My week 16 power rankings, pre-Playoff version

1. Minn - No real weaknesses. Strong at scoring, 3rd down, few turnovers. Strong rush defense and lead the league in sacks.

2. GB - Minnesota without a punter.

3. NE - Strong passing attack with few turnovers. Poor punting. Allows few points

4. NO - Highest scoring team with a strong passing attack, good on 3rd down. Poor punting. Tied for the lead in takeaways.

5. Dal - Good passing attack with few takeaways. Defense allows few points and does well stopping the run.

6. Phi - High scoring offense based on a decent passing attack. Good return game. High number of takeaways and sacks.

7. Bal - Decent balanced offense. Balanced defense allows 2nd fewest points.

8. SanD - Strong passing offense that scores alot and has few turnovers. Rushing game is poor. Defense is average.

9. Ind - Similar to SanDiego's offense with more passing and less rushing. Return game is weak. Average defense that allows a below average number of points scored.

10. NYJ - Leads the league in rushing, otherwise subpar offense with a poor passing game. Fewest passing yards allowed (by far) with an above average rushing defense that allows the fewest points in the league.

11. Cin - Above average rushing game with a below average passing game. Strong rushing defense that allows few points.

16. Ari - Mini San Diego offense with too many turnovers. Strong punting game. Defense is average with a strong number of sacks.


Summary:
Jets and Cincy are the only teams on the list with a weak passing game. Houston is the only team with a strong passing game not in the playoffs as of today.

4 teams have below average or worse rushing games. Tenn, Carolina and Miami all have strong rushing games, none seem will probably make the playoffs.

Arizona and the Jets have lots of giveaways. Low numbers of giveaways correlate highly with getting in the playoffs. Surprise!

Strong teams seem to have weak punting games. Weird.

Philly has the best return game of the lot.

Arizona is the only team with above average points allowed.

Rushing defenses tend to be above average. I think this is due to the fact that these teams have led more than they've been behind forcing their opponents to throw.

4 teams (Minn, NO, Dal and Ari) allow an above average number of passing yards.

Takeaways correlates poorly with making the playoffs.

If the Jets can get by Cincy and stop turning the ball over I like their matchups.

 

Indy has the worst rushing game in the league, their return game stinks and the defense is average. Its just the way they score out.

San Diego is Indianapolis without Manning.

I had to say something bad about NO. They have a very good team.

 

One of the biggest flaws with my system is that it doesn't adjust for recent performance and treats game 1 just like game 16. As a result the stats that Minnesota has piled up will probably carry them to a #1 rating at the end of the season even if they coast a bit in December.

Minnesota has a below average punting game, it is just that GB has the worst punting game in the league.

I rate teams based on how balanced they are. The theory being that a playoff caliber team can take away one of the facets of an opponents game or exploit an opponent's defense's weakness.

Indy and San Diego have been pure passing teams this year. Indy has put up the fewest rushing yards per game and San Diego has put up the 4th fewest. If an opponent can take away the pass, or even blunt it significantly these teams are in trouble.

Manning makes the Dolts a special case. He really does appear to be good enough to carry the team. However Indy reminds me of the early Elway Broncos. Good enough to make the Super Bowl but a rough time winning it.

NE has a very well balanced performance this year. They are very good at scoring, passing, third down conversions and have very few giveaways. Their rushing game is above average. All-in-all a strong offense. Their defense is tied for the 3rd fewest points allowed, after the Jets and Baltimore. They are good against the run and the pass with a decent numer of takeaways. Their biggest weaknesses are sacks and, again, punting. With an offense like theirs, poor punting is probably not going to hurt them much. Put all of that together and they rate higher than SD or Indy.

San Diego's defense is solidly middle of the league, against the AFC West. Indy's defense is tied with NE for points allowed but gives up alot of yardage.

To move SD and Indy to 2nd and third would also put them above NO, Dal, and Philly.

NO has the highest scoring passing offense with a good rushing game paired with an average defense that takes the ball away at a high rate. Dallas has a good offense matched with a good defense. Philly is the San Diego of the NFC but with a slightly better ground game and a good defense. All three of these teams are more balanced.

Then there is Baltimore. Above average in every offensive category matched with a top 3 defense. If they could stop the stupid penalties they might actually win a few more games. This team has had the biggest waste of a season if they lose early in the playoffs or even fail to make it. If I'm the Raiduhs I do everything I can this week to piss them off to cause them to make stupid penalties. Should be a bloody game.

 

Hrm, the patsies were 18-0 at one point. Did that mean they were Super Bowl champs?

p.s. If they had won this past week I'd have them at 7th, just based upon the change in record.

 

Apparantly.

edit: Meh, if the Dolts had won they would have had better stats from the game and would have risen even more in the rankings.

Again, the problem I have with Indy is their league worst ground game and average defense.

 

I don't even know what that means.