According to a Football Outsiders blurb in the latest ESPN magazine (I don't have it online so I will recreate it here), in the first two rounds of the draft over the last 10 years, Guards have been the position with the most busts. There standard for busts are not cracking the starting lineup within 5 years. I don't actually think this is a good reason not to draft a player, but it is something to consider. Here is the list, the first percentage is starting in the 1st year, the second percentage is starting in the 3rd year, the third percentage is starting in the 5th year: OC: 72.7% - 81.8% - 90.9% TE: 42.9% - 78.6% - 82.1% DB: 44.9% - 70.3% - 74.6% DE: 32.4% - 63.5% - 74.3% OT: 51.5% - 66.6% - 72.7% OL: 49.0% - 66.0% - 71.0% WR: 27.8% - 63.3% - 69.6% DL: 35.5% - 60.3% - 69.4% QB: 24.1% - 65.4% - 69.0% LB: 37.3% - 62.6% - 68.7% DT: 40.4% - 55.3% - 61.7% RB: 30.2% - 50.9% - 60.3% OG: 30.4% - 56.5% - 56.5% Some observations: I'm not sure what OL and DL represent. It may be an average of all the positions or it may represent players with uncertainty in their projections like Blaylock or Arron Sears this year. Also, the gross amount of players drafted at that position are not taken into account. For example, over the past 10 years I would estimate that fewer than 10 Centers were selected in the first two rounds which would mean those who were selected would have been outstanding and skewed the percentages. Finally, the author does not mention whether or not players who are forced into the starting lineups as rookies or sophomores and then flame out are included as successes because technically they cracked the starting lineup within 5 years even if they eventually became busts. Comments? ---- Also check out this other article I found on FO.com while looking for more info on the above data. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/04/ramblings/nfl-draft/5047/ I haven't gotten through all of it but it basically shows the frequency that a position was selected by a certain team in the last 5 years of drafts.
I guess you can show stats to prove just about anything. But I agree that guard is not a position that most teams feel a big need to draft in the first round. But the video I have seen of Blalock shows a large man with quick feet who is huge around the midsection. From what I have read he has the type of personality in a player that Mangini looks for. We have a glaring need at RG and RT. I also believe he could play RT or RG but he may be better suited for guard. I was very much against taking a center in the first round last year and we see how that picked worked out. Realistically until we can say that we have good lines on both sides of the ball and plenty of depth on both sides of the ball I'll be pro drafting any lineman. Once we have both lines in place than we can use high draft picks on cornerbacks and wide recievers.
It's Blalock... :grin: Eh, I really can't put too much stock into that if we/the FO really like the prospect. That doesn't convince me to avoid Blalock. And also, Blalock also plays OT, so his versitility is a key to him being drafted at #25. Nice stats though... Very interesting how well Centers do. Good find.
Honestly all I need is to look at every team and see who is likely to fall. If everybody in the League ranks Olinemen, safties and runnigbacks Low, that is the postion I am going to have to past on if I am not picking in the top 7. Why waste another Firstround pick on a position you can draft in the 3rd round or day two and find guys just as good or sign as post draft FA's???? Makes zero sense.
I am not a huge Blalock supporter even though I do think he will be a good player...just not with the Jets.
I don't want to see the jets go OG in round 1. We have much more glaring needs at DT and CB, they need to be addressed first.
if Revis [somehow] falls, he would be my #1 choice. Otherwise I want Ross/Blalock/Grubbs, -OR- trade down into the late first/early second round
For all those screaming that we take a DT or CB, which DT or CB do you think will be available when we pick? Its almost guaranteed that Blalock will be there at 25. When we talk about DT we are looking for NT.I am not sure if we will get a DT who can make an impavt immediately.Remember our own DRobb, hasnt been too great Ryan Simms, Jimmy Kennedy etc havent done too well either.I cant argue the selection of Aaron Ross, but I still think we can get Josh wilson in the 2nd round so why pick Ross in the first when Wilson will be there in the 2nd. I am not sure we can get Grubbs or Blalock in the second round. Again did anyone remember the ridiculous contracts that were signed by Linemen this off season? Derrick Dockery, Steinbach, Hutchinson, Leonard Davis etc. We can never pay these guys when they become free agents, so why not draft them.We have had good luck with Mangold and DaBrick why not keep that trend going with O line.Kendall will not play forever and Moore should have competition.
I don't know about those stats-- I went back to 2001, and it looks like David Bass is the only one who isn't a starter, but is still in the rotation. Fonati was an injury guy, but was good prior. Others taken in the first 2 rounds were Steve Hutch, Chester Pitts, Kendal Simmons, Shawn Andrews, Eric Steinbach, Chris Snee, Justin Smiley and Logan Mankins. Any one of those guys would start over either of our guards. I am even more sold on Blalock after actually looking at the success from the last 6 years-- not only are those guys starting, but they are all good players at worst- some great.
How is guard not an important position in this league? Most teams invest heavily in a QB and a RB and we say that two of the positions that pave the way for the RB and protect the QB are not important?At least not important enough to draft in the first round? Who are the guards that will be available for us to draft in the third round or later as some have suggested? I think we have to improve our running game. I dont see us improving our running game with the same linemen or guards we had last season, I dont think that the third rounder or later round pick some are suggesting will beat out Kendall or Moore. Mangold and DaBrick steeped right in and started and Blalock /Grubbs can do just that too.Why darft a guard in round 3 or 5 or later and sit him on the bench , knowing that we need to continue to rebuild that position? I will hold my peace on this issue until April 28th and 29th.
I can see CB, but what DT are we going to draft at 25 that fits the 3-4 scheme? Justin Harrell doesn't fit nor does Demarcus Tyler... and those are the best DT's after Alan Branch who will be gone inside the top 15. OG is a need just as much as CB or DT is. The BPA at 25 could likely be Justin Blalock...im not all for Justin, but when you think about it...how good would the Jets offense been last year if they had any success running the football? LT- D'Brickashaw Ferguson LG- Pete Kendall OC- Nick Mangold RG- Justin Blalock RT- Anthony Clement That looks nice...
Exactly, look at the players taken highly over the past few years and you have the majority as starters, and even more importantly a few of them as studs. I'm not sure what exactly that 50% number is for, but I know that high guard picks usually apply to quality starters.
Those numbers really surprise me. I'm more in line with Green Hurricane and Big Cotch - guard strikes me as a really safe pick. And Blalock, in particular, strikes me as a safe pick. Smart, durable, dependable, self-motivated. Sounds like a pro to me. However, I think any GM worth his salt has to be willing to go by what he sees, not what history says. So take that, football outsiders.
Here's a story on who we are drafting: Blaylock in the 1st Zach Miller in the 2nd(if he makes it that far) Josh Wilson with our last second NFL draft good guys msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6645194
sorry my post count is too low to have the link. feel free to start a new thread with that post since I can't do that yet either
