http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/football-outsiders-pessimistic-on-jets/ July 14, 2009, 3:10 pm Football Outsiders Pessimistic on Jets By Mike Tanier (Mike Tanier is a Fifth Down contributor and a co-author of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, which is available in print and as a download at FootballOutsiders.com. It contains more than 400 pages of in-depth N.F.L. and college football analysis, statistics, and player and team projections.) The Jets may have Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, and a rookie quarterback, but don?t expect them to turn into the 2008 Ravens. The Ravens reached the A.F.C. championship game last year with Ryan as their defensive coordinator, Scott as one of their starting linebackers and rookie Joe Flacco under center. Ryan is now the Jets? coach and Scott a key part of the defense, and the top draft pick Matt Sanchez appears to be an N.F.L.-ready quarterback. But Football Outsiders Almanac has a pessimistic prediction for the Jets: they?re far more likely to lose six or more games (56% chance, according to our simulations) than to win nine or more (18% chance). Why such a gloomy forecast? Brett Favre may have been on his last legs last year (particularly in December), but he still played better than all but the best rookie quarterbacks in history. Last season was the year of the rookie coach-quarterback combo, with both the Ravens and Falcons shocking the league with playoff runs, but it?s still rare for a team to leap into contention with novices calling both the plays and the signals. But the biggest reason for pessimism: the Jets just weren?t very good last year. Their won-loss record was inflated by an easy slate of opponents from the A.F.C. West and N.F.C. West. At Football Outsiders, we use DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to evaluate every play by every team in a season, creating a high-accuracy power ranking. Even at their best, the Jets only earned a 13.2% rating, 10th in the N.F.L. before their December slide. By contrast, the Giants got as high as 41.5%. Jets fans know they could be in for a long season, but it will be worth it if Sanchez develops and Ryan proves he?s a legitimate head coach. Our Lewin Career Forecast, a formula that gauges a rookie quarterback?s long-range potential, gives Sanchez a mixed review. No first-round quarterback in the last 12 years started fewer college games than Sanchez, and the list of players with similar college profiles includes busts like Akili Smith, Tim Couch and Alex Smith. Still, our scouts like Sanchez, and he?ll be helped by Brian Schottenheimer?s short passing offense, which infuriates fans but makes life easier for quarterbacks. The average Jets first down pass traveled just 7.9 yards in the air last year, 29th in the league; the average third-down pass went just 5.5 yards in the air (roughly across your kitchen), 24th in the league. Throws that short will keep a rookie out of trouble. As for Ryan, his defense will be nothing like Mangini?s. Mangini rushed just three defenders more than any other coach in the league (24.1% of pass plays), but Ryan learned the 46 defense at the feet of his father, Buddy Ryan, and he loves to bring the blitz. Ryan doesn?t have Ray Lewis or Ed Reed to work with in New York, but he has some building blocks, including Darrelle Revis and Dwight Lowery, bookend cornerbacks who can handle man coverage while linebackers and safeties attack the quarterback. This year?s Jets will disappoint some fans, but it will be worth it if they make a commitment to long-range planning. Last year?s veteran experiment ? featuring not just Favre but guard Alan Faneca, tackle Damien Woody, and others ? was an attempt to fast-forward through the rebuilding process. Quick fixes come at a high price in the N.F.L. If the Jets? owner, Woody Johnson, lets Ryan, Sanchez and the youngsters on the roster develop, it won?t take long to see results.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe we went 1-3 against the AFC West and 2-2 against the NFC West.... how on earth did that inflate our W-L record? If anything it hurt us to play the 6 games on the west coast.... Don't get me wrong, the premise of the article is right, Rookie Coach + rookie Qb = disaster/non-playoff season 95/100 times. Last year we witnessed 2 of those five times, and on top of that we watched Flacco go to the AFCCG winning more playoff games than any rookie QB in NFL history has won. So yeah just going based on the numbers, no matter how good Sanchez is, if he starts from day one this year will be tough to watch. If Sanchez has what it takes it will be worth it in the long run, but for this year, chances are it will be a long one.
"Brett Favre may have been on his last legs last year (particularly in December), but he still played better than all but the best rookie quarterbacks in history." I guess that our shit-ridden 2nd half last year, coupled with the fact that Favre through far more Int's than TD's during that period, wasn't a big deal at all. What collapse? He mentions that Favre played better than "all the best rookie QB's in history," but then goes on to cite Flacco and Ryan, both of whom had better seasons. This author should go back to playing with crayons...
If going 1-3 in December beats all but the best rookie QBs in history then history is really unkind. But I think he's wrong.
This infuriates me every time I see it. The Schottenheimer offensive scheme has been continuously crippled by Pennington Mangini and Favre. The offensive scheme is a mid-long range passing attack, not a short passing attack or a rhythm passing game. It is also not a "run first" offense as people seem to think either, and Schottenheimer said that in a recent interview, that their "all weather" offense is a balanced running/passing game. People continuously misconstrue the concessions made to Pennington's arm, Mangini's consevatism and the bending of the playbook to suit Favre's WC tendencies. Hopefully the training wheels are off and we see a real Schotty offense this year: a balanced attack which features medium to deep passes.
Ok, so are QB problem has been solved and the Schotty offense will be in full gear. HELLO, we don't have a QB.
You are so right. The Jets don't have a QB. That just might be the best Jets article I have read in a long time. It explains perfectly the type of season they will have. This is my favorite part of the aticle. When they talk about last season and how it will help the rookie LOL. You guys talk about Pennington in Miami last year with the short throws. My god the Jets were horrible in that area. I love how he compared your 3rd down passing average to throwing across your kitchen. :rofl: That was with Favre. I can only imagine how pathetic it will be with Sanchez and Clemens.
Is it just me or does there seem to be an awful lot of new Dolphin fans around lately? Where have you guys been the last few years?
i agree (somewhat) with psycho 78. fair article, well written, backs up his theories much better than a lot of opinion articles we've seen. i hope the defense surprises everybody, but when it comes to the Jet's offense: it's not going to take long for other teams' D's to stack against the run and force clemens/sanchez to launch the ball to receivers (cotch, stuckey, etc) who are not open. The jets punter has a good shot at pro bowl
You see the join date, no Dolphins fans were peaking their ugly heads in here after a 1-15 season. Or when Culpepper or Frerotte were their QBs. Or even Fiedler. Or Chad Pennington after this coming season.
The Jets also threw a lot of screens which is going to hurt the average on distance of throws. You could throw a 10 yard slant, and a screen along the line of scrimmage and pick up two first downs but the ball would have only traveled an average of 5 yards in the air. Dumb stat.
Talk about being pathetic, thats the most pathetic post I have seen. How does passing avg compare to arm strength? Maybe its called the West Coast offense? But keep posting. Honestly, its interesting to hear what the 'other side' thinks.
OK so you get selected to pro bowl if you punt the most times? Thanks for the info. For some reason, I thought it was for his avg., net avg., times punted, and popularity.
The unknown is better then the knwn and the known is that Chad had his one good year and stayed healthy through out and the Dolphins will be in hiding by the middle of October. I would rather have Sanchez and clemens then Chad.... you saw the real Chad in the playoffs fellas, the easy schedule is over... good luck
This article coming from the same guy who says the Rams are gonna be a force. They will be lucky to finish third in their division. Yet the Jets suck according to him. Why even read these articles? The Jets could win the super bowl and we would hear about how much they suck. Its always gonna be that way. Funny its usually the New York media who write these articles.
apparently Tanier never read the Lowery thread....... as far as having a rookie qb, it's NOT a death toll. there's many examples of rookie or bench qb's coming in and ripping o-rings. plus shotty has known for MONTHS what's up (unlike last season with the favre walk-on situation). every ounce of planning, every page in the play book, and every snap taken in practice is with a rookie qb in mind. having a rookie qb has been our team identity since these words were spoken: "The Jets select......".
this guys is a r'tard. if anything the easy schedule hurt us. we lost almost every game of those teams we should of beat like the raiders and seahawks. last time i checked the titans and patriots werent pushovers last year. and you can throw in miami since they went on the win the division and didnt we destroy the future nfc champs? and yeah we dont have reed but im pretty sure rhodes is a pretty good player himself. and nothing against reed i think he is a great player but i think this year we will find out if he helped make ryans defense great or ryan helped make reed great
Most of the newer fish phags posting here are obviously young. Some of the older ones who might have been posting here through their 1-15 season committed suicide instead.
You care about YAC right? So why is how far a ball traveled in the air a dumb stat. 3yard pass + 50 yrd run after = 53 yard TD
