I will sound off on this, as I spend a lot of time each off season evaluating our drafts based on Davis history going back to 1966. Based on the premise that we are all creatures of habit, there is about a 3% chance that Davis takes a RB in the first round. He has done so twice, never this high, and one of those times, Ron Wolf had to convince him to do so (Marcus Allen). But, here is the wrinkle. Davis loves athletes. McFadden is a very fast and very athletic back, and based on his love of speed and athleticism, that percentage goes up about 5%. While Davis loves his linemen, both defensive and offensive, if Chris Long is there at 4, he would take him. He loves legacies, so the son of one of his great picks would be too tempting not to do so. Problem is, Long will not be there. Jake Long is a RT, and while he also is tempting because of his size/athletic combination, Davis is really in need of a LT, and Long will probably be going to Atlanta unless they go QB (which I have heard they are not going to do) Dorsey is an interior line man, and Davis has spent mad money on that position this off season, so Dorsey you can remove from the board. Gholston is a typical Davis pick, but they just signed Edwards, all but eliminating the need for a pass rushing end. Unless Davis moves out of the pick, which would take a lot of compensation that few teams are interested in giving up, with each eliminated player at the top of the draft, you increase the probability that Davis will take McFadden by about 10% So, as of right now, the laws of probability based on need, history and value puts taking McFadden at around 67%, which I will project is enough to say with pretty solid certainty that you will not be seeing McFadden at 6
I was wondering if the NFL kept fumbles to yards gained statistics on backs? It would be Similar to a QB's TDs to INTs. What would be considered good? Going by Curtis Martin numbers - 737 yards gained per for every 1 fumble. This is likely the high end of the bar. I would think that 1 fumble in every 450 - 500 yards gained would be considered good.
I was following you until you actually came up with a probability of 67% of Davis selecting McFadden. How did you arrive at that number?
The number does seem pretty random...but all in all the things he says are worth merit. There is just no way Long falls to Oakland (duh). Jake Long, Matt Ryan, and Glenn Dorsey aren't the right fits in Oakland. And lets not forget Davis shelled out some huge dollars to establish an aggressive top tier defense. All signs point to Mcfadden. The only question left is if Davis goes against the grain this time. And with a guy that age my guess is heck no....he'll take Mcfadden alright. If he can't win a championship the second best thing is building a team that is exciting to watch week in/ week out. Mcfadden brings to the table....
While 67% seems random, here is the stats I used: 3% history of selecting a RB first round (+ or-1%) Booster for athlete/speedster 5% Chris Long gone 10% increase Not needing other top 5 selections (J Long, Gholston, Ryan, Dorsey, Top corner in draft (we all know Davis loves his corners)) 50% increase for each available or unavailable player So the number becomes 67-68% based on eliminations and the idea that we will in all likelihood be unable to trade down. That number goes down significantly if a trade partner is gone, and Dallas has stated they are not trading up. If the Jets trade up two spots, the price will probably be a first and a first next year (I just do not see Davis doing it for less) If there is a 67% chance we do not select another player, then from a value point of view McFadden goes at #4 from a probability point of view
Raiders could easily pass on Mcfadden. Lets see Dominating defense plus a consistant running game(they proved that by being sixth leading rushing team) = a potential playoff team. How do Raiders further upgrade that defense Im say by taking USC OLB Keith Rivers. Raiders are going to be playing a hybrid 3-4/ 4-3 defense next year. Keith Rivers just might be better fit than Gholston. Would give the Raiders three coverage LBS . (Rivers, Thomas howard and Morrison) To go with Two Passrushers DE/Olbs roatating (Burgess and Edwards) You throw that LB corp with the Raiders secondary and the defensive motto would be - Thou shall not pass. How does this improve the run defense easily. Thomas HOward can play anywhere. You can put him at for arguements sake at safety ( 240 pounds) . Beauty of it all is you lose nothing in coverage with him at safety. Also you can be alot more agressive - as you have alot of interchangeable parts) You can blitz from anywhere and lose nothing in coverage.
Raider Joe neglects to acknowledge the fact that the Raiders are perennial idiots. McFadden doesn't get past the Raiders and yet somehow they continue to be a laughing stock. Chew on that bust for a few years just like Gallery, Washington, Huff, etc...
It would take a 1st and a 3rd (if they had one) for the Jets to move up to #4 and Davis would be doing cartwheels to get that deal. He has only that 1 pick in the first 4 (or is it 5) rounds. (actually, it's a 1st and a 4th in the first 5 rounds..just looked it up. Not sure where that 4th came from.) He has also spent 130 million dollars on 2 players in the last year and really doesn't need another 45 million dollar player right now.
M Huff is one of the premier cover safeties in football. HE does a great job of controling the Tes.(Very important when you play in AFC West) F Washington had a better rookie year than Revis . Not so good second season. Point is every team has busts. D Brickshaw Ferguson, Robertson, J Vilma, and J Miller(yes he made the probowl as Kickreturner but they drafted him to play CB- which he couldn't cover my 98 year old grandma.
raiders def don't need a rb especially at round 1, they need to go with a dline. raiders had a verfy good rushing attack with fargas, and they still have michael bush, a first round talent that fell b/c of injuries and still have dominic rhodes and jordan, although jordan might be gone soon. They def need to beef up their line especially now that they got d. hall they need some good pressure up front to help out the corners
Notice that for the most part all of those picks are past the mid way point of the first round. Their is more then likely going to be a premeir player in McFadden sitting there when they pick. I doubt they pass on him. Plus you left out JaMarcus Russell last year.
So D Brick is a bust already? Damn I mean he is playing LT on a bad team with nobody else to mentor him on that Offensive Line since Kendall left. Now he has Faneca. Can we give the guy more then 2 seasons to play the posistion? Please explain to me how Vilma was a bust? He is one of the best 4-3 LB's in the league. They had a coaching change and Mangini switched to a 3-4. He's not a 3-4 LB. That makes him a bust? It's still to early to even call Miller a bust. He's played 2 seasons and went to the Pro Bowl in one of them (as a KR I know but still you cant take that away from him) If Miller turns out to have a great career as a KR and below average as a CB then I still dont see anyway you can call him a bust.
My head exploded after reading this excerpt of idiocy... How can see say Fabian Washington had a better rookie season than Darrelle Revis? That's just ridiculous. Revis had twice as many tackles and 2 more INTs. Stop being such an incredible homer. The Raiders are rebuilding and may be a good team down the road, but they suck now. Get over it. Calling a former defensive rookie of the year a bust is flat out stupid. Vilma wasn't even close to being a bust. The AFC West is garbage man. The Chiefs will arguably be the worst team in the NFL next season. The Broncos are terribly inconsistent. The Chargers are the only team that has a shot at making the playoffs next season. I'm glad Michael Huff can shut down Eddie Kennison, but he can't stop Antonio Gates from getting down field. Just for kicks: Jamarcus Russell had a pretty dismal season in Oakland. It's safe to say he is more of a bust than any of the Jets' players you mentioned...oh wait, we aren't allowed to call out any player on the Raiders when Raiderjoe is involved.
Umm, i think they already made that pick, they had number 1 overall last year and they took Jamarcus Russel, maybe youv'e heard of him?? In the 2008 draft i seriuously doubt they will take Darren Mcfadden
ok dude Vilma was an allpro in the 4-3 and will be again shortly, Dbrick is although not a stud lt, hes FAR better than Robert "the traffic cone" Gallery Robertson ill give you but Miller was a second round pick that made the probowl and imo stil has potential to develop into a nice nickelback.
j vilma a bust? thank you for allowing me to skip over the rest of your posts knowing they will probably contain the same ignorance as this one
He did not hear you he is busy jacking off to his Al Davis poster. He will be back in a matter of seconds.
Darren McFadden seems to be just the kind of high hype draft opportunity that appeals to Al Davis. Another thing to consider: Al has committed an enormous amount of FA money to this year. He appears to be doing a "reductio ad Absurdum" riff on his latest HC victim, Lane Kiffin. This would be another nail on Kiffin's "put-up-or-shut-up" coffin for Al Davis: Picking McFadden. If Kiffin can't win with all these investments, he's gone. Al Davis just likes to kill his knights...a jealous king.
