Who knows how it will go, but at this point, I think I’d be fine with either Bailey, Bain or Reese at number 2, or imagine if we could trade down a couple spots and still get one of them…any of them would fill a need for us and fuck me if I can tell you which one is going to turn out to be the best of the lot…
I literally just typed this into google and got these results back regarding Reese player comparisons. Based on the 2026 NFL draft discourse surrounding Ohio State linebacker/edge Arvell Reese—who has been described as a "boom-or-bust" prospect, a "freak-athlete" with limited college starting experience, and a "Kyle Pitts 2.0" type prospect with incredible highlights but inconsistent production—several former players match the profile of high-rising prospects who failed to live up to their draft spot: Vernon Gholston (Ohio State - DE): Perhaps the closest direct parallel in terms of Ohio State defensive prospect hype, Gholston was a "freak athlete" who flew up boards into the top 10 after a stellar 2007 season (14 sacks). After being drafted 6th overall by the Jets, he never recorded a single sack in his three-season NFL career. Isaiah Wilson (Georgia - OT): Selected 29th overall in 2020 by the Titans, Wilson was a "fast riser" due to his physical traits. He became a significant bust, appearing in just one game and leaving the league in two seasons due to off-field issues. Trent Richardson (Alabama - RB): A top-3 draft pick in 2012, Richardson was seen as a guaranteed superstar who would transition perfectly. He had incredible physical talent, but his production did not translate to the NFL, where he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry over his short career. Charles Rogers (Michigan State - WR): Taken 2nd overall in 2003, Rogers was lauded for having size and speed similar to Randy Moss. He was considered a sure-fire star, but his career was ruined by injuries and off-field struggles, lasting only three seasons. Dion Jordan (Oregon - DE/OLB): Drafted 3rd overall in 2013 by the Dolphins, Jordan was a versatile hybrid athlete whose draft stock skyrocketed due to his speed, much like Reese's current scouting report. He failed to establish a position or consistent production, largely becoming a draft bust. Troy Williamson (South Carolina - WR): Selected 7th overall in 2005 to replace Randy Moss, Williamson had speed but struggled with his inability to catch, failing to meet the massive expectations of a high first-round pick. Why They Didn't Pan Out (Similarities to the "Reese" Profile): Like Arvell Reese, many of these players relied heavily on their "freak" athleticism to dominate college competition but lacked high-volume experience or failed to adapt to pro-level technical requirements. Reese's 2026 scouting profile specifically notes he "relies too much on pure strength," has "less time on task and experience," and saw his "production... dip" as the 2025 season progressed.
You’re totally right. Guards and safeties affect the game the same way a QB or pass rusher does. Totally equal.
If a guy did NOT dominate in college, how likely is it he will dominate in the NFL where the WORST players he'll go up against are BETTER than the best he saw in college ??? Sorry for the typo, I meant Bailey as a choice at #2 for a LB, not Reese. As I recall, Ghoulston was hit-or-miss in college too....he had games he dominated (like against the LT guy Miami took at #1) but then against mediocre talent he did NOTHING. I want CONSISTENCY and I want COLLEGE PRODUCTION. I don't want inconsistency and potential. Every "moving up the draft ranks" flop we've ever taken -- from Lam Jones to Dewayne Robertson to Ghoulston -- has that last 72 hour surge that bites us in the you-know-what. Take the safe pick. Because if the team struggles in 2026, even with all the picks in 2027 and a shot at a really good QB, AG and DM might find their survival resting on the 2026 Draft and the guy they take at #2. If he appears to be the linebacker equivalent of Zach Wilson, Woody is not going to get pushback from the media or fans if he cans them both.
All of a sudden Daniel Jeremiah and Peter Schrager have us going David Bailey. Hopefully that’s a smoke screen to get someone to trade up and take him, for multiple reasons. But the more time goes by and the more film that comes out and the more analysis I read, I really think that would be a mistake. He’s a big nothing in the run game. Like I posted yesterday, teams are running the ball more than they have in almost 2 decades and we are going to spend the second overall pick on someone that can’t help us in that area. No doubt my mind he can be an absolute stud rushing the passer but I could easily see a scenario where he is not on the field on first or second down. Whereas a guy like Reese, if he hits his potential he’s a three down player and does a little bit of everything and does it at a high level. I like the kid so obviously I’m going to root for him but it would definitely sting a little bit to watch someone else benefit from taking a chance on the other kid that has all the tools to be an elite player.
I’m with you. Reese power against the run going after OL is impressive, and he can roam the field on all plays. No TE, never mind WR is going to block him on run or pass plays. Bailey has had one roll his college career, rush the passer, so we don’ know if he can develop his game and become a three down lineman on AG hybrid formations and hold his own against the run. Reese is pure power, Bailey seems to be more finesse. I think there is smoke floating all over the place by the experts. First it was Reese, Reese, and nothing but Reese and now most are shifting to Bailey. Here is a case where AG needs to really help Mouge figure out what is the best fit on his new defense.
You sound like ME!!!!! In my opinion, Bain should be the pick of the three. Whether he was hitting the quarterback or holding the edge he was a dominant player in every facet. No flashes in the pan and multiple games long disappearances just production! Not only that, as the games got bigger, his production grew. I really don’t know what more needs to be said… I’ve stated many many times over, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia… These teams can afford to take a guy on potential. Their teams are strong enough to overcome a screwup pick if it does not pan out. The New York Jets, a pick like that, if it fails, only draws a spotlight to the error because the team is so poor in its entirety.
A simple, but obvious, question for you… What about the New York Jets gives you the impression this team has the luxury of drafting players based on an unquantifiable potential? I’m serious on this one… Do you believe this team is in a position to take the number two pick and use it on a player that is literally a 50-50 shot? He could be amazing or he could literally shit the bed. we’re not talking 80/20% probability here . We’re not talking even 70/30%… This is, quite literally, a 50-50 proposition that he may or may not be successful at the NFL level. He certainly does not have the college game tape let’s say of a player like Bain or Downs but he has the combine of a freak. Just wondering…
I don’t think that is his point at all, not to mention that you have to harvest best available players consistent with what the draft gives you. For any given team, a weakness in one area can very well affect the game just as much. Cincinnati with arguably the best pure QB in the game has been besieged by piss poor offensive lineman play putting him in harms way. For us our IL inability to stop the run, and our dreadful safety performance has destroyed the defense. So hell yes, both of those positions are seriously affecting the game as much as an edge. Winning teams know how to beef up all position equally, and treat them with equal value. Look at what New England did in one year, just by strengthening the basics, they sailed right at top of the division and quickly overcame your Bills with the best QB in the division, but not enough other pieces to prevent him from going hero mode every play. There is a hell of a lot to be said about a good draft way beyond what you call premium positions.
Looks like Daniel Jeremiah and Peter Schrager are reading my posts lol. I just feel that Bailey is the more complete player, had the production, is just a physical freak, has variety of different pass rush moves that he executes with precision. His FBI as a Stanford kid is elite. At Stanford he is the only guy on the D line and got double teamed on almost every single play that I watched. The opposing quarterback knew where he was at all times and the coaches game planned to shut him down. He still managed to have some excellent games. this film at Texas Tech is truly a work of art. I saw him use six different pass rush moves in one game on two different offensive tackles. He just gets how to play.
The point of calling a position “premium” is because you can’t win without it. You can win without the others, even if it is difficult. You also know there are premium positions based on how much they’re paid. They are not all treated equal, as much as you’d like to argue. They affect the game more, they’re harder to find, you must have them to win, and they get paid more. This is not just my opinion, this is widely accepted as nfl truth amongst GM’s. They’re referenced all the time in their press conferences. You can go against conventional wisdom if you want, just know that the people who are experts in it do not share your same philosophy. The entire league operates differently from what you say.
You missed my point completely. But please carry on with the same line.The fact this draft does not have too many super stars at premium positions particularly at QB means nothing. You draft for improvement at all positions. There are plenty of holes to be filled. But you can continue to argue it. Premium positions or not even with those filled you don’t win shit unless you have a solid team without any major holes. I already gave you examples but you continue to regurgitate the same BS. Everyone on this site knows what is considered a premium position, which by the way has significantly changed thru time, but the fact you select one in that category does not mean you hit on it. FACT. You don’t need the best of the best at all premium positions, short of may be QB. What you need are solid contributors across the board. Dallas is the classic example of overspending on premium positions and never winning crap. Thanks but I’m done with this nonsense take.
I don’t understand why you keep acting like saying there are premium positions mean the other positions don’t matter. They do. You just don’t typically want to spend premium picks on non premium positions. Selecting an off-ball linebacker, guard or safety at #1overall is not a wise decision, even if he is a solid player. That’s why it is not done. Again, you can be sick of this analysis, but you are the minority in thought on this, not me. And yes, you want good players at all positions, I’ve never said to ignore them.
If we’re gonna knock Reese down a notch because he played with other great defenders we should do the same with Bain though…
I like EVERYTHING you said here. I believe it, too. So tell me...how come the guy didn't put up the numbers playing against competition that is worse than 99% of the NFL people he'll be going up against ?
There is a lot of smoke right now. And it's not even smoke from the team, it's just that all key pre draft activities are done, and there are still two weeks left before the draft. There is just a lot of lull, and they are just blowing smoke from their ass. I don't believe anyone knows what the Jets are leaning towards. From all accounts we've seen all leaks have been plugged. At this point, and especially after watching footage by Blewett and Sabo, where they actually pointed our extremely well where even last 6 games where Reese didn't pop on stat sheet, he did his job extremely well, I am completely onboard with drafting Reese. I would be very surprised if Reese is not the pick. I do like Bailey and Bain a lot too, but upon close review given the production was there throughout the year for Reese, the type of athlete he is and his age, he should be the consensus #2.
Well, I’m not smart enough to really get into the details but IMO we are comparing a 4 year starter in Ruben Bailey, who play solely as an Edge to a two year starter that is 20 years old , played multiple roles from setting the edge and playing heavy run by rag dolling OL as a freshman, and they changed his role on year 2, more to Edge and got 6.5 sacks in his first attempt. Bailey had may be 4 in year one, 5 in year 2, 7 in year 3 and we all know he exploded in year 4. He has 4 solid years under his belt and that is his primary role. We don’t have a clue how good he is at setting the edge and play the run. As for OL they play against same comparable caliber, and all indications were that one of Reese’s strengths is the incredible power and explosiveness with his hands. To me it boils to what role does AG want to fill. A more versatile beast with less maturity and raw talent that has yet to develop fully as a pass rusher but plenty powerful to set the edge, play the run and the pass, or a pure top Edge, compared by many as a better version of MacDonald. I think either way you get a great player but need wise strikes me as Reese is the more versatile choice.
