end of the day, the TV $$$ are more important than tickets/PSL's. Remember: the blackout rules came into existence when TV $$$ made up 10-20% of a team's revenue. Today, it's 50% -- BIG DIFFERENCE !!

    But the #1 reason it won't happen is the anti-trust exemption.
     
  9. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    (1) Games get blacked out in markets that are 1/10th to 1/20the the size of the NY market.

    (2) The markets getting blacked out have affiliates owned by individuals or companies who own 2nd-tier and 3rd-tier TV stations in smaller markets.

    (3) The New York market is home to the FLAGSHIP affiliates of the companies paying for the rights fees to the NFL and these companies OWN these stations. WCBS-2 is owned by CBS Corporation, as opposed to the CBS affiliate in Jacksonville or Tampa Bay. Do you think CBS is gonna pay billions for AFC football rights and then be told that their largest market and most lucrative TV affiliate (WCBS-2) can't air the Jets because Woody is asking for too much $$$ for PSL's ? Roger Goodell will be sending back to CBS $20 MM a week for every game blacked out.
     
  10. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Thanks.....again...read my posts. It boils down to this:

    (1) The NFL cannot have the largest TV market in the country with blackouts.

    (2) The networks paid billions for those rights. They could give a rats ass if Joe Schmoe who owns the Oakland or Jacksonville affiliates is blacked out -- they don't lose any money from that. But every network -- CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox -- owns 8 TV stations in the largest and most lucrative markets, including the New York stations. They are NOT going to have them airing infomercials on football Sundays. Not unless Goodell wants to rebate them $20 MM per week per blackout.

    (3) Congress will yank the anti-trust exemption. This undoes the ability to negotiate for all 32 teams under one umbrella. It means Snyder and Jones can sell their teams rights solo. It's the end of revenue sharing and the end of Pete Rozelle's-Wellington Maras Grand Experiment. Goodell would NEVER let that happen -- remember, he folded on the Pats-Giants Week 17 game in 2007, do you think he would blackout an entire season of Jets game ?? NFW !!
     
  11. Section 336

    Section 336 Well-Known Member

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    While I agree the Jets games will not get blacked out - I respectfully disagree with your reasoning.

    Regardless of the Jets are on in the NY market, the tv networks will not lose a dime. It is not like they will be airing a Billy Mays informercial rerun. They will still be airing NFL games with teams like the Colts, Pats, Cowboys in the slot instead. SOme of those teams have as many fans in the NY area as the Jet Fans. Most of the Giant fans would love to not have to watch the Jets everyweek anyway.

    The reason they will not get blackked out is because the Jets will not have 7,000 empty seats a game. They will get the tickets sold one way or another, they do not have to sell the PSL to sell the seat. They can sell them in 1/2 seasons, 4 packs and individual games. They could even package a key matchup with a crappy game (Bills) and sell it a special buy 1 get second half off etc. Most games would sellout pretty quickly if and when the tickets start gettng sold on ticketmaster. (Any ticket with a face under $200 would be instantly - club make take a little time)

    The Carolina Panthers still have not sold out their PSL's from the teams inception but still had 80 something straight sellouts.
     
  12. dthomas53

    dthomas53 New Member

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    Great thread, JKA. I'm not incredibly knowledgeable on the legal/financial specifics, but your points make sense.

    There is no NFL team, except maybe the Giants, that has more fans in the NY area than the Jets. That's just ridiculous.
     
  13. Jets42long

    Jets42long Member

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    Not to mention I'm pretty sure all the other small markets that have been blacked out had all tickets open for individual game sales. That is not the case here. If the tickets were open on a game to game basis the season would be sold out in a few hours. This takes away the other city's right to bitch about their blackouts.
     
  14. Barry the Baptist

    Barry the Baptist Hello son, would you like a lolly?
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    That's not true, I lived in Phoenix in the days of Sun Devil Stadium being the home of the Cardinals and they never sold out. (Except the Cowboys) or if another big name team came into town but all you would get was a blue screen with some sort of message that says Due to NFL regulations this game has been blacked out.

    Intead of the blue screen you'd now be getting some dam British guy trying to sell you an amazing car wax that makes your 84 Plymouth look brand new.
     
  15. greenbeanz

    greenbeanz Well-Known Member

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    What you say makes total sense. (and btw this is a great thread). However, i went and found the Jets PSL agreement online (its on their website), and the way it is worded makes it very clear that the jets can "transfer" the license to the person you want. it makes it clear that what you are buying is, in essence, a lease agreement for the seats in the stadium. its written moreso in the manner of a real estate contract.

    this is the language from the agreement. section 7 is where it states clearly that it is not an investment.

     
  16. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Hey, that's what the internet and these message boards are all about, right ?? :D

    Good analysis, wrong end-result. There will be games aired and they will not lose all the ad revenue but they will suffer a HUGE hit. You're not saying that out-of-town football will draw anywhere near what the Jets (or Giants) would draw, are you ? Plus, the local affiliates get the games FREE as part of their deal with the parent company; there are auxilary rights for out-of-town games (or used to, not sure if they are currently).

    Bottom Line: They lose BIG if they can't air the Jets (or Fox can't air the Giants) in the NY market, regardless of the replacement game. Ratings would fall by at least half.

    But the Panthers sell the individual tickets without the PSL; Woody explicitly said the Jets WOULD NOT do that. He may do a 180 on that but for now, he said no PSL sale, no ticket sale.
     
  17. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Exactly....maybe the Cowboys (and Redskins) have fans here because of the old NFL/NFC Giants connection....Pittsburgh and maybe even Buffalo (New York State connection) also do OK. But any AFC replacement games would be suffering a ratings collapse. Watch the ratings this fall for double-headers before/after the Jets game, the numbers will fall off HUGE.
     
  18. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    That would have been an improvement over what I saw from the Jets on TV in years like 1977, 1980, 1984, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 2007.
     
  19. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Good catch. Send that link to 280 Park Avenue and Roger Goodell...he keeps saying IN PUBLIC that PSL's are 'great investments.'

    The Jets and other teams appear to have covered themselves legally but the NFL is clearly extrapolating from the very early PSLs sold to cities that didn't have all the sports teams New York does. Those PSLs often sold at big premiums in the re-sale market. Hasn't been that way since. But Goodell keeps saying they are 'good investments' because if they can't be sold for what you paid or are an amortizing asset then the per-seat cost of a ticket rises that much more.

    The $20,000 PSL with the $700 ticket price (do I have it matched up correctly ??) -- it's like another $80 on the price of each ticket over 30 years. And when you consider you have to put the money all up front and take into account the time value of money, it's really an additional $150-$200 per ticket per game.
     
  20. greenbeanz

    greenbeanz Well-Known Member

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    goodell definitely needs to watch what hes saying bc even that can get him in trouble. and the psl does not have to be paid up front. it can be spread out over as many as 15 years. (with interest of course). it cannot, however, be transfered until it is paid in full.
     

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