Draft Review (long)

There are two parts to the draft. Whether the player is good or bad and second the value you get for the pick. You may have great scouting but even good picks often turn out bad. It is often luck. Getting value for picks involves where you take the player. Whether its early and poor value or after the player has dropped and is good value for the pick. We cannot evaluate today whether the picks will be good or bad but we can evaluate whether we got value for our picks.

Lets look at three of best drafting teams. The Patriots, Eagles and Steelers. These teams rarely if ever reach for a player. All their picks may not succeed but they get good value for picks. They target many players but they don’t jump up and take them early. Rather they wait until one drops. If the player they have targeted is taken early to bad let the other team get bad or average value for that pick. They may trade up for a pick like the Eagles did with Justice, Patriots did with Chad Jackson or the Steelers did with Holmes. But they only do this to get good or exceptional value.

Look at the Eagles picks in rounds 1-5, Bunkley, Justice Gocong (the pick they stole from the Jets at 71), Giles, Avant, Bloom, and Gaither. They got great and exceptional value for each and every pick.

People often argue the team knows more than the so called experts but generally the so called experts are dead on where they project players. The patriots, Eagles, and Steelers almost always get good value for each pick according to those so called experts. It’s the teams that deviate from the experts that have problems. It’s a philosophy of maximizing the value of each pick. Think of a pick as a dollar bill, The Eagles, Patriots, and Steelers take that dollar bill and stretch it until it nalmost breaks. They don’t take 7th round talent in the 3rd round. Rather they take 1st and 2nd round talent in the 3rd round.

The Jets in this draft have seemed to taken the opposite philosophy of crumpling up that dollar and bill and not using its full value. Rather than targeting multiple players they seem to have set their eyes on a few must have players who they will take at all cost. Rounds early. They are the one team that has deviated from the experts the most in this draft. The team that has consistently taken players that are poor value for their picks.

Overall I love D’Brick and Mangold. I am excited about Clemens. But from rounds three on we wasted the potential of our picks. We had a great opportunity to make our football team better and we did very bad.

The first two picks were easy picks. The Clemens pick is debatable. He was rated a 3rd to 4th round pick by most people. Most likely he would have been there at our 3rd pick. There were plenty of other good QB’s that would have been available to us in the 3rd and 4th rounds. We didn’t need to get poor value for a 2nd pick and put all our eggs in one basket. We could have waited for better value. If he was there at three great if not pick another QB who would good value. That is how you maximize the value of your picks.

Clemens by itself does not bother me rather if we made just oen reach for Clemens I would be very happy with that pick. It’s the Clemens pick in the aggregate that bothers me where every pick is poor value. I have no problem with one reach but doing so on every pick is poor business philosophy. Essentially it is playing the lottery on every pick. Yes you might win a longshot every once in awhile but by taking poor value on each pick you stack the odds against yourself. What makes the Patroits, Eagles and Steelers philosophy work is the long run. They make solid good bets, By stretching their picks they shorten the odds on each pick. In the long run getting good value means a better football team.

What the Jets appeared to have done the last two days was to target only a few players and do whatever they have to do get those players rather than targeting many players and hoping for good value. They either did not have the patience to get good value for their picks or they just fell in love with specific players and overvalued them. Either way it’s a recipe that will ruin the franchise in the long term.

Here is my short review of each pick.

1. D'Brick I have no problem with D’Brick. He was the best and easiest choice. I love that the FO didn’t need feel the need to make a splash to move up to get Bush. Rather than overpaying we got a very solid polayer who will hopefully play 60 plays a game for the next 10 years. Its hard to get better value than that. Look at effect the Marvin Powell and Chris ward selections had on the Jets franchise. They were the building blocks that led to a successful 10 year span.

2. Mangold was projected between 25 and 35. There was so much talent there he might have been there at 35. On the other hand the saints might have taken him. I have no problem with him he is as close to a sure thing as we can find in a draft pick. You can almost be assured he will start for 10 years. Its hard to find a draft pick in any round that is that safe.

3. Clemens was a 3rd to 4th round talent taken early. Most likely he would have been there in the third round. He was a reach. I have no problem with one reach but every pick shows a problem. Get value for your pick if someone wants to reach and not get value let them waste their pick on Clemens there will be plenty of quality QB's available in the 3rd and 4th round. My point is don't put all your eggs in one basket where you have to reach. Rather do what the Patriots, Steelers and Eagles do and maximize the value of your picks and take players that have dropped not early. They target multiple players and do not become blinded by a need to have them on their team. They wait until someone they want is available for good value. If someone else wants to take him on the second round just don’t let pne team overpaying dictate what kind of value you get with your draft picks.

4. Shlegal a 6th to 7th round grade. We would have been better passing on this pick and just picking him in the 6th round where his contract value would have been less.

5. Eric Smith See Shlegal just worse. Another wasted pick.

6. Brad Smith Now we have 4 possession WR's rather than 3. Except the 4th is a project. While I like Brad Smith I just don't like him on the Jets. He does not fit. We have need of a burner not another possession WR.

7. Washington He fits in as the 3rd down change of pace speed back. He will take Blaylock's role meaning goodbye Blaylock. I again don't see the need. We could have drafted a football player that could have competed for a job.

8. Pociask Another reach. A back-up TE projected not to be drafted at all. If he can play fullback at least the pick makes sense. But there were plenty of players out there that could compete for jobs on this team rather than a player like Pociask who is projected as a career special teams player like Eric Smith, Coleman and Shlegal.

9. Coleman We certainly need CB depth. Not projected to be drafted. But taking such a player in the 6th round is not such a reach. But again like other picks not much value for the pick and we will have to pay more in a signing bonus for him by overdrafting him.

10. Titus Hard to argue with a 7th round pick. He looks like he has potential if he can hit the weights.



The 2 big trades:

1. Washington
The trade was even in draft chart value. But it was a good job finding a trade.

Number 35 = 550

Number 53 = 370
Number 189 = 16
2nd round pick for value is equal to one round later = 85th pick =165

2. Philadelphia

Terrible Value. A 7th round pick for moving 5 spots from 71 to 76. We should have gotten a late 5th or early 6th round pick or a late 6th and 7th. It is fairly obvious this trade was a desperate attempt by the FO to move down because they had only one player targeted, Shlegal and they knew 71 was way to early. Unfortunately, they could not find anyone to move even further down.

Overall: The Jets have not had a draft this bad since Mike Hickey was president. Hickey specialized in targeting players many rounds to early. The heck with getting good value. The new FO seems to have the same philosophy. Many people may remember this draft because of the contributions of D’Brick and Ferguson. Unfortunately I will rmemeber for wasting the potential of the rest of our picks on carre back ups and special team players. The media will probably not look past round two when they grade this draft. The first 2 rounds are the easy part. 95% of the member sof this board could make those picks. The real difficulty and skill comes in managing your picks when you reach the more grey are of rounds three and up. It was in managing these picks and using them appropriately for good value is where the Jets have failed miserably in this draft. One or two reaches is not a bad thing nor is being in love with a player or two. But when you do that on every pick it is a recipe for franchise ruin. This draft was an opportunity to greatly improve this team not only next year but for many years to come. The FO for whatever reason wasted that opportunity and the potential of this draft.

Either all the experts are wrong or the new FO is not ready for the job. Many people questioned whether the new regime could handle the draft without having any experienced football types in the FO or anyone with scout experience. Bradway was kept around because of his scouting experience but its fairly obvious here that he is not involved or running this draft. These young guys seem to think they know it all and we are as a franchise are paying for their mistakes and their own the job education.

Continued...

 

I don’t know the solution to the problem here, But we cannot keep having drafts like this. Tannenbaum needs to go. He won his power play with Bradway and got his chance to show what he can do. All he has shown us is that he is not ready for the job. We need a new regime with experienced football men that can hire and run a capable scouting department. Fire Tannenbaum immediately. Give Mangini a year to see how hard the players play for him. He may be young and have problems speaking but that does not mean he cannot coach. Lets give him a year and find out. If he fails we can get a real coach next year. Next time rather than hiring an inexperienced FO and HC’s on the cheap its time we finally spent some money to build this organization form the ground up. At the very least we could starting hiring a GM and HC’s who make the average league salary at their position rather than picking inexperienced people no else wants to save money.

I am sure many of you will defend the new regime no matter what they do (for at least another 6 months) and you will feel compelled to tear this post apart. I don’t care if people disagree with me. But what I would ask is keep it civil. We all share a common bond in the pain and suffering we share as Jets fans. We all want the same thing a good Jets team. We just differ in how we believe we should get there.

While I have certainly not been a fan of Tannenbaum or the Mangini hire I was very excited about this draft and I was expecting that they would do very well. I became very optimistic after the Mangold and Clemens picks. Unfortunatley, my illusions about Tangini was shattered by the reality of the rest of the draft. These players may turn out to be good players but they are still poor value. People win the lottery everyday but playing long shots and drafting poor value players will only lead this franchise into ruin. All this being said we did get some good potential players in Mangold, D’brick and Clemens. We should be excited about their impact and development.

 

No one said the picks were bad. All I said was that the picks were poor value and that the philosphy of not getting value for picks is one that will not Succeed in the long run.

 

Sorry about the confusion, my point has nothing to do with the success in the short term or in small samples but rather that if you continue to get poor value for your picks and choose longshot players your drafting and your team will suffer in the long term. Yes you may achieve a few successes in the short term but over the long haul you will suffer. Hence the value to a franchise in following the draft philopshy shared by teams like Phildadelphia, New England and Pittsburgh.