With the Senior Bowl having come and gone and the NFL combine still more than two weeks away, the NFL draft process is in a quiet period right now. That doesn't mean things aren't changing, though. The No. 1 spot in Scouts Inc.'s mock draft has changed hands, with Boston College QB Matt Ryan moving up from No. 3 and landing with the Miami Dolphins. The player Ryan replaces, LSU DT Glenn Dorsey, drops to the Oakland Raiders at No. 4. Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, who is rated as the best overall prospect in the 2008 class, moves up to Ryan's former spot. Kentucky QB Andre' Woodson takes the biggest fall after his struggles at the Senior Bowl, dropping from 14th all the way out of the first round. However, linemen still occupy three of the top five spots and six of the top 10. There are 14 juniors in this first-round projection as well, including a run of seven straight underclassmen beginning at No. 15. Much will change between now and the draft in April, but here is how I see things shaking out at this early juncture: Note: * denotes underclassman; ** denotes teams that will decide draft order by coin flip at NFL combine 1. Miami Dolphins -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College Record: 1-15 | Needs: OT, DL, ILB, CB, QB Previous mock selection: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU Assuming for our purposes that the Dolphins are unable to trade down, they will have a difficult decision to make between Ryan, DE Chris Long, OT Jake Long and DT Glenn Dorsey. Either of the Longs makes sense, considering offensive tackle and defensive line are two of the team's biggest needs. Dorsey is considered by many to be the No. 2 player in this year's class, but he's not an ideal fit for a 3-4 defensive scheme and it doesn't make financial sense to spend No. 1-type money on a lineman who will be asked to take up space. That's why Ryan makes a lot of sense. At the end of the day, it will come down to Bill Parcells' opinion of current Miami QB John Beck, whom the former Dolphins regime drafted in the second round last year. If Parcells thinks he can win with Beck, Jake Long would be the next best option, followed by Chris Long, then Dorsey. If not, Ryan should be the selection. He has all the physical tools of a franchise quarterback and, most importantly, he possesses rare intangibles. 2. St. Louis Rams -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia Record: 3-13 | Needs: DE, G/OT, CB, OLB, WR Previous mock selection: Same The season-ending injury to perennial Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace and the Rams' overall poor play along the offensive line in 2007-08 make Jake Long a possibility with this pick. But assuming Pace returns to form, the Rams have a much bigger need along the interior of their offensive line, and tackle can be addressed in free agency or in later rounds of the draft. Don't be surprised, then, if St. Louis goes with the other Long at No. 2. Chris is not a prototypical edge rusher, but he is a dominant playmaker with rare versatility and a motor that never quits. The Rams could solidify their defensive line for years to come by teaming him with last year's first-round selection, DT Adam Carriker. 3. Atlanta Falcons** -- Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas Record: 4-12 | Needs: QB, OT, DT, RB, S Previous mock selection: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College Ryan should be the Falcons' selection if he is available, but if he is not, Atlanta will have to make a difficult decision among McFadden, Dorsey and Jake Long. The team has needs at all three positions, so this would be tough choice. McFadden is the top prospect on most teams' draft boards, though, so it is easy to envision this scenario playing out. McFadden could provide the type of offensive boost for the Falcons that Adrian Peterson gave the Vikings last season. That type of potential is tough to pass up. 4. Oakland Raiders** -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU Record: 4-12 | Needs: OT, DT, WR, DE, RB Previous mock selection: Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas The Raiders are financially strapped and will not want to dish out top-five money one year after selecting QB JaMarcus Russell with the top overall pick. If McFadden still is on the board, don't count out a blockbuster trade by owner Al Davis, since Cowboys owner and Arkansas alum Jerry Jones already has made his interest known. If Oakland is stuck here with McFadden gone, it will need to choose between Dorsey and Jake Long. While Long is worth the pick, Dorsey is the higher-rated player. He could provide the type of interior disruption the Raiders' defense has been lacking and fill in nicely for Warren Sapp, who announced his retirement following the 2007 season. 5. Kansas City Chiefs** -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan Record: 4-12 | Needs: OT, DE, C, WR, CB Previous mock selection: Same Quarterback still is a question mark, but the Chiefs' No. 1 priority this offseason should be solidifying their offensive front. Long is unquestionably the most dominant offensive lineman in the 2008 class and could help Kansas City achieve its goal in a hurry. He has the versatility to play either right or left tackle, and his combination of size, technique, athletic ability and a mean streak would improve the Chiefs' line almost immediately. 6. New York Jets -- Vernon Gholston*, DE, Ohio State Record: 4-12 | Needs: WR, NT, OLB, ILB, G Projected pick: Same This could be a bit of a reach for Gholston, who flashes top-10 talent in some games (three sacks against Michigan this season) but disappears in too many others. However, don't be surprised if he works his way into the top 10 simply because this year's crop of elite edge rushers does not meet the level of demand. That said, Gholston is one of the premier pass-rushing prospects in the 2008 class, and he would be the right fit as a rush linebacker in the Jets' 3-4 scheme. 7. N.E. Patriots (from 5-11 San Francisco) -- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy Record: 18-1 | Needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL depth Previous mock selection: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida The Patriots would like to inject some youth at inside linebacker, but there isn't a player worth selecting this high, with USC's Rey Maualuga and Ohio State's James Laurinaitis both returning to school in the fall. The next priority is to find a replacement for Asante Samuel, a free agent who can't be franchised for a second consecutive year. McKelvin currently is the top-rated cornerback in a 2008 crop that is deep but lacks elite talent atop the board. As always, look for the Patriots to shop this pick heavily. 8. Baltimore Ravens -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC Record: 5-11 | Needs: CB, QB, OLB, LOT, DT Previous mock selection: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville Baltimore would like to use this pick to put an end to a seemingly endless pursuit for a franchise quarterback. Unfortunately, there isn't one worth selecting here with Ryan off the board. Instead, the Ravens could go with the best value on the board (Ellis) or fill a hole at either cornerback (Mike Jenkins) or left tackle (Ryan Clady). Knowing the Ravens' draft-day discipline, Ellis will be the pick in this scenario. 9. Cincinnati Bengals -- Derrick Harvey*, DE, Florida Record: 7-9 | Needs: DT, LB, OT, DE, TE Previous mock selection: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC The Bengals have a much bigger need for interior help, but if Dorsey and Ellis are gone, there isn't a defensive tackle worth drafting at No. 9. Harvey is a bit of a reach here, but coach Marvin Lewis' defense is starving for potential playmakers, and Harvey possesses the pass-rushing skills and frame to develop into an impact starter in the NFL. 10. New Orleans Saints -- Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida Record: 7-9 | Needs: CB, MLB, DT, OLB, TE Previous mock selection: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina Cornerback and linebacker are the Saints' biggest areas of need, and Jenkins is the best athlete available at those positions. His combination of size, speed and athleticism is outstanding, and his recognition skills continue to improve each season. Jenkins also brings versatility to the table, since he can play some safety and chip in on returns. If New Orleans uses this pick on a corner, it should find much better value at linebacker early in Round 2. 11. Buffalo Bills -- Malcolm Kelly*, WR, Oklahoma Record: 7-9 | Needs: WR, CB, TE, LB, DT Previous mock selection: DeSean Jackson*, WR, California Kelly is the type of big receiver the Bills need as a complement to current wideout Lee Evans. Kelly is unusually fluid for a bigger wideout and he might have the strongest hands of any player in the 2008 draft. However, Jackson could join forces with RB Marshawn Lynch to give Buffalo one of the most exciting young offensive skill groups in the NFL.
12. Denver Broncos -- Ryan Clady*, OT, Boise State Record: 7-9 | Needs: OT, DT, S, MLB, G Previous mock selection: Same Clady still is improving his strength, but he possesses impressive feet to go along with his enormous wingspan and huge frame. He would be an ideal fit in Denver's famed zone-blocking scheme and give a boost to the Broncos' running game. 13. Carolina Panthers -- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt Record: 7-9 | Needs: QB, DE, OT, WR, OLB Previous mock selection: Calais Campbell*, DE, Miami Instead of drafting a young signal-caller who will need time to develop, look for the Panthers to bring in veteran competition for current QB Matt Moore, who showed some positive signs late in the season. Drafting a defensive end like Campbell to fill a need is a possibility, but don't be surprised if the team looks to fill a hole at offensive tackle, where Travelle Wharton and Jordan Gross are set to become free agents. 14. Chicago Bears -- Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville Record: 7-9 | Needs: QB, LOT, DT, G, RB Previous mock selection: Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky The Bears will have a tough decision to make if Brohm still is available at No. 14. There has been a lot of talk about the Bears going in a different direction with this pick, including offensive and defensive tackle. And while that makes a lot of sense, I still wouldn't rule out Brohm just yet. His stock is likely to soar between now and April's draft because he should impress scouts with his overall passing efficiency and football intelligence during the combine and individual workouts. 15. Detroit Lions -- Aqib Talib*, CB, Kansas Record: 7-9 | Needs: ROT, G, CB, S, DE Projected pick: Same The Lions will be selecting outside of the top 10 for the first time since 2001, and now the trick is to find quality players this far down the line. The Lions' secondary is undermanned and would welcome the services of Talib, who is a versatile, fluid athlete with excellent size and ball skills. His elite athleticism was on display when returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown this season, and he also saw some snaps on offense. 16. Arizona Cardinals -- Rashard Mendenhall*, RB, Illinois Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, OLB, TE, RB, DE Previous mock selection: Jonathan Stewart*, RB, Oregon The Cardinals have more pressing needs on the other side of the ball -- defensive tackle and cornerback -- but there isn't an available player at those positions who is as valuable as Mendenhall. He has the size, burst and versatility to eventually develop into an every-down starter. In the meantime, Mendenhall and Edgerrin James would make a heck of a 1-2 punch for the next year or two. 17. Minnesota Vikings -- DeSean Jackson*, WR/RS, California Record: 8-8 | Needs: DE, WR, S, QB, TE Previous mock selection: Derrick Harvey*, DE, Florida Believe it or not, Minnesota still is in the market for help at wide receiver and defensive end, despite investing first- or second-round picks in the past four drafts on WRs Troy Williamson (2005) and Sidney Rice (2007), and DEs Kenechi Udeze (2004) and Erasmus James (2005). Jackson still has room to improve as a route runner, and he must get stronger in order to endure a grueling 16-game NFL schedule, but his home run ability after the catch, on vertical routes and on punt returns will be tempting for teams drafting in the top 20 overall. 18. Houston Texans -- Jonathan Stewart*, RB, Oregon Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, RB, WR, S, LOT, G Previous mock selection: Kenny Phillips*, S, Miami The Texans need a featured back to go along with QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson, and Stewart has the bulk, burst and versatility to quickly fill that role. He also could offer a boost in the kickoff return game. 19. Philadelphia Eagles -- Calais Campbell*, DE, Miami Record: 8-8 | Needs: WR, TE, DE, OT/G, S, LB Previous mock selection: Malcolm Kelly*, WR, Oklahoma Philadelphia OTs Jon Runyan and William Thomas aren't getting any younger, so Pittsburgh OT Jeff Otah is a possibility here. The Eagles also are in search of a home run threat at wide receiver, so don't count out Michigan's Mario Manningham. However, there aren't that many 6-foot-8, 280-pound defensive ends with Campbell's athleticism coming out of the college ranks these days, so don't be surprised if the Eagles take a flyer on this unpolished but supremely talented end. 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Mario Manningham*, WR, Michigan Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, OT, OLB, CB, QB Previous mock selection: Sam Baker, OT, USC Coach John Gruden will be pressing general manager Bruce Allen for a young playmaker at wide receiver, and Allen knows Manningham is capable of special things in the NFL. If Manningham gets with a coach like Gruden at the next level, he could emerge as the most productive wideout from a very talented 2008 class. 21. Washington Redskins -- Phillip Merling*, DE, Clemson Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, DE, S, OT, CB Previous mock selection: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas Sweed is a possibility here since wide receiver is on the short list of big needs for the Redskins, but Merling is a fast-rising junior prospect who is shooting up the draft boards of many NFL teams. The more we study film of him, the more we like his combination of size (6-4, 275), power and agility, and his ability to get into opposing backfields. Merling has the tools to become an impact starter in the next couple of seasons and would fill an area of need for Washington. 22. Dallas Cowboys (from 10-6 Cleveland) -- Sam Baker, OT, USC Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, WR, OT, RB, ILB Previous mock selection: Mario Manningham*, WR, Michigan Assuming owner Jerry Jones doesn't package picks to trade up, expect Dallas to use its two picks to address needs at corner, receiver, offensive tackle and possibly running back. Baker's stock is dropping after an injury-plagued senior season and a mediocre showing at the Senior Bowl, but he possesses the athleticism and technique to surprise a lot of people at the next level. 23. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh Record: 10-6 | Needs: OT, C, DE (3-4), G, RB Previous mock selection: Same The Steelers could use two of their first three picks on offensive linemen. They have bigger holes to fill inside, but Otah is far and away the best lineman available in this scenario. Interior help is available for a good value in later rounds (Oregon State G Roy Schuening, and centers Mike Pollak of Arizona State and John Sullivan of Notre Dame).
24. Tennessee Titans -- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas Record: 10-6 | Needs: WR, CB, TE, WR, OL Previous mock selection: Early Doucet, WR, LSU The Titans need to draft a legitimate weapon for QB Vince Young to target in the passing attack, and who would be better than Young's former college teammate? Sweed could slip a bit due to a wrist injury that cut his senior season short and was re-aggravated at the Senior Bowl. However, when Sweed is healthy, he is arguably the most physically gifted receiver in this year's class. The 6-4, 217-pounder is worth the risk, in my opinion. 25. Seattle Seahawks -- Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina Record: 10-6 | Needs: ROT, DT, RB, TE, G Previous mock selection: Rashard Mendenhall*, RB, Illinois It is unlikely current Seattle starting RB Shaun Alexander will ever return to his 2005 MVP form, and backup Maurice Morris has proved to be at his best when limited to a complementary role. However, with McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall all off the board, look for the Seahawks to go in a different direction here. Balmer is a fast-rising prospect with very good size, power and quickness. He would be a welcome addition to Seattle's thin interior defensive line. 26. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Early Doucet, WR, LSU Record: 11-5 | Needs: WR, DE, SS, CB Previous mock selection: Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn The Jaguars should use this pick on the best available receiver or pass-rusher. Groves will be a possibility if he checks out physically at the combine. Doucet is another solid choice this late in the first round, however. While he is unlikely to emerge as anything more than a No. 2 receiver in the NFL, Doucet possesses the quickness and run-after-catch ability to complement Jacksonville's group of bigger receivers. 27. San Diego Chargers -- Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College Record: 11-5 | Needs: RG/ROT, NT, FB, RB Previous mock selection: Dan Connor, MLB, Penn State The Chargers can select the best available athlete if they want, but the right side of their offensive line could use an upgrade, and Cherilus projects as a solid starting right tackle in the NFL. Cherilus' stock is on the rise following his impressive showing at the Senior Bowl. 28. Dallas Cowboys -- Felix Jones*, RB, Arkansas Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, WR, OT, ILB, RB Previous mock selection: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy If owner Jerry Jones can't strike a deal for McFadden, he could settle for Arkansas' other first-round running back prospect. Felix Jones is a speedster who could complement current Dallas RB Marion Barber well and provide a home run threat in the return game. 29. S.F. 49ers (from 13-3 Indianapolis) -- James Hardy*, WR, Indiana Record: 5-11 | Needs: WR, OT, OLB, DE, QB Previous mock selection: Same San Francisco needs a playmaker at wide receiver to take the attention away from TE Vernon Davis and pressure off QB Alex Smith. Hardy comes with some baggage and he needs some polishing, but no receiver in this class possesses a more imposing combination of size and natural athleticism. 30. Green Bay Packers -- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tenn. St. Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, OT, S, TE, PT Previous mock selection: Fred Davis, TE, USC Packers QB Brett Favre certainly would welcome the addition of a tight end like Davis, who can stretch the seam and generate yards after the catch. However, the team has a more pressing need in the defensive secondary, and Rodgers-Cromartie is one of the fastest-rising prospects in the 2008 class right now. The small-school product proved capable of playing with the big boys at the Senior Bowl, where he demonstrated outstanding versatility and athleticism playing both free safety and cornerback throughout the week. 31. N.E. Patriots -- Pick forfeited Record: 18-1 | Needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL depth Previous mock selection: Same The Patriots lost this pick as part of the penalty handed down for illegally taping Jets coaches from the sideline in Week 1. 26. New York Giants -- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC Record: 10-6 | Needs: OLB, CB, S, OT, DT Previous mock selection: Same The Giants are in need of an immediate and legitimate upgrade at linebacker, and Rivers is instinctive and athletic enough to contribute immediately on the weak side. They also could use a quick, explosive back who would complement current Giants power back Brandon Jacobs, so keep an eye on this selection. Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.
I dont really think ilb is a need, but how bout a rt, does mcshay really think clement is the answer?
Just a side note to the Dolphins picking Ryan... I don't believe Parcells will go that way for two reasons: 1. the team just blew a 2nd rounder on Beck and 2. The kid wasn't really given a chance (or an offensive line for that matter) to really show what he can do. He doesn't have the line, or the wide receivers or a solid running game to take pressure off the passing game. In the end, QB isn't their biggest concern, at least not this year. Perhaps they should worry about rebuilding around the QB and if its still a concern at the end of this year, go for Florida's own, Tim Tebow next year.
I agree. However, I also distinctly remember Parcells ripping Beck as an analyst, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's that enamored with Ryan that he'd take him.
