We needed Washington to beat Baltimore to keep our wild card option open, but the skins were just engulfed by the Ravens defense which looks super bowl caliber. Now they're 9-4, but still have to play Pittsburgh and Dallas before finishing with Jacksonville. So it's possible they go 10-6 but 11-5 is most likely.
I think Baltimore will be a 10-6 team. They looked great tonight, but a lot of that is due to the fact that Washington is waaay overrated. Campbell isn't very good, Portis didn't play in the 2nd half, and nothing about the Redskins make them above average. I would be scared against Baltimore, but I think if we use our midseason pass-rush approach, we can force Flacco to make mistakes.
If NE wins the division at 11-5, we could have a 3 way 10-6 tie breaker for the final wild card. Jets, Ravens, or Fish. Suppose we beat Miami and Buffalo, they beat Jacksonville only, and Miami beats KC and San Francisco. Miami would be out because they'd have a 7-5 conference record. We'd have an 8-4 conference record, so would Baltimore. what's the next tie breaker?
the next tie-breaker is common opponent. I haven't gone through who would win it in my head, because quite frankly, I'm looking at this as division title or bust. If we do what we are supposed to do and win our games, we win the division and host a wildcard game. Case closed.
The first tie breaker is head-to-head and since you guys don't meet during the regular season the procedure would next fall to conference record. The Ravens are currently 7-3 and have Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at home to close out their conference schedule. You guys are currently 6-4 and have Buffalo and Miami left to play. Both are home games. Even if you guys win out, you still need Baltimore to lose against either Pittsburgh or Jacksonville. Assuming you are still tied the procedure goes to common opponents. The common opponents for the teams are Cincinnati, Miami, Tennessee, and Oakland. Both teams beat Miami with the NYJ winning, 20-14 on opening weekend and the Ravens winning 27-13. Both teams beat Cincinnati. The Jets won 26-14 and the Ravens won twice against them since they are a divisional foe, 17-10 and 34-3. The Ravens beat the Raiders 29-10 while the Jets lost to them 16-13. However, the Jets beat the Titans 34-13 while the Ravens lost 13-10. So right now, the Ravens are 4-1 vs. common opponents while the Jets are 3-1. If you end up tied, the Miami game at the end of the season will be huge for you guys. If you win, you'll tie the Ravens at 4-1 vs. common opponents. If you lose, the Ravens will get in ahead of you. If you're still tied, the next step is strength of victory. Your opponents are a combined 76-92-1 thus far. The Ravens opponents are 83-83-3. This is based on the opponents current record and not counting the remaining schedule. Unfortunately, the news gets worse from there. The Ravens play Pittsburgh and Dallas in the next two weeks and close with Jacksonville. You guys have Buffalo, Seattle, and Jacksonville. They really pull away here if you're tied because when you add those opponents' current records into the mix, the Ravens opponents are 105-100-3 while the Jets will be 92-115-1. Bottom line, you do not want to be tied with Baltimore and fighting for a wildcard. It's imperative that you guys win out and win your division. Either way, I'd root hard for Pittsburgh next week.
