I understand this will probably not be received too well by a bunch of you but I will explain my reasoning. The Jets have already signed 6 free agents with possible two more on the horizon (Franks and a CB). Six of these guys will be starters. With that what are our real needs? Maybe a QB and a WR. Good WRs can be found in any round as history has shown. Hell, some have been walk ons. In any event neither position will normally make an impact in their first year. Sure it's nice to add depth but in at least some of these cases last years starters will become this years backups. As it is we need to jetison at least 6-8 roster players from last year at the least. We already have enough new players on both sides of the ball that it will almost be like starting over with them having to learn the offense and defense. How many more will we want to add to that mix? That's why I strongly believe that if any of the players they target on their board are still there when Atlanta or Oakland pick they will make an all out effort to move up and grab them. If you remember, watching the draft last year they mentioned that the Jets had at least once previously tried to move up in the first round before they were finally successful in doing so and grabbing Revis. This year it will be much easier to pull off.
The reason the Jets are as bad as they are right now is that they have consistently ignored the common wisdom on how to use the draft - to whit: Take the Best Player Available at your slot regardless of need. In fact they have not only reached for need (excepting the still inexplicable choice of Bryan Thomas in 2002) they have often traded up to do it. The reason you do not reach for need is that you inevitably wind up with a less-talented player on your pick or one with more secondary questions than is optimal (Santana Moss, D-Rob and Vilma) than you otherwise would (the players taken on the Jets original picks in 2001 and 2003 are Casey Hampton and Ty Warren, both excellent defensive linemen) and this contributes heavily to your talent base being less talented that it otherwise would. The reason you do not trade-up in the draft is that it hits your depth really hard to consistently give up multiple draft slots for one prospect. Prospects hit and miss and they get hurt. Therefore you need a lot of them to maintain a stable, deep roster in the NFL. To do both things: to reach for need AND to trade-up is just a ticket to the cellar, which is where the Jets headed in a hurry in 2003 when an injury upset the applecart for them. Note that the Jets were 4-5 with Chad after he returned, so his injury is not the sole reason the Jets performance declined in 2003. In 2005 the Jets depth was miserable and they declined again. In 2007 the talent in both trenches was bad and the depth was weak also. What the Jets need to do this year in the draft is to take the best player available if they exercise the 6 pick, but if there is nobody there who really helps the team they need to trade down, not up, and begin to rebuild their depth. Alan Faneca is over 30, Calvin Pace is 28, Thomas Jones is headed towards 30 this season. The Jets depth is not what it seems even after the free agent haul. We're pretty similar to where we were headed into 2005, with the exception that there was more talent on the team then.
Move up for who?Chris Long is the only player worth moving up for and he will be gone to the Dolphins at #1.I hope we do not move up, if anything we move down.Either way we are sitting pretty and I will be very happy with DMC or Gholston.
All three are players I would assume they would target. If 1 or two of them are gone in the first two picks I think they try and move up at #3 for the third. The same at pick #4. I think they should have no interest in Ryan, Jake Long, Dorsey or Ellis. Depth or not. Not with a pick that high. Not this year anyway.
We've filled most of our needs, we can sit back and let the draft come to us. If anything, trade down.
That is probably the dumbest thing I have ever heard. We have the #6 PICK, not somewhere in the 20s and we would be better off trading down hoping to get two 1st rounders but trading up, especially from the #6 spot, is honestly stupid..
Great post. I agree. All signs to the opposite, us trading down. Why pick up veteran players and then give up even more draft picks? There will be an unbelievable amount of talent available in the 2nd and 3rd round. Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco and Chad Henne will all most likely be available in the 2nd round and if we can pick up another 2nd rounder, then we can look at our cb, wr and rb needs. Also, we have picked up veteran o-lineman but that does not mean that we should ignore the line. Expect us to draft a guard or tackle in the first three rounds to add youth and eventual replacements to Moore, Faneca and Woody.
Well, here's the problem with trading down besides finding a partner. With the guaranteed money spent on Faneca, Woody amd Jenkins they are not now going to spend 40 million dollars on a OL or DL to sit on the bench. You just don't do that. Everybody who might be inclined to move up knows that better than I do. Why would they trade up knowing the Jets would have no choice but to take a lesser valued player anyway? They wouldn't. They might at #7 (NE, of course) and make them a deal but not with us. Of course if we get into that position, which I doubt, and he is still there, we will just take Ryan assuming his stock hasn't fallen by then.
no offense but this makes no sense. if you're looking to trade up to nab a specific player, say a Dorsey or Ellis, you don't care if you know the Jets would otherwise say pick a corner. what about the other teams you're trading up over, any one of them could take the player you want. I dont understand the 40 mil comment either, if that was in reference to the rookie, a lineman at #6 isn't getting anywhere near that kind of money.
Yea Don, no offense but your statements see odd and inconsistent, but it ultimately depends on who drops to #6 because if DMC is there, I guarantee that there will be offers available
If Long is there at #3, and Gholston was picked at 2 and we know that Davis is not going to pick DMC, and he is the golden OLB we've been looking for- than lets send DRob, a 4th, 7th, and the #6 and get Long. We would still have our 2nd and 4th... That is the only situation i'd do it for. Other than that- the FA pickups were more to give us the comfortable strategy to sit at 6 and wait for the BPA to be there. Whether it be Long, Gholston, or DMC. Those are the 3 i see us going after. If we trade down, then we are even more set- but signing those players is contingent on getting rid of DRob's awful contract.
While I agree that the Jets have been terrible at drafting, again I have to point out how you can't seem to separate this regime from every other regime in franchise history. I realize to you they haven't done anything to separate them from our past regimes, but thats because philosophy doesn't seem to matter as much as results...which is both good and bad. Anyway, we've went BPA early in the past two drafts..D'Brick was a weird blend of BPA, safest pick, and monster need...Mangold was probably the best C prospect to come out in a very long time...Revis was both BPA and need...Harris was BPA and need... Overall, I completely agree with what you're saying but it seems like you ignored that we've gone BPA early two years in a row. We even very aggressively traded up to get the best guys on our board last year...and that seems to have worked out very well. That last paragraph is just ridiculous though...I don't buy that at all. We're nowhere close to the '05 team, and I honestly have no idea how you even came close to that conclusion. On the OP: Unless they REALLY love Long or Gholston, I don't think theres a chance in hell we trade up. It's pretty much a lock that we get one of the drafts best players at 6, and we'd just be throwing away other very valuable picks to get up a couple spots.
The jets have not been terrible at drafting at all in the last 5 years.. they put in two starters last year that will take this team to a new level. from everything I have read they have gotten a B+ for their past five year draft selections.
Who the hell is there to move up for? Chris Long is the best player in the draft, but he's not the perfect fit for us. If he's there at 6, take him and run, but don't trade up for him. I wouldn't have minded Jake Long at 6, but we have Woody now, and there's no way in hell we're moving up from 6 to get an RT. We're not moving up for Dorsey, Ellis, or Ryan. That leaves Gholston and McFadden. We don't need an RB enough to move up, and Gholston has too many questions to move up for, and there's a good chance he's there at 6 anyway. I will be beyond stunned if we move up in the first round.
The way I look at it is the Jets have Chris Long, McFadden and Gholston on their radar. I truly believe that one of these three will fall to us at six and that's who we will go with. I'll be happy with any of them. If not we trade down and stockpile picks for depth. Yes it is true that we (at least on paper) don't have any glaring needs anymore, which is all the more reason to pick BPA and acquire some fantastic depth.
I have said it before...no fucking way we trade up again this offseason. We pulled it off last season, but it simply is too risky to do over and over again.
Joe Thomas got 49.5 million at the #3 pick last year. 40 million at #6 is no reach at all a year later. You are going to be paying at least 40 million no matter who you pick at #6. Just saying that the player you are paying that kind of money too better be worthy of the #6 pick. To think you can trade down just because you want to is a fantasy.
If the Jets move up I will not be a happy camper post-draft... this draft is very deep in positions we need and there is no need to commit on one player
