Glaring Breece Hall stat frames his true value for NY Jets Breece Hall's true value to the New York Jets can be summarized a specific stat, helping contextualize the team's looming decision. By Michael Nania Feb 16, 2026 - 9:18 am EST Analytics Should the New York Jets retain Breece Hall? It’s one of the biggest questions looming over the team entering the 2026 offseason—and it will likely be the first domino to fall, setting the stage for everything that is to follow. If you ask some experts, such as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, the answer is a resounding yes. Others contend that the Jets have too many holes on their roster to sign a running back with no Pro Bowl appearances to one of the league’s richest salaries at his position. Hall is an impending free agent. As a player with a high talent level but an uncertain future, he is a prime candidate for the franchise tag, which is projected to cost $14.5 million for running backs this season. Another option is the transition tag, which is cheaper at $11.7 million, but would allow Hall to negotiate with other teams, while giving the Jets the right to match any offer. The NFL’s franchise and transition tag window opens tomorrow, Feb. 16, and closes on March 3. This means Hall’s future in New York could be decided very soon. As we ponder how the Jets should handle the 25-year-old running back, one glaring stat offers clarity. The stat that summarizes Hall’s value It can be difficult to understand how valuable a certain running back truly is. What are we supposed to look at? Their rushing touchdowns? Total rushing yards? Scrimmage yards? Yards per carry? All of these stats are extremely dependent on variables outside of the player’s control. Some backs play in more favorable environments to be productive than others. Few running backs have been in a less favorable environment than Hall since he entered the NFL. With four consecutive years of below-average-at-best quarterback play, Hall has consistently been the focal point of opposing game plans. It did not help that his offensive line was also subpar over his first two years, although the Jets have remedied that issue since 2024. For these reasons, it is critical to evaluate running backs using contextualized analysis that accounts for the expectations of their situation. This is the best way to understand how much value a certain running back brings to the table. One of the best metrics for this particular endeavor is “yards above expected”, courtesy of NFL Pro. It uses GPS tracking data to estimate how many yards a player should be expected to gain on each play based on the quality of their blocking and the positioning/angling of all 22 players on the field. This allows us to evaluate all running backs on essentially the same plane. If they consistently enjoy fantastic blocking and light boxes, they are held to higher expectations, and vice versa. In 2025, Hall excelled at creating yards above expected as both a rusher and a receiver. He accumulated 142 RYOE (rushing yards over expected) and 99 YACOE (yards after catch over expected), bringing him to 241 total yards over expected. This placed Hall seventh among running backs, joining some elite company: Bijan Robinson, ATL (514) — 257 RYOE, 257 YACOE James Cook, BUF (389) — 358 RYOE, 31 YACOE Derrick Henry, BAL (370) — 340 RYOE, 30 YACOE Jaylen Warren, PIT (305) — 181 RYOE, 124 YACOE Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (298) — 167 RYOE, 131 YACOE Jonathan Taylor, IND (274) — 195 RYOE, 79 YACOE Breece Hall, NYJ (241) — 142 RYOE, 99 YACOE Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (234) — 176 RYOE, 58 YACOE De’Von Achane, MIA (231) — 242 RYOE, -11 YACOE TreVeyon Henderson, NE (158) — 149 RYOE, 9 YACOE It gives us some fascinating context regarding Hall’s value to the Jets. There is no doubt that Hall was one of the top 10 running backs in the league this past season. However, there is a large gap between him and the top tier of the position. Hall was closer to zero yards above expected (league average) than he was to top-ranked Bijan Robinson, and he was 129 yards behind third-ranked Derrick Henry, about the same gap between Hall and the 25th-ranked running back (Blake Corum). And this was a down year for the top tier of the running back position. In 2024, Saquon Barkley (634) and Derrick Henry (631) exemplified what peak dominance at the position looks like. Hall’s 2025 total, as good as it was, did not even reach 40% of Barkley’s 2024 number. On the projected $14.536 million franchise tag, Hall would have the fifth-highest cap hit for running backs in 2026. If the Jets signed him to a long-term contract of the same value, it would be the fourth-highest salary for running backs. Hall is an excellent player. But is he quite dominant enough to be worth a top-five salary at a non-premium position for a team with so many other holes? There is no obvious answer to that question, and that is what makes Hall’s situation so complex. Some would argue yes, while some would argue no, and both have a fair case. It’s up to the Jets to decide their stance. The key is not just to understand what Hall’s value was in 2025, but to project what it will be in 2026 and beyond—which is even more challenging. Hall’s cloudy outlook Hall sits firmly on the fence between “elite” and “very good” at the running back position. What makes him even more mystifying is that there are valid reasons to think he could take a sharp swing in either direction moving forward. There is a world where Hall trends down. On top of his spotty injury history, Hall’s 2025 season was actually a substantial spike compared to a year earlier, rather than the continuation of a sustained trend. In 2024, Hall had a very mediocre season as a rusher, posting just 2 RYOE, although his 110 YACOE was still impressive. So, we aren’t sure yet whether his 2025 season is something he can do year in, year out. But there is also a world where Hall trends up and affirms his place in the top tier of running backs. Hall has never played in a favorable situation before, which is something the Jets will try to remedy with their ample assets. If they can give him a competent supporting cast, his impact could skyrocket. After all, even Saquon Barkley did not reach his yards-over-expected peak until his elite talent was combined with a pristine situation in Philadelphia; his RYOE numbers with the Giants were nowhere near as outstanding. When a running back with elite playmaking ability steps into a situation where the base expectations are high, his impact increases exponentially. Plus, it is worth noting that Hall is set to play under an offensive coordinator in Frank Reich who has historically targeted running backs at a high rate. This would make a huge difference for Hall’s cumulative impact after he saw a career-low 3.0 targets per game in 2025. New York’s Hall decision is anything but simple. His resume places him in a gray area that does not yield a clear solution amongst the options at the Jets’ disposal. We know he’s good, but we don’t know precisely how good he is, or more importantly, how good he will be. But he’s certainly due to make a lot of money, whereas the Jets have a plethora of holes to fill that are more important than running back. So, if they are going to keep him in any capacity, be it franchise tag or long-term, they had better feel confident that he will at least replicate, if not improve upon, his 2025 impact. At the same time, letting Hall walk is hardly an easy call, either, as his 2025 numbers assert that his impact cannot be easily replicated by your average replacement-level player. If there were an obvious call here, the topic wouldn’t demand so much conversation. There is a valid argument for every available path. It’s up to the Jets to make a judgment call on what they believe is best for the organization. https://jetsxfactor.com/2026/02/16/ny-jets-breece-hall-stat-frames-true-value/
The guy has averaged 4.3 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. Its sad to say but after his injury he lost that extra burst that made him so dangerous his rookie year. I'd let him walk this season, or at best transition tag him, because there is no real point in planning to keep him long term unless he has very average contract demands.
I still think he is a good back. But his behavior kind of showed he didn't want to stay with the Jets. So I hope we don't tag him and let him walk unless any of you think somebody will trade for him if we tag him.
very hard to find a durable 3 down running back. Letting him walk just to blow a draft pick on a lesser player would concern me
Key 2025 Statistical Insights Volume Leader: Hall's 243 carries and 1,065 yards in 2025 were both personal career highs. League Ranking: His 4.4 average in 2025 ranked 25th among qualifying halfbacks. Efficiency Metric: Despite a lackluster offense, Hall generated 124 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), averaging 0.7 RYOE per carry, which ranked 9th best at his position. Explosive Playmaking: He recorded 26 explosive runs (runs of 10+ yards) during the 2025 campaign. Breece Hall's 26 explosive runs (carries of 10+ yards) ranked 12th among NFL running backs during the 2025 season. While he ranked in the top 12 for total explosive carries, his efficiency in generating these plays was even more impressive; his 8.64% explosive run rate placed him in the top 5 in the league among qualified starters. Efficiency Gains: Despite a drop in target volume compared to previous years, Hall averaged career-highs in yards per target (7.9) and receiving success rate (59%) Explosive Rate: Hall's 8.64% rate was nearly identical to league leader Jahmyr Gibbs (8.64%) and outperformed other high-volume stars like James Cook (8.74%) and Jonathan Taylor (8.05%) in frequency per attempt Long-Distance Threat: Hall was one of the most dangerous vertical threats in 2025, tying for 3rd among RBs with three carries where he reached a top speed of at least 20 MPH. We had shit offense, and he still managed to look good. I am not sure sure where you got 2.3 numbers, but the guy is clearly above average running back, probably right below absolute top tier, and with actually functional offense can look even better. Transition tag is the way to go I agree, but whatever the mechanism is, we cannot open up another hole by getting rid of the best player we have on the roster. Tag Breece and focus on other needs. This one is just too obvious. If we let Breece walk what little hope we might have for the future of this team (which currently lies with Mooge) will be gone. It'd be that stupid of a move.
At the moment, Chiefs are 50+ million over the cap. Sure, they will make cuts to get under, but my guess if Breece wants the biggest bag he can grab, he'll go elsewhere.
I am in the Keep Hall camp. No question to me. Letting good players go, and in this case it would be literally for nothing, is not how you get better. It’s just not. To me, precisely BECAUSE we have so many holes is the best reason to say let’s not create another one. No way Allen and/or Davis gets us what Hall can get us. We’d have to replace him. And on top of that, it’s not Iike we are hurting for cap space. That would make it a tougher call if we were. But without Hall, we have only ONE guy the other team has to even think about, in GW. That’s it. No DC’s out there are sweating how to defend Braelon Allen or Mitchell or Davis or Metchie. I get we will most certainly get more talent in free agency and the draft, but to me, I hate creating holes when you don’t need to. I was not in favor of trading away Q and Sauce either, for the record, as here we are with holes to fill on DL and in the secondary. Shocker. But at least those guys got us great returns. Letting Hall go for nothing would not be a smart move. I hate how this team has a history of just making excuses and talking ourselves into why it made sense to trade away great players…oh, John Abraham gets hurt too much, oh Keyshawn is selfish, oh Jonathan Vilma doesn’t fit our D, oh Demario Davis is only a mid-level player, oh Revis is selfish…the list goes on and on and on and I’m probably leaving out a few also. But in ALL those cases, those guys went on to have a lot of success elsewhere, and we just continue to be shit….and yes, I do recall that the Abraham pick turned into Mangold so at least we did that, but all in all, it’s not the way to get better long term and sustainable. ESPECIALLY when you are a team that has been as absolutely and consistently terrible in the draft as we are…it feels like the few good players we draft, we find a reason to get rid of them. So to me, while Hall hasn’t put up the numbers some of these other backs have, you do have to look at the situation…I think Hall has played with much worse QB play, OL play, and coaching than just about all those other guys. We still don’t have a QB, but our OL is improved, and if Reich can field even an average offense depending on who we get at QB, Hall will look a lot better. Now the one wildcard is what Hall wants…as a free agent, he can say fuck you I’m not signing here for whatever number you want to offer and there’s not much we can do about that other than franchise or transition tag, and we should absolutely consider those if it comes to that, but it feels like if you’re at that point, a disgruntled player being forced to stay doesn’t seem to work out all that great…if we get to that point, it’s almost like you have to try a tag and trade scenario to at least get some value…
Oh for sure he’ll have WAY better options than us. And he hasn’t given the “I really like it here and want to stay vibes” Can’t say I blame him…if I were in his shoes I know I would bolt the first chance I get…no way would I sign here. It just feels like we’ll have to tag him To me, I think this is a big moment for Mougey…I’m very curious how he will handle this…he could have traded Hall to KC for a 4th at the deadline and he didn’t, so what is he planning on doing now? Very curious to see it play out
Tag please, said it from the beginning to let him walk after not taking the 4th that was on the table is malpractice, again. Let him walk and it's just another stain on Glenn and Mougey’s reputation.
There's not a single good reason to NOT put the tag on him. He's our second best skill player on a team that has two above average skill players. Probably shouldn't let him walk in general let alone for free. Tag him, work out something longterm, when he inevitably doesn't want to sign here longterm you trade him for something which makes wasting a pick on an RB more palatable. Unfortunate outcome but you can't force a guy to be here if he doesn't want to.
No, it was a right call not to trade him for a 4th round pick. He is our top 2 player. A 4th round pick is a dart throw at a back-up and occasional starter. Just look at our 4th round picks picks last year. Hall is way better than that and transition tag is only 11 mil, not some crazy amount. And most likely no one will give him more anyway, so we can match any offer. It was 100% right decision not to trade him, and now we continue that same path with the right decision being to extend or tag him.
I hit 2 instead of 4 on the ypc - my mistake. But I disagree with you and the other posters about his value to us. (Especially that losing him will cause all hope for our future to be lost, which is a baffling statement to me). Another hard fact about the modern NFL is a great majority of RBs decline after their rookie contract. Young legs rule these days, and Breece's injury history suggest his second contract will be a let down. On top of that, he just doesn't have the field vision to be a releighable top back. There has to be the grand canyon for him to find a hole, which is a bad trait. Especially in crunch time. And it all comes down to value. If we tag him we get a 14.5 million one year rental. I don't see him wanting to stay in NY beyond next season so his price will likely be higher to resign here. The TT is a whatever thing because this is a "whatever" year. If we TT him, he will for sure only be here one more year. Whats the point, unless we think we could still get a 4th for him next year? More importantly this is year 1 of a rebuild. It would be a great value to rollover as much cap as possible into next year. This is just a building year, there is no point in spending more than we have to. Take Emmit Johnson from Nebraska at 44 - its a steal. The guy had no blocking and still thrived using speed, strength, and vision. And he has better hands than Breece. At 44 he will cost us about 2 million a year for the next 4 years - and be a genuine RB to build around. That makes the most sense for a true rebuild,and he will almost certainly be a great value for his draft position.
Losing him per say will not cause our future to be lost. What I meant was that keeping him is so obvious, that a good GM should easily be able to make this decision. It's not close. If Mooge lets him go, it is so stupid of a decision, he is entering JD territory for me. That means we do not have a GM, that's the part I meant. My hope is if Glenn fails again this year, Mooge could be the guy to guide us out. If he is not even smart enough to do something obvious, that hope is lost. As far as tag, tranny tag is 11 mil, not 14. His value is likely 10 mil or so, so perfect. And it does not have to be rental. We can tag him twice, two years in a row. It will likely force him to negotiate a longer term deal.
I don't think it would be a bad move for the GM to get rid of Breece. I've laid out the logic for it in my last post. And I don't think what we do at RB this season is going to be a massive factor in our rebuild. Okay lets look at it this way. Yes we have had bad offenses. But good RBs still overcome that from time to time, and our run blocking was the best we've had in years. With that said, when was the last time you saw Breece take over a game. When was the last time you thought. "well we were struggling until Breece got going". The answer is, never, he never takes over the game like genuine top RBs do. Only in his rookie year did he ever flash that. He's just as likely to run into the back of our left guard on 3rd and 1 as he is to break out. How many years in a row do you need to see it? Yes he is decent, but he is not the guy to take us where we want to go. It makes perfect sense to cut bait with him sooner than later, and upgrade the position with younger talent while building bank for a playoff run. We are rebuilding and he isn't a core piece. That's another thing, people acting like he is the a core player in the offense. That's not because he is a true top RB, its because we have so little talent. Cash out and build a true playoff team.
Recent history kinda proves you wrong. Cook. Barkley, and Taylor all have been excellent after their rookie contract at pick 44 we need to fill a hole, running back isn't a hole
There’s plenty more too, those are just the big names. Conner, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, soon to be Etienne. A lot of the old tropes need to die. “Never take a running back early” and “don’t pay running backs” are two of them.
