Jets @ Colts Predictions

Why are you hanging your hat on a loss in the regular season that you could have won if the Colts didn't lie down like dogs? Where is the honor in that position. The Colts decided to piss on their paying fans with an exhibition game at full price because they weren't confident in their ability to be ready for the playoffs any other way.

Even if you assume the Colts win the regular season game. The entire country knows how good the Colts are in the regular season and how average they are in the playoffs.

Your argument simply lacks cred.

 

I've been a huge Yankee fan for a long long time. I can't tell you how many Mantle & Maris cards I had (still wish I had them). I had never been to NY or Yankee stadium until two years ago. As a birthday gift, my sons took me to NY for a game in the final season at the original Yankee stadium. Very nice experience. NYC is great. I'll be back so my wife can say she had the experience as well.

Indians aren't the Yankess or Yankee stadium, but Victory field is very nice. It looks a lot like Camden yards. It's been voted the best minor league ballpark over and over.

Hope your new stadium is as nice as LOS.

 

This isn't about honor. I'm simply pointing out a fact. As a season ticket holder, I was just as pissed as anyone when they pulled the starters. Yes, there have been some poor playoff performance in the past, no doubt. What you overlooked, is that the "one and dones" came mostly after a bye week for the Colts. It didn't happen this year, they beat the Ravens. The mental makeup of this team is clearly different from previous teams. You can tell it by their play (& come from behind wins) and the comments you heard and read.

 

Here's a fact your coaching staff didn't believe your team was good enough to go for an undefeated season and make a run through the playoffs. They sacrificed the perfect season for the run through the playoffs. They may have been wrong on both counts?

 

I'm not hanging my hat on one game. All of you guys have continued to say the Jets will simply march up and down the field running the ball and the Colts D won't be able to stop them. While the previous game won't have any bearing on who wins this week, it's our only true point of reference. I'm simply stating that I like our D more than you guys give them credit for.

The Colts did not play Mathis, Session or Powers all starters on D in the first game. Freeney was on a snap count and the starters were pulled in the 3rd quarter. Up until that point, the Jets offense hadn't done much. Now you can say that Ryan makes good halftime adjustments, but I will counter with some points as well. Where was the adjustment when Manning led the Colts on a scoring drive in their first possesion of the second half. Second, if the Jets fall behind by 8 or more during the first half, they better start making adjustments before the second half. You guys do realize the Colts make adjustment as well don't you?

Did you talk to Caldwell about not being able to win out? So far the strategy has worked. The Ravens went down, the Colts are rested and fresh and injuries are at a minimum. Not that I agreed with resting players, but it is what it is.

 

Jets 20
Colts 14

Colts fans hate Matt Stover forever as he goes 0-3 on FGs. Opposing kickers go 0-8 combined on FGs in this years playoffs :lol:

 

Much like the Chargers game, a major factor will be how well the Jets contain the receivers Revis is not guarding.

I think Gates took some big chunks out of the Jet D, and Clarke is better than Gates. Still, players like Leonhard and, uh, um, Rhodes (ahem) stood up, and in the end, particularly with the two interceptions, played their passing attack to a draw at worst.

If the Jets can do that again and run the ball again, keep turnovers down, they will win.

Part of the thinking is that the Colts will not get much out of a homefield advantage. One of the things I love most about this particular Jet team is they seem impervious to the downside of playing on the road. If anything it fires them up. I almost sense they get something special out of taking the air out of their opponent in front of their opponent's fans.

Another factor I don't really know is whether the Colts will do as poorly as the Chargers holding up to the physical punishment of playing the Jets. Unless they can do that, which I also kind of doubt, they will suffer the same result.

Ftr I was very nervous before the Charger game started, and it really wasn't in the bag until the Jets converted that fourth and 1. I am not going to be any less nervous on Sunday.

But the Jets have just shown they can take down a team with a high powered offense in their opponent's home stadium. That's a good thing.

 

What did our O do in the first half against the Chargers? When Manning went out we were closer in the second half than we were against the Chargers when our O was doing nothing. When you pound on defenses with a big OL and a big back they wear down. If you can hang around against a tired D that's pulled up big plays start to happen. Hanging your hat on taking the D off the field when they were fresh is simply grasping at straws.

 

Very good post with a lot of great points. Clark is faster than most people realize and is one reason he gets open a lot. If the LB's can't stay with him, it will be a problem.

I can relate to the HFA thought. That's exactly how the Colts have played on the road for the last 7-8 years. I actually like watching them on the road more than at home. I think they focus better.

Jets have to minimize TO's for sure.

A lot of people disagree, but I think the Colts D will hold up against the run better than the Chargers. They have contained Jones-Drew, Rice & Johnson twice this year. I get the Jets O line is probably the best in the league at running the ball, but the Ravens isn't a slouch and neither were the Jags or Titans. Their games are predicated on running the ball. Caldwell's first priority this year was getting bigger at DT and it has paid dividends.

 

On both sides of the ball I thought the Chargers played more conservative than the Colts will. The Colts D is better and faster than San Diego's. Sanchez is going to have to throw the more at times when he has too versus when he wants to and that will be the difference. If you are hanging your hat on simply being able to run the ball the entire game, then possibly you're grasping at straws.

 

SD wasn't conservative at all they tried everything from play action, screens, deep passes, different targets, they threw the kitchen sink at us.

There is nothing that indicates the Colts have a better D than the Chargers. Everything points to just the opposite.

 

I heard this from multiple coaches on the tube about SD being very conservatiove. They were relying too much on LT to carry them and he isn't what he used to be. I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I doubt this article will change your mind about Indy's D, but read on.

Written by Deshawn Zombie
Tuesday, 19 January 2010 06:43
The New York Jets are in trouble.

As everyone knows, they try to control what Mark Sanchez does and put him in positions to make big, but safe plays.

The Jets have scored 38 offensive touchdowns this season (including the playoffs). 11 of them have come from 29 yards out or more. That's nearly 30% of their total touchdowns. In the playoffs, that ratio has sky rocketed. 3 of the Jets 5 playoff touchdowns have come on plays of at least 39 yards. It's clear that though the Jets are a run heavy team, they depend on big plays to take the pressure off Sanchez. When a team has a young quarterback, they know that long 10 or 15 play drives are going to be hard to come by. They seek to exploit mistakes in coverage and set up big plays. They know they can't afford the long brutal drives because they inevitably lead to multiple third downs where the quarter back HAS to make a play. It is a critical factor in Jets wins. On the season they have scored a long touchdown in 6 of their 11 wins. The only teams they've beaten without a big play for a score were Buffalo, Tennessee, Carolina, Indianapolis (though they did have a kick return and a fumble returned for scores), and the Pats early in the season.

Now here's the bad news for the Jets:

The Colts don't allow big play touchdowns. Or big plays of any kind, really.

On the season, the Colts have allowed just 29 touchdowns. Of those, just four were longer than 17 yards, and two of those (21 and 41 yard passes by the Bills) came in the final game with backups playing in a snow storm. Other than that, Indy allowed just two legitimate long scores on the season. One was the 64 yard run by Frank Gore where two players ran into each other, and the other was a 63 yard pass from Brady to Moss. You'll have that every once in a while.

As for big plays of any type, the Colts allowed the fewest passing plays of 20 yards or more in the league with 27 (four fewer than the Jets). They were 8th in plays of 40+ yards, but if you take out the ball Owens caught in week 17, they jump to 5th. They allowed the 10th fewest runs of 20 yards or more (9), but allowed four of those in the final 2 1/2 quarters against the Bills. 5 runs of that length would have lead the NFL. They allowed only one run of 40+ yards this year, the Gore TD.

The simple fact is that this matchup is a nightmare for the Jets offense. The Colts are going to take away the big from the Jets, which means that they'll have to score in other ways. One is obviously special teams. Unfortunately for the Jets, they have only one such score on the season. Granted it did come against the Colts, but it was moments after the players had been informed the starters would be sitting in the second half. That return is also the only one the Colts have given up this season. While it could happen again, the odds would certainly seem to be against it.

So if they can't get big plays and can't count on returns, the Jets will have to lean on their defense to create turnovers and scoring opportunities for the offense.

Ah, but there's the rub. The Colts defense has been ridiculous at keeping other teams out of the end zone after turnovers. Only twice this season has an opponent converted an Indy turnover into a touchdown. The first was at Jacksonville and the second was the Painter fumble that the Jets scored on. If the plan is to create short fields for the offense, it could work, but is seems unlikely those fields will result in touchdowns.

So all that's left to the Jets is to hope for long drives that will end with excellent red zone execution. The problem is that the Jets are just 18th in the league in converting red zone chances for touchdowns at 50%. The Colts defense is 9th in the league at 47%. So that means any red zone opportunity for the Jets will be a coin flip proposition at best.

Let's assume for a moment that the Colts managed to score 17-20 points. That's a safe guess based on the previous matchup. Frankly, I think it's low, but we'll give it to the Jets as their best case scenario. They've allowed 14 points each of their last two games, but both featured multiple missed field goals, and the odds of Indy missing more than one on Sunday are low. My question is how are the Jets going to get the 21 points they'll likely need to win this game? Where are they going to come from?

Finally I'll leave you all with this stat:

The 2009 Jets are 1-6 when allowing at least 16 points in a game. They are 0-5 when allowing 18 points or more

 

Enjoy all those FGs!

 

SD threw the ball 40 times last week. 40, 40, 40. They didn't play conservatively they ran the ball 18 times that is more than a 2 to 1 ratio.

The Jets ran the ball 39 times and passed is 23 that's conservative football.

The Miami Dolphins ran the ball down your throat this year and destroyed you in TOP. You won the game coming from behind going against two rookie CB's playing in their second NFL game.

 

I pointed that out in one of my first posts earlier this week but it seemed to go in one ear and out the other. All I heard in response was "RUN THE BALL! Colts have TERRIBLE run D!"

Mmmmk... I don't know anything about the Colts, right?

You wanna beat our D, you aren't going to get it done by playing the run like you did against the Chargers. Gary Brackett and Larry Coyer will sniff that out with ease.

You wanna beat our defense? You have to pass on the safety that is giving your receivers too much cushion. Maybe you'll see it. Maybe you won't. We'll see on Sunday.

 

We can definetly pass on the Colts but I don't see us doing it unless the game gets out of hand early. Indoors in that environment they are going to want to keep Sanchez under wraps as long as possible.