I don’t think he’s rising so much as the questions around Reese/Bain/Bailey are valid enough that taking a surefire top tier ILB might be a better move. I wouldn’t mind it at all if we take him.
12-18 per team is good odds that there would be a kid at 33 someone has a 1st round grade on. Not all teams are equal when it comes to scouting
Don’t like scenario 1 Scenario 2 I’d be excited Scenario 3 I’d be hoping for a miracle and excited scenario 4 Reese Simpson McNeil-Warren Fields
the number 33 pick is like gold. Not only do you have a chance to get a 1st round talent with 2nd round contract restrictions/scale but everyone else in the entire league wants that so it's very attractive in the trade market, especially for teams that traded out of the 1st round, but still want a guy they were targeting Think about the Falcons, they lost their first with the trade last year. They are sitting at no. 48. If they moved from 48 to 33 they could feel like they still had a 1st round pick and we could fleece them. With something like a 3rd and/or a 2nd next year just to move down to 48
Second pick now seems very probable to be Reese, 63% odds (Bailey 22, Bain 8, Styles 4). For the second pick I am thinking more and more that if Lemon and Tate are within striking distance, to trade up some from 16. We can recoup some of the assets moving down from 33, but we really need #2 WR, and even Mitchell as #3 is a question mark. He is more like 3.5. Yeah, we can sign some vets, but I highly doubt we will be able to secure a good starter or two in free agency. We had bunch of vets last year who sucked. We need real #2 talent at WR position, which I don't think we can get in free agency. After Lemon and Tate there seems to be a massive drop off in WR talent in the draft. I think we have to pull the trigger if there is opportunity. Unless something like BTJ trade happens, which I have no idea if the rumors we hear are real or not, and how much does Jax want for him, but let's assume for the sake of argument that this is not realistic. I would try to move up if opportunity presents itself.
Agreed, we need a WR 2 desperately. Even if we trade up for Lemon I wouldn't mind another vet like Kirk. Hell, even if we trade for BTJ I would want a rookie in the top 4 picks.
No, there’s not. I like to follow this after the draft when the GM’s give their press conferences, and most of the time they are asked how many first round grades they had and when it stopped, and it’s in the teens on number of grades and early 20’s when the last one went off the board. Most teams have the same players on who’s a fist rounder with an extra 5 or so for variance on medicals. Thats why every year there’s so many trades up to the 20-25 spots. Teams are grabbing their last player with a first round grades. And that’s in a normal draft, this is one of the worst drafts in a long while. No one’s making it to 33.
Yes, a vet and a high level rookie would make sense. The only thing is, this draft IMO has two 1st round talents at WR: Tate and Lemon. After them we are entering the territory of Boston, Conception, etc... If not BTJ, I think we need to score Tate or Lemon, even if it means trading up. The vet we will sign is not going to be a real starter as pickings are slim. Tyson is very injury prone and a bit a of gamble feels like. We need to come out of this draft with Reese and Tate/Lemon, even if it means a trade up involving #44.
Of course, it is possible, but what would be a success probability for any one of these VS Lemon/Tate? I think Lemon/Tate individually have a much higher probability of success rate over any of Boston/Conception, etc.
Ughh. I don't see it with Fields. I like Brazzell more if you're looking for a true X WR. I also feel like #16 should be Lemon or Tyson. No guard here. No swing for Simpson. Only Downs, Styles or Love fall here do I get off of the WR.
I want a WR badly but I would absolutely not trade up from the 16th to get a WR. If we can not find a jewel at 16th without having to waste precious ammunition I don’t know what we are doing. If there is a run of top WR before that it only means that a premier player in another position is dropping down to compensate. IMO we are starting to psyche ourselves that there is a massive drop after the tops two and I don’t believe that is the case based on everything I read.We are looking for a strong number 2 to compliment Wilson. Rams and others seem to pull WR talent out of their ass every year in even later rounds, non withstanding analysts rankings . We just have way too many needs. My two cents
Not sure I'm on Fields too. If we're looking for an X go for Boston who can do a whole more than just be the X. He'll be there at 16 but not sure he gets past the Bills for 33.
The crazy thing is I don’t see it with Lemon. The kid was schemed open. Tyson I like but don’t the injuries scare you to take him?
Mostly Lemon. I just don’t get the hype. I’m not seeing how he’s the consensus 2/3 guy. Lincoln Riley schemes his WRs open. Meaning that everyone else in the play is doing what they are doing for a 1 read pass. This is why Kyler, Baker, Williams all went #1 but then struggled in the NFL because on tape it looks great but in reality it’s all LR coaching.
i would sooner trade down than up.....acquire more picks at 16, grab the OG ....then another OG in rd 2......that leaves you picks 2 and 33 to go DL/LB and WR/CB.. after june 1st, some WR will shke out , unless he goes FA before the draft
According to many evaluators there may be 10 or so prospects with 1st round grade. So I am not sure if there will be a jewel or premier player at another position at 16. There could be a solid guy sure, but ideally we need to come out of this draft with a true WR2. What if say Tate lasts till 10, and Cincy does not need a WR like we do but has a few other solid guys on the board they like. So we give them #16 and #44 (total value 440) and they give us #10 and their 3d rounder #72 (total value 436). We still have two picks, but instead of 44 and 16 they will be 72 and 10. Heck we could even trade down from 33 and use the capital to trade up into the second using Cincy pick. I just think it's really important to get a high probability WR2 in our situation. So, we could do both, trade up and down the board to secure that, but it starts with a trade up from 16 if these WRs slide to 10 or so. If we get that pick from Cincy #72 in the above scenario, that's a good spot to draft OG as well...
Yeah I get we need a good guard, but I think we need a WR way more…I would not want to see pick 16 go for a guard
i can't fault your logic.....based on past experience, i am not certain that it will work out the way you project... it's like that year where they had Favre targeted in round 2 , only to have ATL trade in front at the last minute to draft him.... we had ron wolf as GM, only to leave for GB and end up trading with ATL to get Favre there..... and some youngest posters here wonder why some of us refer to a curse.....
