I don’t think the combine is useless and data does matter to an extent. I just don’t like when a player’s stock changes too much from what it was when the games were fresh in our minds and the players were actually doing shit in games. I think there is sometimes a tendency to overthink things. I get it, the stakes are high and this is never an exact science…there have been plenty of players who excelled in college but then flopped in the pros…and that will always be the case. I’m no expert, nor am I a scout or a GM, but I just like to watch and trust the eyes. I also place a LOT of credence on how a player shows up in big games…I think great players play great in the brightest moments…those are the kinds of guys I like, and the ones who disappear in those moments I want no part of. I remember feeling that way about Gholston when he was invisible in the championship game and I wanted no part of him…which of course meant we were gonna draft him But back to Bain…the dude dominated a lot. He looked pretty damn good to me. I wouldn’t worry too much about the arm length…he’s been dominating with those arms against players he’ll face in the pros. If it were a very big difference then ok but an inch or so I just don’t think will mean too much. Will he be a Myles Garrett? Probably not. But he will be solid and dependable. I get the talk track of “worthy of the second pick” but that always depends on the draft you’re in. This year, there is only one QB and after that, there are no other guys who pop out as absolute freaks all around… Bain seems to me to be a good pick at two overall with a high floor. Given the state of our roster we need good players who will hit the ground running and set a tone. He seems like a good fit for that
I understand why some people are comparing Bain to Shaun Ellis, because Ellis was as good against the run as he was against the pass, maybe better. Bain doesn't have that prototypical edge rusher body with the albatross wingspan, but I think he knew it early on because he is as much technique as he is physical ability. My primary concern for Bain as a pass rusher is probably more about how his pursuit speed translates against NFL tackles, but he is really good at taking smart angles to the ball carrier. Not sure about the 2nd overall though, he's a guy along with Tate that I might be more comfortable if they could drop a few spots with that pick.
Yeah I mean if you could trade back a few spots and pick up an extra draft pick sure I think k everyone would love that outcome. And in a draft where we have so many holes all over the place and the players available in this range are all kind of closely rated then it makes sense…drop back and you ca still get a guy who would help fill a need between Bain, Reese, Bailey, Downs, etc then yeah… but…that same reason is also why there probably won’t be a lot of great trade down offers So yeah either way we have so many needs that we can take our pick of the litter at two or we can trade down a bit if someone gets hot for a guy and still get a good player
This is where I'm at. I have no doubt Bain will be good, but I don't know if he will be great. I'm taking a swing at 2 on a guy that I think could be great and for me right now that's Reese. If the biggest concerns about him end up being valid he still ends up being a fantastic run defender that has close out speed and can cover the flat and won't be caught in a mismatch against a TE. If the biggest concerns about Bain end up being valid he's Shaun Ellis which is a really nice floor but less impactful to me than Reese turning into a solid LB.
You spent the first half of your post criticizing me for apparently misinterpreting what you said, and then spent the second half of your post confirming that you said exactly what I thought lmao. Plenty of players dominate college and do nothing in the pros. You should know that being a Jets fan. To think that any player is immune from a complete and total evaluation as an NFL prospect just because they played well at the college level is ridiculous. Why dont you spend some time looking at who the Jets have selected in the top 10 of the draft the past 25 years and do some reflecting on how they dominated in college and couldnt cut it in the pros, then maybe you'll understand why evaluating a prospect for the NFL game doesnt just stop at "did he play well in college?"
I don't need to do any of that because the eye test rarely fails me. Oh really? Like Zach Wilson? I know exactly who the Jets selected in the top 10 in the past 25 years and if you really did then you wouldn't be asking that. There have been many head scratchers for sure and moreso they were picks who didn't dominate in college and were more of the shorts and no pads workout wonders. Thy definitely didn't have the rock solid resume that Bain had dominating the best in the country. That is the antithesis of Bain who is a proven stud and a future pro bowler. Book it.
And that is where we differ the most… This team can’t take a chance on someone who might be great. They need a whole team full of good to great players. They can take a chance on potential and upside when they’ve finally crossed the .500 in wins on any form of consistent basis. I think, if you pulled all the talent evaluators in the league, Bain comes up as a sure thing more often than does Reese or Bailey. Yes, those two may end up having more upside however that’s only if that upside is realized, and whichever coaching staff is able to squeeze that out of them. As it stands now, I do not have faith enough, especially on the defensive side of the ball, to expect any of those Jets coaches are going to extract some untapped potential. Bain, I feel, steps on the field right away and doesn’t leave it for the next decade. JMO…
I disagree with Downs. He is far and away the best safety to come out in a long, long time. Better than Hamilton who had a monster year. He will be elite and the leader of the secondary. Meantime the highly touted pass rusher the Giants picked instead of Hamilton is on the trade block. I hope we target players that make a difference and elevate the team, players that demonstrated top effort on tape and played against tough competition, regardless of position. Those with a huge upside and a high potential like Reese which often disappear on games is a hard pass for me too.
Well I guess the big difference here is you see Reese's entire value as upside and potential whereas I see his floor being just as high as Bain's just in a different way.
They’re definitely different builds and styles for sure, but overall I think they’re going to have similar outputs. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the arm length resulting in Bain not being great, but as a pass rusher part of your game requires you to keep the OT’s hands off of you similar to boxing. If an OT can get his hands on you and extended, it limits Bain’s ability to control the OT and move off of him. At the NFL level every little difference matters, which is why I place him in the Sean Ellis range of production. I don’t see Bain putting up elite sack numbers year over year.
That’s a fair point, I do think Downs is the best overall player and he’s who I keep going to as the safest pick at 2.
And we know how well the fanbase handled that when we had a stud DT that didn't put up big sack numbers for the last 5 years...
This down and out jet’s fan says that downs should be our second pick. Unfortunately, this Quarterback class isn’t outstanding other than Mendoza.. However, something in my brain says we might pick Ty Simpson here.. Who knows? All things being equal,and there are no guarantees …you don’t get considered a second pick unless you’re at Elite status, right? OTOH I have seen Downs play in big games and he comes up with big plays sacks and interceptions Please sign this beast
My gut says Downs gets picked within the top 5-6. I have a feeling it will be a tough call for Moug between him and Bain. I’m reminded that AG and half the DC staff has an extensive secondary background so Downs might be very high on their list. That and the fact that our secondary couldn’t sniff an interception might weigh heavy on their minds. He definitely would be a massive upgrade to the secondary.
If this team drafts Simpson at 2, I'll literally quit the NY Jets on the spot. Having voiced that, I certainly wouldn't lose any sleep if they drafted Downs at #2. This whole discussion about "value" at whatever spot drives me batshit crazy. If a kid is drafted at 2, shows up at training camp and then proceeds to start every game for the next 10 years and hits a couple all-pro seasons along the way then I'd consider that a damn successful pick. Let's voice it a different way, we've all been kicking around Bain, Reese and Bailey at 2, right? So, question...of those 4 players, to include Downs, which of them potentially lasts to 16? Do all 4 go in the top 10? In my mind, if you come away with 2 of these 4, it is unequivocally irrelevant who was drafted where. By the time any of these kids are ready for a new contract the CAP will be so much larger that resigning one or both (assuming they both hit) will be irrelevant as well. I've quoted Bill Polian a number of times and this is another of those instances. He really is adamant it's about the team. If the TEAM values a guy at 2 vs 16 or wherever then who gives a shit what some draftnik or any other GM of another team cares about. If said player drastically HELPS your team, picking at 2 or 16 or 32 or 44 or wherever is thoroughly useless the moment the 2026 draft is over. No one is going to care what "value" was gotten, 2 or 3 years from now, if the kid is an all-pro and a cornerstone of your team.
I would add that it would not surprise me if the Jets move down a few picks for a GM that is madly in love with Reese, grab Down and another pick Spot on. Simpson should not be a first round pick, and most savvy talent evaluators have him at best being pick in the last quarter of the first round by some QB savant HC willing to sit him for a year or more. If the Jets pick him at two I loose all credibility for Moug and I completely give up on the incompetence of this organization.
The way I see it, if someone climbs up or down significantly, because of combine results alone, that's a red flag. But when we are talking about three consensus top 5 guys, I agree with @BroadwayAaron that we need all available info for #2 selection. And combine has its small place in evaluation, and might make a couple of spots difference when 3 guys are as close as Reese, Bain, and Bailey are now.
We need defense, but I would love to come away with one of the top three receivers in round one. I think that’s as big a need as any
