I know it’s Valentines Day season, someone always falls in love with a player after the combine & pro days. If we are to believe that Mendoza is a lock at no. 1, than the no. 2 is very attractive in the trade market because teams will view it as THE pick where you could grab the best player in the whole draft. I would not be surprised to see trade interest from Tennessee #4 (Saleh prone to fall in love), the Giants #5 (need defense in BAD way), or Washington #7 (view themselves as “close” but need defense) …
Yeah I agree that trading down is our best bet. I like Reese as the pick if we stay at #2 but I'm not very confident about it. It's just not a great draft to have the #2 pick. There's no Nick Bosa or any other obvious choice at the pick.
Well then I guess we pray someone finds one of those dudes jumping WAY up above the other two on their boards, Im just saying I dont see that happening with this crew. And Im extremely content if the result is Reese at 2 because there were no trade back partners.
That bolded part is my only problem. Exactly who and how do you, or anyone for that matter, determine "ceiling?" Ceiling, upside, the "P" word...all of it is so highly subjective that it is, honestly, NOT a word(s) I would use when drafting in the top 10. I want verifiable, quantifiable and provable production. I do not want and cannot talk about some ethereal "thing" that has no tangible basis in reality. The number of players who have crashed and burned, drafted based on those three words, outnumbers the kids who realized those three words is 1,000 to 1. I mean, heck, Trevor Lawrence is a fantastic example. Anthony Richardson even more recent. When you are New England, Kansas City, Philly, San Francisco...you can throw around words like "upside" and the "P" word because they have organizations that have proven, over a generous amount of time, they can win while developing or even recover when failing to develop. The NY Jets have not. This team needs to draft as many kids, who are going to start day 1 and you have a high reasonable expectation that you "know" what that performance is going to look like. Not, hey, they may not be better than x player now but their "upside" is greater. Who is defining this "upside" and WHEN do we expect to SEE that upside, if ever? No, once the NY Jets can cobble together 3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE years of .500 ball or better then, and only then, will I be O.K. with our team drafting kids, in the 1st round, based on "upside" or the "P" word. Just my opinion. Bain = with the information we have, we know damn good and well he's going to sit on that D-Line and PRODUCE day in and out for the next 10 years, barring injury. The other two...maybe they will or maybe they won't. To be frank, I hadn't even given thought to the fact that Baily sat on a defense that was, generational, as far as college defenses go. And, Reese, by no fault of his own, I'm STILL recovering the disaster that was Vernon Gholston. But I won't hold that against him...much. lol
I'm with you there. Gotta be honest, in this draft, if anyone is trading the farm to move up to the top 5, first, you pull that trigger and second, if I'm the owner of said trade initiator, I'm firing that GM before the draft is over.
Yes, at 44 I want Malakai Fields. Big body WR that use to be a QB. Hes got excellent FBI, strong hands and wins in the air. He’s basically unstoppable on fade balls and back shoulder throws. AJ Brown/DK vibe.
TT definitely bought their D to contend. Can’t really blame them for trying to win. Bailey was the missing piece they needed off the edge. I watched his Stanford tape. He was doubled a lot in his 2nd/3rd year. He was all the had on their D line so teams would adjust. Their DC had to move him from left to right constantly to try to get him 1-1 matchups. The opposition QB would most of the time change protection at the line if he switched sides. To say he wasn’t good at Stanford isn’t true. He was all they had and teams adjusted.
Washington had the oldest D in the NFL with very little pass rush. It’s a lock the take a d man. I could see them be hot for Downs
The probabilities do not work that way. Yes at a given point of time when he was 20 he had smaller probability to succeed than Reese has at 20 now, because he is a better player at that age. Bailey at 20 had very small, almost non existent, probability of becoming the best pass rusher in FBS. However, after Bailey drastically improved in two years, actually beat massive odds against him, changed the trajectory, and became top pass rusher in FBS, the probability he had to succeed at 20 years old is simply irrelevant. And Reese's NFL success probability was not altered at all by Bailey beating the odds and drastically increasing his.
We can't do an apples to apples comparison of guys who are different ages. But if we had to guess, we'd guess that the guy who was better when they were both younger will be the better player at the end of the day. That's how it usually plays out.
Yes we can do apples to apples comparison mathematically. You assign a probability of NFL success to Bailey at age 20, say b. You can assign a probability to Reese today (at age 20), which is r. And you can assign a probability to Bailey today, say b1. Yes, r > b, but also b1 > b. You just don't know if r is greater than b1 or not. b (probability of Bailey at 20) is irrelevant at this point. Only the probability now (b1) matters. It's not my opinion, it's just obvious facts and pure math. There were a lot of player better than Bailey at 20, and yet very few of them became good enough to be the FBS best pass rushers at 22, like he is. So in his particular case if you guessed that these who were better than him at 20, will be better player later, you would have been wrong. Again, in his specific case, which is what we are talking about. But we know that know and have to account for that knowledge. In the mean time Reese still has only 13% pass rush win rate and we don't know if he can even transition to full time Edge. Projection on top of projection. High ceiling, but very risky. I will root like hell for him to succeed if we draft him, but would be very worried. Similarly to Travon Walker over Hutch.
