And anomalies happen in baseball. That's the point. The fact that it's in his contract year is likely nothing more than coincidence. You don't need to prove that every player does it, but you do need to look at the bigger picture if you want to claim that these facts are causally linked. In fact, this isn't even evidence that there's a correlation (never mind causation). I mean, if we assume that, by definition, a player will have one "career" year... you can't just grab the career years that happen in contract years, and point to that as the cause. (There's probably a - what - one in five chance of that happening? What's the average contract length in MLB?) What about the career years that weren't in walk years? What about the bad seasons by players in walk years? If you want to point to a walk year as a cause for a career year in one case, you need to be able to explain the other cases. And (I really need to go find the article) I believe the numbers show that there is no link there. Yes, some players have better numbers in walk years, but just as many do not, and just as many players have better seasons in non-walk years. Pettitte looks good so far. And they're knocking Westbrook around. Keep it up, keep it up.
Okay, I found it. Link to the article. If you go to the baseballprospectus.com article, click on the link embedded in the paragraph for the powerpoint presentation showing the full research. Below is the relevant section from the Baseball Prospectus site: Emphasis mine.
Pettite pitched great, maybe he was left in too long, but still a great outing. He leaves in the Bottom of the 8th, 1 out 2 men on and a 4-1 lead over the Indians.
We've pretty much pwnd them and the rest of the Central since the end of last season so.... not really that suprising... but I'm happy none the less
Nice sweep and the cherry on top is another totally blown relief appearance by Gagne. Now hopefully Baltimore can win it too.
4 back Gagne causes both losses. Couldn't be better. Oh wait, it can. Kevin Millar got the winning HR. Watch Boston slump now.
If we keep hitting the ball well we'll win tis division b/c w/ Mussina pitching better and Hughes pitching well we have a good pitcher starting every single night. It's just amazing the deficit is down to only 4 games in the division.
It's so hard for me to get excited about the division, just because I feel like we've been so let down this year already, but it's hard to contain some excitement. The Yankees have been impressive over the past month and a half. The turnaround is really something special. As Yankees fans, we've all "known" all along that this team was underperforming its talent base. As you pointed out, the resurgence of Moose, along with Hughes coming back healthy makes our rotation pretty damned formidable. With the MUCH improved bench, our offense is pretty scary now. I've already complimented Torre, but I'm going to do it again. He deserves a BIG hand for what he did yesterday. Firstly, putting Giambi in the lineup after his PH HR the day before. (Yes, I know Donnie told him to PH hit him to "prepare" him for Sunday, but it's still a good move, and deserving of credit.) Beyond that, his best move yesterday was bringing in Mo for 4 outs. It got a little tense there for a minute, but it was the right move. Rather than take chances with the pen (minus Chamberlain, who I give Torre MORE credit for for committing to sit him after work, regardless of the effect,) he brought in one of the best closers in the history of the game to seal the deal. We all know how much I've beat on Torre this year, and I've said every time, if he does the right thing, I'll give him due credit, and right now, he truly deserves it. He's managed this team back from a ridiculous deficit, and I couldn't be happier to be so wrong about someone. Speaking of being wrong about someone, Cashman deserves a big hand as well. He's put together a team that gives us hope again. Bringing in Betemit has been a bigger move than we originally thought. Obviously, he's better on both sides of the ball than Cairo. He also held onto our best pitching prospects rather than pull the trigger on a deal for Teixeira, serving the dual benefit of keeping our pitching, and keeping Phillips at first. This turnaround has been totally amazing. I'll just stick to praying daily that we continue to play at this level against everyone.
