KEY MESSAGE 2... There remains a high amount of uncertainty with the development and track of a coastal low Sunday into Monday. However, there has been a clear trend to the NW the last 24-36h in the low track with ECAIFS, AIGFS, the GEFS, and to a lesser extent the GEPS. The operational GFS and GDPS (Canadian) the last 2 to 3 runs have a low track that has been close enough to see some snowfall across the region, but not a major event. Bottom line, there has been a lot of jumping around of the guidance and this is likely due to complex interaction between multiple streams/upper lows embedded within a longwave trough across the western half of the country. This could still be the case another 24h or so before we see better consistency amongst all of the guidance. Given the uncertainty, the forecast has continued to follow the NBM. NBM probabilities for 6 inches or more are generally less than 15 percent, highest across LI. Even advisory level snows get no higher than 20 percent. That being said, the guidance being all over the place has kept these numbers low. The system though is very much worth watching because of its potential with incredible deepening of the low Sunday afternoon and night. Pressure falls around 24 mb in 12h in the 00Z GFS and GDPS. The potential for high winds and heavy precipitation is a concern should a more western track become the consensus.
GFS model is by itself on an island ,,,still time as this is 3 days away but my guess right now is that the winter trend continues and that this is a miss for us,,,,,,I could be wrong but as of this moment nothing other than the GFS leads me to believe different so either the other guidance will start shifting towards the GFS and all the other models buckle or more likely the GFS caves to the others
Well Well Well,,,,,,other guidance has begun caving to the GFS who woulda thunk it ,,,,,in the words of Garth and Wayne it is GAME ON !!!!!! Best keep your eyes on Sunday kids
Players on the field ,,,pieces are almost in place ,,,,,,,the weather models have ALL trended in the right direction since last night ,,,,I sure hope people are paying attention = 48 hours to go and as of right now this storm threat appears to be VERY legit
Let's fucking Stop!!!!!! Monday 10:45 am flight out of Newark. What shall I do with my flight. Please let me know Uncle C
Ahh good to see you Sir it is nice to see that someone has a fu@king pulse as I was getting tired of typing to myself ,,,,Brook,,,,,how long can you wait to change because IMO you probably aint going to be flying anywhere Monday morning ,,,,,there is still time for changes this is not written in stone yet and we are a little less than 48 hours from the start time but as of right now the models are showing that it might be puking snow Sunday Night into Monday,,,,,if you cant wait change it now if you can wait then wait as long as possible
Good to see you too uncle C. United issued waiver so I can change it anytime but I am bringing folks from other regions into our North Carolina office so if I have to fly Saturday to avoid the drama I might have to do just that.
I travel Raleigh-Durham area monthly uncle C. Do you know the city of Cary? That's where our offices are
After coming back to normal 60s during the day, and 40s at night , we’re getting 2 more below freezing nights Sunday and Monday: would you guys mind coming down and getting your drunk weather off my lawn. Thanks.
Brook I am NOT familiar with Cary,,,,,,,my kid is in Charlotte I was down there twice this month already and I will be heading there again next week,,,,,,,too bad you are too far away as I would have treated you to Mickey Dees,,,,,,,,,,,,in other news safe travels sir and enjoy the snow everyone
This storm is the real deal and I hope that people take the warnings seriously ----I will just leave this here and I will see myself out URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069-070-211900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 11 and 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds are expected Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and afternoon hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 421 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 WHAT HAS CHANGED... Blizzard warnings have been issued for Long Island, New York City, and the Connecticut coast. Winter storm warnings have been issued for interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Blizzard conditions are expected along the coast with near-blizzard conditions across interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey Sunday night into the first half of Monday. 2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday. 3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt. .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area. A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h, tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday morning. This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter, will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time. Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area, highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS, and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the higher totals are not out of the realm possibility. Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end from west to east during the afternoon hours. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.
I mean @CBG - I love you but dude can't you give us some good news ever. It has been a snowy season already. When will snowy season end?
Brook, when all is said and done this winter and there is still some winter left but as of now the #'s might make it look as if we got a lot of snow this season but IMO it was a cold and dry winter for the most part-----yes we got that 1 big storm but that was 3 weeks ago and it has just been ridiculously cold so that snow and ice stayed around. If you want to feel better know this = we dodged 2 very big bullets as those 2 other storms were very close to being the real thing for us but one went out to sea and never came together and the other hit to our South. Sorry Brook There still appears to be some snow chances in our future ( maybe they don't pan out ) but those remain to be seen as first things first we will have to deal with this Blizzard ! There will be many issues with this storm as the winds will be cranking but I suggest that people make sure the generators are working because there will be power outages and check those sump and other pumps because flooding will definitely be a serious issue to the people living near the water. I might post some more updates later but we are pretty much in nowcast time,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,btw the snow totals that we are seeing on apps and other places might be on the low side as some models have showed between 2 and 3 inches of liquid and at 10 to 1 ratios or in this case they might be better than that when the storm gets cranking and also the dynamics of this storm are amazing as some models show areas might get 3 or 4 inches per hour ,,,,,,ps long duration storm also,,,,,,,,,,,add in snow drifts and we all get the picture,,,,,,in other news I doubt that Mic key Dees will be open for you or anyone else,,,and it looks like this could be a 4 day weekend for people,,,,,,time will tell,,,,,hang in there everyone
Brook, I know that you are currently in a fragile state and I just did not have the heart to tell you,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,GFS says " keep your eyes on next Friday " just sayin
Okay. Moved myt Monday flight to 8:10 PM. Do you think flights will be able to take off from Newark Airport by then? Also, returning on Wednesday night. Saw snow on my weather app for Wednesday night. Friday not a problem. But for God's sake, enough with snow. Geez
