Yankees/Orioles...7/27-7/29

Discussion in 'Baseball Forum' started by GreenMachine, Jul 26, 2007.

  1. MisterMoss

    MisterMoss PRO-American

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    In any case, I've noticed that Rivera totally sucks in nonsave situations. I've already been to 2 or 3 games where this has been the case, and then there are more like today. Thankfully, he's been pretty good in whatever opportunities he's had to save games.
     
  2. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    edit: double post
     
  3. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    friday was a save situation.

    if it was just today, allowing 2 runners to get into scoring position, I wouldn't have mentioned anything because one game with a 4 run lead is no big deal.

    but he nearly blew the save friday, and then today got hit again.
     
  4. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    I'm glad to know i'm not the only one. Anybody who can say with a straight face that they wouldn't be nervous with him coming in in a one run game would just be kidding themselves. We're just spoiled because he was lights out for so many years but he's not the same pitcher now that he was then.
     
    #104 Don, Jul 29, 2007
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2007
  5. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    Now I'm dreading the off day. They haven't played well all year after a day off. Hopefully they can break that cycle this time.
     
  6. MisterMoss

    MisterMoss PRO-American

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    Doesn't that count for June 28th though? :wink:

    All kidding aside, I took that into account. He's still been pretty awesome in save situations.
     
  7. MisterMoss

    MisterMoss PRO-American

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    That's very true. Rivera has made me uncomfortable this year. He's had a lot of close calls. Teams are staging rallying attempts against him. I'm not by any means comfortable, but he's getting results. Basically, i'm not interested in paying him an exorbitant amount this offseason.
     
  8. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    Yes, but as far as reality goes, time goes forward, not backwards, so we can't arbitrarily insert an event into a point in time. It's not realistic. When we sober up and realize that time goes forward and chronologically, that's the way it is, while recognizing that the stats count for a different day.

    :wink:
     
  9. MisterMoss

    MisterMoss PRO-American

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    Right on the money! :lol:
     
  10. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    You are bringing this up again, but I noticed you ignored the previous response I made (about what is "excellent").

    This is an example of perception trumping reality... probably due to the cluster of awful outings at the beginning of the year tied into the Yankees' comparitively poor record (and, therefore, similarly poor attitude/outlook by most fans). Did Rivera absolutely suck in those handful of games? YES!

    Rivera had a rough patch at the begining of the year, no doubt. Most relievers do when they're used so rarely. I'm not making excuses for him, but that's just the way it is. Lack of use correlates very highly with ineffectiveness in relievers. And maybe there were some other reasons invovled. I don't know. Point being, he was bad. Really, really bad. In April. Not now.

    If you look at Rivera's performance this year objectively, you will notice that - after that rough patch - this year is NO different than any other season for him. If anything, he's been even BETTER than in most years. Age WILL catch up to him eventually... but what you are seeing/have seen this year is not a sign of that age.

    His K/9? Above his career average.

    His WHIP? Just about at his league average. Take away his unusually rough patch over that four/five game stretch, and he's been better than his career average (which is a large enough sample size to conclude that it's not that he has "lost it").

    His OBA? Again, outside of that rough patch, he's been in line with his career performance?

    His K/BB? Career high so far this yaer.

    Seriously... please... just go look at his career stats. Look at how he has performed in the past. Put your biased and tainted perceptions of how you THINK he has performed aside and go look at the ACTUAL numbers about how he has performed. And then come back and tell me how you can say he's less effective than in years past.

    Now... on the negative side, his opposing BA is at an all time high, as is opposing OBP and SLG, but - again - if you take out that bad patch, he's RIGHT AT if not BETTER THAN career norms. I realize that bad patch still counts toward his season totals, but in terms of whether you should/should not have confidence in him, it should be very clear how that month was an aberration, since the problems disappeared. Or at the very, very, very least, you should not be concerned that Rivera has "lost" something that he is unable to get back. Obviously, he can still get it done.

    Mo's ERA in April: 10.57 (He was awful. No control... missing spots by a mile.

    May: 1.74
    June: 1.98
    July: 0.77

    His career ERA: 2.32

    Opponents' batting average:

    April: .333
    May: .189
    June: .240
    July: .217

    Career OBA: .248

    Now tell me how these past few months are somehow indicative of his decline, considering that he's been performing above his career averages. It just doesn't make any sense, unless you're reacting to - and ONLY to - your perceptions and feelings as opposed to the actual data. Don't let your emotions deceive you. That's what the stats are there for.

    If you don't want to "have confidence" in Mo the way you used to... hey, that's fine. Just please understand that it has almost nothing to do with how he has ACTUALLY performed, and it has more to do with your own personal feelings about how you think he has performed.
     
  11. nyjunc

    nyjunc 2008 TGG Bryan Cox "Most Argumentative" Award Winn

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    They played well after the break, this team hasn't played well the last 3-4 days so maybe an off day is needed this time.
     
  12. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    You're right. They did play well after the break and I totally forgot about that.
     
  13. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    Cappy, rather then quote your entire post I'll just respond to it here. Let the stats be damned. It's the perception that bothers me and he seems to get into trouble more then he ever has in his career. I don't feel like going through all his games this year to see how many times he has given up runs and still gotten a save but I would guess it's more then he ever has before. All I'm saying is he would make me very nervous coming in to save a one run game. I never was in the past.

    They talked about it yesterday and I would agree he needs to pitch more often. He says he wants to pitch everyday and I can't help but think that would make him better, not worse. He says his arm hurts after pitching on multiple days of rest and never hurts when he pitches every day. He needs to tell Torre that and not the announcers. Torre thinks he is helping him and Mo thinks thats hurting him.
     
  14. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    Speculation of Joba Chamberlain going to New York and pitching as a reliever gained traction on Sunday when the hard-throwing 21-year-old was removed from the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre rotation and added to the Triple-A bullpen.

    Chamberlain had been scheduled to make his second Triple-A start today in Rochester, but plans now call for him to pitch one inning of relief tonight, take a day off Tuesday, then pitch another inning on Wednesday.

    and...

    Phil Hughes agreed with both his pitching coach and his catcher: He could have been better on Sunday. But all three also agreed Hughes is ready for the big leagues.

    Making his fifth and likely final rehab start, Hughes pitched 6+ scoreless innings for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees on Sunday, leading the team to a 3-0 win against the Rochester Red Wings at PNC Field.

    Hughes allowed three singles and three walks while striking out four. He threw 91 pitches.


    He could have been better???...ok

    The Yankees can't possibly make a trade that will improve them as much as bringing back Hughes, Giambi, Chamberlain and Karstens...now all they have to do is find room for them.
     
    #114 Don, Jul 30, 2007
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2007
  15. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Mo should pitch every damn day, period. I've been saying that since the very beginning of the season. This is nothing new with Mo. He's ALWAYS said he feels better pitching every day. Torre is just doing it his own way, as usual. Regardless of the potential problems "his way" might present.
    ---------------

    Well, looks like Chamberlain is a reliver now. Okay, we need the help.
    ---------------

    Gotta love that 6 scoreless with 4 Ks "could have been better." I'll take his "could have been better" ANY day. Not that it matters. As evidenced once again this weekend, it's all about the lineup. If they hit, they win. It doesn't matter who is on the mound.
     
  16. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    That article went on to say that the long term plan for Chamberlain is still for him to be a starter which is great if they don't ruin him in the process. This guy could end up being a premier pitcher. Even better then Hughes. The problem with all of this is it reminds me of the experimentation Boston did with Papelbon and that almost ruined him.

    http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18642731&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=418202&rfi=6
     
    #116 Don, Jul 30, 2007
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2007
  17. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    That's fine. I'm not saying, "Don't feel that way." I'm just saying that your perceptions are not always lined up with reality. This appears to be one of those cases. What gets me, though, is when people prefer to trust their feelings (no matter how many times they've misled them or how wrong they've been) despite the evidence otherwise. It's a function of how powerful our judgments are in terms of our personalities... but it's also a flaw if you can't adjust your feelings based on the evidence.

    By not "going through all his games" your guesses are being misled by your perception. Quick search: He has given up runs and still recorded a save twice this year. In 2004, it happened five times. Your guess is incorrect.

    You can damn the stats all you want... just understand that by doing so, you are allowing yourself to make inaccurate judgments like the one above.

    And all I'm saying is that you are welcome to harboring this nervousness... that is obviously your prerogative... but it is unwarranted compared to past years. The difference is that this year he got off to such a horrid start that, combined with the Yankees' poor play, and probably his age, it is/was much easier to buy the misperception that Mo "isn't doing well." Or he "isn't the old Mo." And that's just not true.
     
  18. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

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    Ok, but since June 3rd (I'll throw out the beginning of the season even though it is relevant ) he has given up 22 hits in 20 appearances and taken 2 losses along the way. That can't make you comfortable.
     
  19. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Eh, I'm still not worried. In the ninth, there's no other guy I'd rather have on the mound. Papelbon's blown saves this year too. It happens.

    I agree, that perceptually, he's struggled a bit this year. However, he's still getting the saves. He's allowing more baserunners, but he's still not afraid to pitch to anyone.

    I think if he would just develop a changeup already, he'd be lights out for another 5 years, and no one would be questioning him. He's already defied age by still throwing 90+ every game. He adds a changeup, and forget it, all-time saves leader, no question.

    This is a subject I agree completely with Cappy. Perception can make you see things, but the fact is, Mo is getting the job done. Considering he's doing it against his admitted nature, I give him a pass.
     
  20. devilonthetownhallroof

    devilonthetownhallroof 2007 TGG Fantasy Baseball League Champion

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    Yep, a whopping two of them. :smile:
     

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