http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=2910089 Teams know they can't win with just defense Clayton By John Clayton ESPN.com (Archive) Updated: June 20, 2007 The Colts might have opened a new era by winning the Super Bowl this year. They are the first Super Bowl winner since the 1983 Raiders to not finish in the top 10 in scoring defense. In a league that usually evolves into defense-dominated games in the playoffs, offense carries more importance than teams want to admit. As the clich? goes, defense wins championships. While defense is obviously still an important part of the equation, a defense not accompanied by a top-level offense isn't going to get it done. And having a top-level offense starts with the quarterback position. To win a Super Bowl in the 2000s, you need a quarterback who can beat Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. The days of building a defense alone to win a Super Bowl ended at the turn of the century when Brady started winning Super Bowls and continued last season with Manning. Their presence ended a brief dark ages at the quarterback position that plagued the late 1990s. It sounds simple, but the stat to watch is points scored. If an offense can't score at least 21 points a game, forget about winning a Super Bowl. In the past four years, five teams averaged less than 20 points per game and still made the playoffs. Four of those teams were eliminated in the first round; the fifth, the 2004 Rams, got past the first round as an 8-8 wild-card team by beating a 9-7 Seahawks team in Seattle. The next week the Rams were blown out by the Falcons 47-17. The NFL competition committee gets worried when team scoring drops to an average of around 20 points per game. When that happens -- and it often does -- the league considers rule changes to add more offense. The most recent example is when the NFL tightened up the interference and illegal-contact rules against defensive backs. Throwing more flags for tight coverage provided a brief offensive spike. General managers countered by drafting more speed on defense, and to a certain degree the strategy is working. Teams that use the Cover 2 defense (such as the Bears) have acquired lighter and faster athletes who can cover more ground. The good 3-4 defenses also are finding quicker players in an effort to create a few more big plays. Perhaps the biggest reason the AFC has held an edge over the NFC in interconference play and the Super Bowl is because it has quarterbacks such as Manning and Brady who can produce points. It's hard to rank Ben Roethlisberger in the hierarchy of great quarterbacks after just three seasons, but he has led an offense that has averaged 22 points or better when he starts. Despite a motorcycle accident and an appendectomy, Roethlisberger ran an offense that averaged 22.1 points last season. His offenses put up 23.3 and 24.3 points per game in his other years as a starter. With Roethlisberger taking more control of the passing offense this year, it's not surprising that the Steelers are talking about getting back to the playoffs. Last season, 16 teams averaged 20 or more points. Eleven of those teams made the playoffs. Ten of the 20-point teams were in the AFC. Before last season, the Bears focused on being able to score the 21 points they tallied in their 2005 playoff loss to Carolina. If they could do that, they'd win. The Bears jumped from 16.3 to 26.7 points per game, finished 13-3 and reached the Super Bowl. Sure, Devin Hester's returns and defensive touchdowns contributed to that, but the bottom line is that they scored more points, and that made them a Super Bowl contender. It was also easy to figure out the Ravens and Chargers were going to be playoff teams last year because of the improvement of their offenses. Coach Brian Billick and the Ravens added QB Steve McNair, and the Ravens' scoring average went from 16.6 to 22.1 points per game. QB Philip Rivers boosted the Chargers' scoring average from 26.1 to 30.8. QB Drew Brees had an even bigger impact in New Orleans, helping boost the Saints' scoring average by more than 11 points (14.7 to 25.8 points per game) and leading them to the NFC title game. The teams to watch in 2007 that scored less than 20 points per game last season (and missed the playoffs) are the 49ers, Cardinals, Broncos and Redskins. They all averaged in the 18- or 19-point area and should be better on offense. If they can get three or four points better, they will be right in the playoff hunt. The Buffalo Bills are another team that could take a big step forward on offense. QB J.P. Losman looked great running a version of the Rams' offense last week in minicamp. With the talent on hand and improvement by Losman, the Bills could easily jump from 18.8 points per game into the 20s. But that improvement on offense might not be enough for a Buffalo team that lost three key defensive starters. Say what you want about defenses winning championships; the top teams in the league are getting better on offense. The Patriots have added receivers Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker to give Brady more targets. Manning and the Colts could score even more points if first-round draft pick Anthony Gonzalez works out as a slot receiver. Meanwhile, the Chargers added a deep scoring threat for Rivers by grabbing wide receiver Craig Davis in the first round. While I'm not predicting a year in which scoring will improve leaguewide, improving on offense will be key for a number of teams looking to move forward. A good defense alone isn't enough to get through the playoffs and win a ring. John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
The defense saved Manning during the postseason last year, the Pats 3 SBs were with great defenses, Tampa Bay's D was amazing, but not as unfair as the Ravens in 2000. This year was the exception with the Colts, but if the Bears won this article may not have been written. It still takes a great defense to win, not matter which direction the league is heading.
Which is amazing that people think Chad has to carry the team for us to get to a SB. If they fix the leaky defense, Chad is capable of leading us to a SB IMO.
I think our offense is going to be very strong this year. I think Clayton over emphasizes the offense thing just because he's obssesed with Brady and Manning. Everyone knows they are the best and when the appear in the big game all the experts come to the conclusion that it was because of them. NE had a VERY strong defense. Last year Manning had his strongest defense yet. The stealers also had a dominating defense. The only team i can think of that didnt have a strong D was St. Louis the year it was the greatest show on turf. But at that time their offense was unstoppable.
The Colts were no exception.Your post points that out. They were going to be another early exit from the playoffs, till Sanders came back, and the Defense started playing lights out.
Yeah "Professor" he did it all by himself, LT had nothing to do with it. Drew Brees, the guy Rivers replaced, acording to John had an even bigger impact. Brees definetly deserves a ton of credit, but how about Colston, Henderson, and oh yeah Reggie Bush. Like NDmick said, was it all Brady who won those SBs? Couldn't be the great defense those teams had, and the Ravens, steelers, and Bucs defenses were great too. If Indy's Def didn't step up the would have never made it to the SB. It's real easy to cherrypick stats for the purpose of an article
Can we score the 21 points needed to win a playoff game against another team with an elite defense? I do recall Manning bringing the Colts back against the Patriots in the Afc Championship Game and Brady keeping the Pats in it with Gutsy plays and horrible receivers against the Chargers. At some point somebody is going to have to step on our offense. We don't have an elite Defense. Just a good one.
Thanks to this article and those of many other brilliant sportswriters, I think I've figured out the key to winning a Superbowl. You can't have just defense - you need offense too. But you can't have just offense - you also need defense. However, contrary to popular belief, you can win the Superbowl with just special teams.
i think there's more to it than just fixing "the leaky Defense," in that our D isn't verging dominance. the secondary is getting there, but the Front 7 is a big question mark. so yes, at this point, Chad will have to carry us with the current D. i doubt he can do it. but that's not to say the D won't be one of the league's best; it's possible, but we really don't know, and therefore it's beyond just leaky. cheers
We actually don't even know if we have a good one yet. We probably know less about the '07 jets than many years in the past. Were we just a product of the schedule? Can we actually play with these teams? Who the hell knows. All i know is the defense was run all over by bad teams last year, so i don't think we can use the word "good" untill much later in the year.
If Revis turns out to be a stud and our DLine stabilizes i think we can hold our own with other elite Ds. Our Linebackers are pretty solid. RCB was the biggest weakness and that shaky line was killing our LBs.
I think just because of us having so many lb's that makes us solid. The dline on the other hand is up in the air. I'm just hoping that because we signed so many de's, that one of them has to work out.
Defense always wins out but in fairness the league keeps changing the rules whenever defense gets to far ahead of the Offense. The league has made Offense more critical than the game itself intended.
Every year some jackass at ESPN writes one of these articles about how THIS is the superbowl team thats changing the whole NFL, that from now on every winner will look just like these guys. Its ridiculous, and its not even an interesting read anymore. "The days of building a defense alone to win a Super Bowl ended at the turn of the century when Brady started winning Super Bowls and continued last season with Manning. Their presence ended a brief dark ages at the quarterback position that plagued the late 1990s." This is one of the most factually inaccurate and ridiculous statements Ive ever read in sports journalism. Lets talk about this"dark age of quartebacking". Starting in 1996, the superbowl winning quarterbacks were Aikman, Favre, Elway, Elway, and Warner. You can make an argument that every one of them will be in the hall of fame... Warners the only question, and while he didnt have a long career, the offense he led that year was one of the most ridiculous any of us have seen. These werent the days of "defenses alone winning championships", THESE were the days of big name quarterbacks and offenses carrying teams. As for the idea that Brady put an end to the trend of defenses winning championships... thats so factually incorrect that ESPN shouldnt be employing janitors who believe it,nevermind journalists. Bradys teams are the textbook examples of teams that won with defense, and most every super bowl winner this decade has done it that way; the Patriots three times, the Buccaneers once, the Ravens once... these are all teams that are in the conversation for best defense ever. Last year, the Steelers won with a dominating run game and... you guessed it, a suffocating defense. Even this year, Manning sputtered in the postseason, and would have been the perpetrator of one of the greatest chokejobs in recent sports history if his defense hadnt bailed him out. I almost feel like this article must be a joke. ESPN acts like they can write history however they want at any given point in time and nobody will notice, but most of us have been alive and not living in caves for the last ten years. Ridiculous and factually incorrect stories like this are a big part of the reason why I cant watch this damn channel anymore.
Terrific post, Discostu. It's true that just about anyone can probably use as an example any segment of sports and make a "trend" out of it. All of a sudden, this is the new wave because a recent winner makes it look that way. But still, as a Jets fan, I read this article asking myself at every turn, "If even remotely true, how does this apply to the Jets?" I find myself looking at Penny again and wondering if we can put more points on the board than we did last year. And maybe 22-25 isn't enough anymore. I'm pretty sure we've upgraded our running attack and I like our O-line and receiver corps, but Brady and Belichick have definitely upped the ante.
Still more importantly however is the need to score more points than your opponent. It just so happens that in every Super Bowl win, a team has outscored its opponent. :grin:
