yeah, one week ESPN and SI both ran big features on Sabathia. Huge* year because no one expects the Indians to be able to keep him. Now he's pulling off the opposite of the walk year. He learned from the wrong guy. Beltre, not Andruw Jones! *- no pun intended
no. the walk year theory doesn't say that every single player has a breakout year in his walk year. Players react differently to it.
A few years ago I took a look at the data for all of the batters who switched teams in free agency from 1976 through 1989. There appeared to be small, but real, drops in average stats between the walk year and the first year with the new team, but to a large extent they came from players having fewer at bats with the new team. I wouldn't be surprised if similar patterns exist for pitchers. I would guess that the walk year effect is small, but real, on average, but is overwhelmingly swamped by the usual year-to-year variability of players when you look at it on player-by-player basis.
Without even seeing the data I would absolutely agree with everything you said. I'm sure there is a slight fluctuation in the walk year for each player. Whether up or down, there is a certain level of pressure that must be dealt with. Some guys will react positively and get a small boost, while some will crumble a bit under the pressure. I just don't subscribe to the thinking that any particular player is worlds better or worse solely due to their walk year. If a player could "turn it on" at will, they'd never bother with long-term deals and would just perform at a higher level every year to earn an even bigger payday.
I believe some players are motivated a lot more, especially in baseball where you can get a huge big money deal for one good season and then you can slack off because all your $150 million is guaranteed. Friggin' Adrian Beltre has to be the #1 poster boy. JD Drew is another good one. There would definitely be a difference if you compare walk years of players finishing up a multi-year deal and other years.
watching it here in australia...there is some perverse pleasure watching this game how stupid was chubbs from the padres that got greedy and went for a 0 out triple instead of the comfortable double in around the 12th inning curently 1-1 in the top of the 17th...it was 0-0 until the 14th were both scored runs
Both of these are pretty poor examples. Beltre has played 9 full major league seasons and has been mediocre in all but one, isn't it more likely that he was just juicing that season? He's more of a Brady Anderson then anything else. As for Drew, he's been pretty consistently good when he plays, dude is just really injury prone.
both are examples of guys who somehow stayed healthy and had good seasons for once. The walk years really stand out.
Patriots Day contest at Fenway means 11:05 start. Don't see that very often (except in Boston, I suppose).
So you believe that the "walk year" phenomenon also includes the ability to will yourself not to get injured?
