I've read a lot of posts where posters have suggested trading to the mid-teens and picking up an extra third rounder in the process, but I just felt like saying that with a trade-down into the teens a lot more could be acquired. All according to the draft valuechart: http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html The farthest we could go down into the teens while still being able to get a second rounder in return WITHOUT having the other team give us more value back would be the 14th pick, picking up the 44th overall as well (the Chicago Bears' picks). However, the 6th pick is worth 1600 pts overall and we'd only be getting 1560 back, so we could still acquire something else on top of this. In addition, if we wanted to trade down to the 13th pick and pick up the 43rd overall (Carolina Panthers' picks), we'd be getting back 20 more points so we may have to bridge that gap as well. Let's say our man is Gholston, and he's not there at 6, does anyone else see these scenarios as realistic trade down possibilities?? Especially if McFadden is still on board at the 6 or if a team wants to trade up for Mendenhall. Especially with both Chicago, who could definitely look for a runner to pair with Benson, as well as Carolina, who may look for a back to shoulder the load with DeAngelo Williams. Thoughts?
The draft value chart is just not realistic year in and year out. Each year you have differing amounts of players that are A+ talent. In a year such as the current one where the A+ talent is limited the value of the picks will change. This will of course affect what the later picks are valued at. The 6th pick this year is not always valued the same as in prior years. It also doesn't take into account individual team needs which will also change the value. Trying to work a trade down on the value chart from so many years ago is just not realistic.
If the Jets trade out of the #6 to the mid-teens, they're getting more than just a 3rd rounder. I don't know who started that "rumor". Especially if McFadden is there, the Jets could get an absolute fortune.
Trading down sounds great but it very rarely happens that early in the 1st. Too expensive for teams to trade up, both in costs of contracts and costs of lost picks. There would have to be a player there at #6 that a team couldn't live without and I just don't see it. Since RB's have a short life expectancy, I don't see someone giving up a ton for him when they can wait and select one of the other good RB's.
I'm not sure the Jets could get fair value for the 6th pick in what appears like a pretty deep draft. However, many agree that the top tier of players is 6-7 players deep. I think much will depend on who is available when they pick. Most would agree that if Chris Long falls to 6, the Jets will grab him. Most would agree that if Jake Long falls to 6, the Jets should grab him. I don't think the Jets really want Matt Ryan at 6, and he might be gone first. Having picked up Jenkins, I think the Jets would pass on Dorsey. The wildcards, so to speak, are McFadden and Gholston. With McFadden, they may be able to get a good price for the 6th pick. The question is, do they want a running back this high. On one hand, a breakaway threat is sorely need on offense. On the other hand, Thomas Jones may have a strong year with an improved offensive line, and it may be more important to fill other needs. WIth Gholston, the question is do the Jets see him as a rare QB rushing talent or, as some suggest, a workout warrior? The Jets need to improve their pass rush, and I don't think the additions of Jenkins and Pace really help that much. Sure, they can blitz more, but Long and Gholston appear to be the strongest pass rushers in the draft. Other pressing needs to be addressed include: wide receiver and corner back. If they take a QB in the second or third round, it says much about Clemens. They also might want to pick up another running back in the second or third rounds to plan for the future. A quality guard or tackle (to allow Woody to move inside to guard) also would be tempting. My prediction - the Jets take Chris Long, Jake Long, McFadden or Gholston if available; if all taken first, they trade down (to a team like the Ravens who want a QB if Ryan not taken by Falcons or Chiefs). Mike
I'm really starting to hate that value chart. People refer to it like it's some sort of official exchange rate and you've been shafted if you don't get exactly what the chart says you should have got. Like you point out, it all depends on quality of players available and team needs/desires.
first of all jake long isnt getting past the chiefs, but if he did, we'd get more for him than mcfadden probably
good call. Someone would definitely go after Long at 6 rather than DMC. Long is a known 10 yr pro, while DMC has too many questions about him. Long would be great trade bait at 6, but there is no way he falls that far.
If McFadden is there the Jets will take McFadden and all this talk of trading down will just prove the myth that it already is. The same is true with either Long or Gholston although Gholston is not quite as cast in concrete. They are not going to trade down if any of those guys are there and nobody is going to trade up if they aren't either so please stop the nonsense.
The draft value chart is nearly obsolete in today's NFL.The way the top of the draft goes today is buy demand.There aren't many teams willing to move up in this years draft to the 5 or even 6 slot the cost of the contracts is exorbinant and if you draft a bust you have dead cap space to deal with for the next 3-5 years. I believe the draft chart is useful when you drop out of the top 10 picks. It's there usually where you'll have teams willing to come up or down.
Our best hope is trading down to 9 or 10 with someone looking for a DT, then grabbing a #3 this would get us a decent receiver.
Good analysis Mike... really terrific analysis... and I think you're spot on. It's going to unfold this way. And I have no problem moving down if somebody wants it. We're going to be okay either way, IMO.
It's not just this year. The only team to trade into the top 5 in the last 10 years has been the Jets and that was for Robertson. Good move?
Won't happen. If Ellis and Dorsey are the only premium players left then nobody will trade up to our spot. They know we won't take them, NE won't and Baltimore won't because we all run the 3-4. They can wait and make that trade much cheaper.
Thanks, although I'm mentally prepared to be totally wrong. The Jets have shocked me on draft day too many times for me to confident about anything. I'm currently thinking that the Jets would want McFadden and/or Gholston, and that they probably wouldn't get offered enough to trade down from 6 if one of those guys are available. I'm assuming Chris Long and Jake Long are long gone by the time the Jets pick. An interesting scenario would be if Matt Ryan is available (the Falcons and Chiefs are probably the only candidates in the top 5 who would take him). If the Falcons and Chiefs pass on Ryan, other teams in need of a QB probably will look to start moving up, and it may give the Jets a chance to trade down but not too far. The NFL draft should be a national holiday. Mike
I'm not saying they wouldn't take McFadden. I'm saying they COULD get a fortune in return for trading down if they chose to, which is the absolute truth.
