I said absolutely nothing about Simpson - or Mendoza for that matter. I also said nothing about limiting QB selection to the first two rounds. You do realize that between 2000 and 2020 the shiniest egg turned out to be the best quarterback only one third of the time, don't you? Or, put more succinctly, it was one of your "low probability flyers" who reached the pinnacle of performance twice as often. It also may not have happened in year one by forcing a guy onto the field when he wasn't ready in year one. It wasn't great coaching that made the guy who replaced Bledsoe the king of his era; it may have even been simply a matter of having sufficient time to grow.
Here’s the thing Borat. If we are #6/7 who’s to say 1st or 2nd overall are willing to deal the pick. We are 2nd overall now and the Raiders aren’t moving off the Mendoza pick even though we could offer a sweet package. You need 2 to tango and rarely do those top picks get moved. There are just no guarantees. I would feel much better taking Simpson if he’s even there at 16 and then taking Mateer next year and let them battle it out just like Cousins/RG3. Also, if an injury happens you have a guy ready to go and wants to prove himself.
we can add that KC had Alex Smith at the time who had played fairly well for them (and as an aside he was QB1 in his draft when Aaron Rodgers slid to late first round)
Absolutely, add Drew Breese as a second rounder and the list goes on…. There are only really a few 1st overall prospects that won the SB. There are only a few 1st overall prospects that even lived up to the hype… we have to increase our odds at a FQB and the only way is to keep taking a qb in the draft till you land one.
opinions may differ and I respect your football knowledge but to me the idea of relying on a team willing to trade a high pick is extremely risky. That team probably sucks as well and is in need of a FQB. Also you might be trading the farm for a Marcus Mariota or Trey Lance — fools gold I may be wrong but I attribute the QB pipeline to green bay. Opportunistically took Rodger’s when Favre was still playing well, and then did it again w Love. In their case they were dealing from a position of strength and didn’t need a QB but took ones when the value was too great to pass. We don’t have that luxury. I’ll admit I’m not smart enough to say if Simpson is the right guy, but it’s clear we need a better approach to finding and developing that position. I’m hoping reich and company have an eye for the right type of talent
Look, it's not about 1st overall. I just showed you legitimate data that there were about 100 QBs drafted late second round or below in the last 10 years. There is one really good starting QB out of that: Dak. You could argue on Brock, but I don't think so. And Dak did not win the title, but it is irrelevant, he is a good QB. But these are not the odds that you want. If you want a QB, you need a high pick, period - around mid second or better. And the higher the better. And this is not to say that he will hit, but it is much better than 1% chance you get otherwise. It's just statistically speaking. But taking a QB every year with a high pick and not allowing the one you had to even develop for two years, while also not having a high pick for another position year after year just doesn't make sense. Also, how many times did you see multiple 1st round QBs taken back to back to back to back by the NFL teams until they hit? This is not a practical approach, it's only theoretical. Yes, there is Josh Rosen, who had a lot of playing time, played like total shit, and Arizona had #1 overall next year and they moved on. But other than that, it just doesn't happen for a reason.
Your scenario is the definition of strength (Green Bay) vs. fear (NYJ). This team has been so bad for so long that everything they do, at the quarterback position, is done out of fear and desperation. At some point, the Band-Aid has to get ripped off. The fact is, this team, especially the fans, expects to draft a quarterback that is going to be a world beater and lead us to the Super Bowl…er, playoffs it’s why everybody is clamoring for the first pick in the draft because it’s assumed that this is the only way to get a quarterback with a sufficient talent and skill set to perform at a ridiculous level. Right now, the team needs to draft for competency. It’s like I said, in my other thread, this team needs to get to competent. The feeling being there is no choice but to draft a quarterback high, regardless, if you or I think that player should be drafted wherever, to put competency on the field. The only thing that I know for certain is take that fucking combine and all it stats and throw it in the trash! We are not going to find our franchise quarterback, or at least a competent quarterback, by relying on the bullshit that the combine pumps out. turn on the tape and watch the players play. go back, watch the game, tape, Anthony Richardson looked like he didn’t belong on a college football field let alone an NFL field. However, the moment he jumped out of the building at the combine the Indianapolis Colts stupidly wasted a fourth overall pick on the kid. The entire league shit all over Brock Purdy, regardless of the fact that he had years of solid game, tape, and look where he was drafted. No amount of combine is going to tell you how accurate a quarterback is, what kind of leader the quarterback is or how well that quarterback reads defenses and adjusts on the fly while the play is unfolding. I am a better reviewer of defensive players, simply by virtue of having played defensive positions for years. Quarterback is a complete unknown to me outside of what I see, with my own two eyes, on the field. One of the few non-on field things I’m looking into lately is whether or not a quarterback has competition at the college level. These “anointed” kids need not apply in my mind. As @Rockinz stated, I want no part of a guy that’s afraid to compete.
Absolutely 100% on the money response. Some of the rational provided on this forum by some, over and over makes absolutely zero sense to me. Selecting a QB is not an exact science at best, and when you don’t have one you take shots on the draft each and every year based on your best analysis and value. You don’t take one just because is there, but if you see potential and value you do. It is the number one and most important investment. Tomorrow might never come. Betting all the eggs on next year basket is a pipe dream just as inaccurate as this year. If you like someone with potential this year, and you believe is good value you take him. That is absolutely the most important risk reward move in football. So many are blowing this Manning thing way out of proportion based on pedigree and not on actual production is crazy.
Yesterday, Aaron Glenn said Geno Smith is the Jets QB who will lead them to the promised land. So not much point in posting future QB opinions here.
I am in complete agreement that we may not be able to trade up next year. Which is why I was pretty mad when we won two meaningless games by special teams after it was clear we were not making play-offs, which took Mendoza away from us. Now we are in extremely tough spot, there is no obvious solution. Next year, say there are 2-3 blue chip QB prospects better than Simpson, you need a top 2-3 pick to get them. I do not think we will have top 3 pick. Yes, Glenn should have been fired and he was awful last year, but he can call plays on defense at a mid level. I also think Reich was a good hire an Geno has something left in the tank. I do not see us getting top 3 pick outright. Whether we can trade up or not is not certain, but there is a probability we can trade up, depending on how many blue chip QBs declare and how many teams up top need a QB. With Simpson at hand I do not think we will be trading up EVEN IF there is this option. So, it's about weighing in the probabilities. If you feel good about Simpson, we can draft him and take 2027 possible QB selection off the table. I personally lukewarm here, so my preference would be to get someone like Tate and hope we CAN trade up next year over taking Simpson this year and forgoing 2027. But if Tate or another blue chiper is not there, I would be willing to take a shot at Simpson. With #2 pick this year in 1 QB draft, there just isn't a good solution available. Lots of cons in each option.
I believe you are talking about me. I agree it is not exact science, yes. At the same time i have provided evidence that getting a QB beyond mid second is about 1 in 94 shot in the last 10 years. If you still want to take these odds, good luck. Simpson does not fall into that category and I am not against taking him. Just that I have some concerns about him where I would prefer a blue chip player at another position. But if not available, I am not against drafting him. If we do though, it's very unlikely we will be spending a high pick again on a QB in 2027. And I already mentioned the odds on a pick that's not high...
This exactly. Pretty much every example being spit out. other then Rosen (and like i suggested earlier that is the 1st overall pick wiggle room), allowed a guy more then a season to develop before essentially committing in a different direction. The draft a QB every year concept, even if it means spending/stacking multiple premium picks into the position, is essentially the equivalent to the bro logic that doesn't see the problem in getting engaged while still being in headspace that will be planning to take a chick home from the club the following weekend. You either love Simpson enough to make the commitment that should reasonably come with the pick investment, or you don't. That's is ultimately what a 1st round pick decision on Simpson should boil down to. This i'm-going-to-have-my-cake-and-eat-it-to spin people try to put on that just realistically increases the chance of a bad team never *hitting* on a QB, AND comes with the double edge cut of ending up with less overall premium talent in other areas.
I think it doesn’t happen because of money and egos more than it not being practical. The conventional way of drafting a kid throwing him in the fire and giving him a long leash also has just not worked. Geno, Darnold and Wilson prove that. I think we have to try something outside the box. What do we really have to loose? A mid 1st rounder? Big deal. This franchise needs guys wanting to compete and earn every minute of playing time. Once that culture change happens we will have something to cheer about.
Teams do it all the time. Maybe not exactly like draft one every year but what’s the difference from us picking up ARod and his salary cap hit when we had Wilson. Or Vikings picking up Kyler when they have McCarthy or signing cousins to an huge cap hit and then drafting Penix or D Jones when you have Richardson. Cap space is an asset as well just like a pick. The difference is you have a talent you like enough to take and see and if something better comes along you do what’s best for the franchise. You are creating competition to see which cream rises to the top.
Every two years I would understand. At least you evaluated the guy for two years, not just as a rookie, like Minny did, and JJ totally sucks i year 2, so they effectively moved on. Same with Zach, by the time we got Rodgers we knew he was not FQB. Jones came after 2 years also. I think two years most of the time you know. Not always (guys like Sam needed more), but a lot of times you do. But 1 year? That's rare. With all that said, you have me convinced if Simpson is there at 16 to take a very hard look. I still think I would take Tate (even in a trade up) if I had the choice, but I do think you made a good argument to get Simpson at 16, even if we might not get a QB in 2027, unless we finish bottom 2 or 3.
Daniel Jones is a fucking house. He's 6'5 230 and he has absolute wheels as a QB. Alex Smith was a pretty big dude too and was a proven stud coming out of Utah in college. Simpson is nothing like either of these guys in terms of physical stature or college performance. Where are some of these comparisons coming from? They're not based in reality and they're not even close to accurate. You don't just take a QB to take one. That's just silly. You take one if he's got the tools and he's shown out in college. Right now Simpson has more tools than college track record going for him. And his tools aren't that great if we're being honest. This is why I wanted Chambliss so bad. Regardless of the arguments about his lack of height which I get, at least his game tape and college performance was top tier nationally. Simpson is nothing like that. Chambliss is a flat out baller. All that said, the Jets have Geno starting and I assume Taylor is still with the Jets this coming season but maybe someone knows for sure more than I do. There is no need to just draft a QB in hopes he may pan out when he has huge question marks like Simpson or Nussmeier or others. Those top 4 picks that the Jets have really should be spent on filling all the holes on the team. The Jets need multiple studs out of this draft, not just one or two. Those top 4 picks should all be that. Enough with the projects in the early rounds on a roster so thin on high end talent.
I just read that we are linked to Tanner McKee again. Apparently Philly wants a second. So, let’s say we trade 44 for McKee and he competes with Geno. Do you think that would stop us from drafting Manning or Mateer or your boy Moore the following season? I don’t think so. M/M/M would compete with McKee and I think that is a healthy situation for the Jets at QB. I don’t see a big difference between McKee (44) and Simpson (16) besides all the contract stuff. They are different styles but about the same talent level. Now, here’s where it gets tricky because McKee is a FA next year so he could walk and you burn 44 for 1 year of service or you tag him. Simpson you have for 5 years to compete with MMM. Interesting to think about really
That in bold and you can make it 50 points higher. It is ALL about that. NONE of these guys ever want to admit they were wrong. It kind of blows my mind because perfection doesn't exist. Hell, close to perfection doesn't exist either. But these guys, a LOT of them are incapable of ever saying "I was wrong." I don't care about the money part. Before mid-first year was in the books, EVERYONE could see Zach Wilson was a waste. EVERYONE! If you didn't see it you are blind. Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance, Akili Smith (there's a name!)... My goodness, the list goes on and on and it's LONG!!! In fact, hell, GM's of other teams can't even admit to themselves they were wrong. If their own draft board says a guy was slotted in "X" position then it MUST BE RIGHT! Why? Because THEY built the draft board! It's why guys, like Wilson and Lance, knock around the league for years! Green Bay has this shit locked down to a science. Draft a guy and, NO MATTER WHAT, that kid SITS, and SITS some more, and SITS some more. Fuck, Rodgers was what, 3-4 years in the league before he saw anything outside mop up duty. Love the same. Hell, a number of kids they drafted and sat went on to other teams and did better than what the Jets have trotted out. Let's face it, the New York Jets have made it a SCIENCE in who NOT to draft at the QB position and how NOT to manage them! Could you imagine how on FIRE this board would have been if they sat Sam Darnold for, what, 2...3 years, not a single snap outside some blowout mop up duty? SAT him...to not see a single meaningful snap in a couple years. The fans alone would have committed murder so why in the hell wouldn't the organization handle their business the same way. Something about NY that simply lacks patience. I digress. MOST of these kids that come out as QB's NEED to sit and learn. VERY few come out that can be good in a year. Even FEWER that can just hit a field and are lights out. This is why "we" as fans whine and bitch about tanking and getting the 1st pick in the draft etc...yada yada. I ask the honest question, does it really fucking matter? With the last 4 GM/HC'ing tandems, you could give the NY Jets the 1st pick in the next 10 drafts and I can almost guarantee you they'd fuck up the QB position 8 of those 10 times, thoroughly, and the other 2 we'd be LUCKY if we got a playoff run out of one of them, let alone a SB. Now, bring one of those well known "teachers" on board, such as Shanahan/McVey et. al., and that number probably changes. Problem is, they've let this go on for so long, thanks Woody you fucking asshole, that none of those types of people will EVER come here. Not only is this team trying to hit the over $1 Billion lottery on QB but they are also operating on throwing a dart at a 1/2" balloon when it comes to finding rooking GM's and HC's who can ASCEND to being a Shanahan or McVey type. There I go, ranting again....
No, actually I wasn’t. Someone else to be honest. But to that subject, the fact you personally dont like Simpson is neither here nor there, because there are many analysts including Warner who I respect greatly, that thinks if he is given a chance to get more exposure, practice and time, he could be the best QB on the draft. He obviously has insufficient body of work, but has played in a much more full blown first, second, third read NFL type of offense than Mendoza, while running for his life a hell of a lot more. So who knows. One third of the time the first QBS selected turns out the best in the long run, so there is that. Further, there is absolutely nothing wrong with taking a shot in the second or third run run for a potential candidate, odds or not, because he could very well be a decent back up at worst which we desperately need.
I would not give 2nd for Tanner, so the whole premise is not really there. But with vets you can evaluate a lot faster than rookies. Also I even agreed that I would draft Moore/Manning next year with our own pick. I just don't think we will have one that high. But suppose we have #7, and there 2 blue chip QBs: Moore and Manning. Maybe 3. And one of these teams is willing to trade down. Are you giving up multiple 1sts to trade up with Simpson on the roster showing some flashes?
