Saw this posted at another site. This is a ranking system that might be considered somewhat similar (although still very different) to the NFL QB rating system. It ranks rookie QB's in the NFL in the 22 to 23 year old age bracket, based on this formula: ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/UmtAj It is just one way to measure a Rookie QB, but a reasonably good one. While Sanchez does rank pretty low, (54th out of 81) he does have a few other QB's ranked behind him that worked out pretty well. On the other hand, the farther down the list goes, the higher the percentage of NFL busts there are. Using this measuring system (which does not include fumbles which would lower Sanchez's ranking further) it does show that Sanchez on the whole has had a poor rookie season when compared to other rookie QB's in the NFL since 1970. Having a good ranking in this system doesn't mean a QB will be successful in the NFL, (note Majkowski ranked at 6th) but the number of NFL busts certainly goes up as one goes down the list and conversley, the percentage of quality NFL QB's is higher overall for those players with better rankings. I think the biggest fault with this ranking is that it does not account for a rookie QB's O line, if the team had a good running attack, or if the player had a good WR/TE corp. Like any ranking system it has some faults, but an interesting comparison none the less.
Here is another sorted ranking, based on this formula: NY/A - net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/LadDg Using this tool, Sanchez's ranking looks much better. 26th puts him in pretty good company.
That's a strange listing and I'm not sure what to make of it. 1-20 has the most serviceable QB's with some great QB's too. There aren't any great QB's on the list from 21-40 but there are a handful in the 41-80 range. There are more great QB's in the 61-80 range than the 41-60 though. I'm gonna go ahead and say that this list doesn't mean much to me.
In that first ranking system, INT's really drop a QB's ranking. It is a system that adds yards for TD's and subtracts yards for INT's. Then it also figures in yards as well. The second one ignores INT's, and Sanchez's ranking goes up quite a bit. Both systems ignore fumbles. One thing to remember is that for the most part, high first round QB's usually play for some very bad teams. Aikman, Stafford for instance. Flacco and Ryan, along with Sanchez play(ed) for decent teams, with decent defenses. When Sanchez is compared to rookie QB's in similar situations like Flacco and Ryan, his numbers are not promising. Having said that, it's all about the turnovers. That is what is killing the Jets and Sanchez. When Sanchez turns the ball over two or fewer times, the Jets have a winning record with him under center. That is the good news. I also think that the mistakes he so often makes that result in turn overs are, or should be correctable.
I think Schottenhiemer gets far too much blame for Sanchez's failings. Sure, I think he's made mistakes, but he isn't throwing the ball either. Can Schotty be blamed for Sanchez's poor ball security? Or holding the ball too long? Or failing to throw the ball away? The Jets run more than almost any other team in the NFL. Most rookie QB's are on lousy teams and alway play from behind. Sanchez does not have that excuse. Even Ryan commented on how he thought Sanchez had worked on and improved his ball security problems, only to regress in that department. Could Schottenheimer be doing a better job? No doubt about that. Is he THE reason Sanchez has strugled so mightily? I don't think so. He should get some blame, but certainly not all of it. I DO however have a HUGE problem with Schottenheimer, and it has nothing to do with play calling. Why don't we EVER see either Schott or Callahan EVER coaching Sanchez up on the sidelines? Why don't we see Sanchez talking to his WR's and coaches on the sidelines? He is left alone to sulk after he makes mistakes. That is inexcusable IMO. I do think Sanchez is being mishandled, but not so much the play calling, which could be much better. He isn't being coached. That has to fall at Ryan's feet. It's his team, bottom line.
I actually have a problem with the play designs themselves. When I see other teams run their routes, their WR's don't wind up 2 yards from each other all the time. They attack the zones in coverage. Here's my main issue. When Ryan got here, he said we weren't going to be intimidated by anyone, and I honestly believe our defense believes that. For the most part, we dictate what the other team's offense can do. On offense, Schotty has just always appears to coach scared. The opponent's D always dictate what we do, especially the Pats. He always coaches scared against them and that's the main reason I want him gone.
The big problem with ANY numbers based ranking system is that that ignore so many other important variables. The supporting cast (players and coaches) or the offensive system never gets accounted for in either college or pro numbers based evaluations. Having said that, I do think it interesting to look at them. At best, some trends seem to hold, but every QB and his situation is different, and any individual can break through the "odds" that some trends would seem to indicate. What I took from these rankings? Sanchez has the skills. He lacks experience (I think Pete Carrol was right) but he is hurt by bad decision making. Look at Cutler. He threw too many INT's at Denver, took too many chances and made some bad decisions. However, in that system he could make the big play on the flip side. He was a dangerous QB to face and could strike from any part of the field. In Chicago, he's been just awful. The INT's are still there, but the big plays aren't and neither are the TD psses. I think this does make a case for the sytem and the play calling to garner some blame. On the other hand, I think a good NFL QB should be able to adjust to specific systems, IF he has the mental makeup and skill set needed. By "mental makeup", I don't mean a Wunderlik score, I mean leadership and mental toughness. We won't know about Sanchez for some time to come. I am skeptical, but skeptisism is reasonable for any high draft pick college QB. I thought Ryan Leaf would be very good. Same for Cutler. Leinart too. Even Pennington never got any good at ball security. Who knew Brees would ever be this good? Or David Carr so bad? QB's in the draft are a crapshoot, as the article Badger on LSD's article points out. No ranking system can predict how good a QB might be, but it does show trends.
Which makes it worse considering he is now learning the "Pro Game" frm a Rookie HC and an OC who knows dick about grooming a QB!
There is? To me, it just looks like they went back far enough to include Manning and Leaf. And why the cutoff at 20? Why not 15? Do you think including Quinn, Russell, Grossman and VY to the strong possibility to succeed list would give this equation more credibility?
I agree that some of the things in that article seem tailored to make the results of the formula look better.
How many QB's on that list had all of the following things true as of their first start? 1. Only 1 NFL caliber receiver on the roster, that being Jerrico Cotchery. 2. A turnstile in pass protection at LG, that being Alan Faneca. 3. An offensive coordinator renowned primarily for his edgy, complex misdirection schemes designed to keep the opposing defense off balance, that being Brian Schottenheimer. 4. A rookie head coach who 10 games later would admit that he had not spoken to the rookie QB about something as fundamental as ball protection, leaving that chore to the offensive coordinator who also was renowned for how often his QB's threw picks? That being Rex Ryan. How many of the QB's on the list lost the only NFL caliber receiver on the roster by game 6, and saw his replacement be a drop prone receiver widely viewed to regard his own game as more important than the result his teams achieved? I think Sanchez has had a rocky year but I also think that just about everything that could be stacked against him has been stacked against him a lot of the way and he's still held up, looking quite good in a few games to go along with all the misadventures. I'm still very happy that he's the Jet's QB at this point, given that I would be on the verge of tuning out for the year at this point if just about anybody else was playing QB and the team was playing this poorly. And I only see 1 game in the bunch that we would have won with a different QB in and we'd have lost that 1 also if Schotty made the same lousy calls he did.
This prompted me to do a little research, so I compiled the stats of all the Jets QBs under Schotty. Just for the hell of it. 1106/1789 for 11,908 yards 6.65 y/a 61.8% 64 TDs 74 INTs Passer rating: 76.0 The only QB in the system that had more TDs than INTs was Chad.
