If we take Reese, there's essentially no chance he plays LB other than if he completely busts at edge. I'm keen on him because I think he's the highest upside edge rusher and he has a plan B as a good LB if that fails. Yes, the pick is essentially a bust if he fails at edge and needs to play LB, but there's reason to believe he'll be a good edge rusher - age, athleticism, pressure/sack rates, etc.
I dont know … I haven’t watched these guys all play…I have watched Bain, so my comments are not coming from a solid evaluation of Bailey, or Reese specifically, but my gut tells me that when you are a team with as poor starting talent as us with needs all over the place, I’d probably lean towards the safer pick I guess…I’d take the guy with a higher floor even if it maybe means a lower ceiling…we just can’t afford to miss here. In addition, I get that AG has SAID that, but from what I saw last year (and no, I’m not buying the fucking excuse that “it was Wilks’ defense” and that AG couldn’t step in and contribute, combined with the fact that the defense looked just as shit after Wilks was fired than before he was fired, so it’s not like AG made some great changes) I don’t exactly have a lot of confidence that Glenn can make the most of any player…shit he made every one of our players look worse in fact than they looked under the previous coach. I don’t know…to me it feels like Bain would be the safest pick…a solid defender, did well against top competition, and if he can be a solid 10 sack guy, that’s a win. If either of Reese or Bailey can do more but with maybe a bit more risk, I’m not sure I’d go that route. Again, I don’t know nearly enough to comment intelligently on the three specific guys, but from a conceptual standpoint, we need to make sure that whomever we draft at #2 can contribute meaningfully right away and have a very low bust potential.
I've really liked Bain when I've watched him. He's very athletic for such a heavy guy and has a really strong base. I just don't know if he'll translate to many sacks in the NFL. He didn't put up huge sack numbers in college and the sacks he did get were mainly a byproduct of volume rather than efficiency. I wouldn't be worried about the arm length thing in a vacuum but when I combine it with his questionable sack production it gives me pause. I generally think measurables/combine stuff is overrated but Bain is legitimately like 1st percentile for arm length. There's almost no precedent for a guy like that being successful as a pass rusher in the NFL and I don't like the idea of hoping for an outlier. I think Bain's NFL future is probably as a long-term starter who's good against the run and gets you 5-10 sacks per year but it's tough to see him becoming a consistent 10+ sack guy.
To me, Reese's upside is basically to become a Bailey. Gain weight that Bailey already had, move to the Edge where Bailey already plays. be as explosive off the Edge as Bailey already is, learn and perfect the moves Bailey already knows, etc... But ... what if he does not develop like that? Then we just draft an athletic LB at #2 overall. Reese literally has 3 sacks off the Edge all year. 3.5 others came in special pressure packages as a LB. And 0 total in last 6 games. Compare that to Bailey who led FBS with 14.5 off the Edge. This is the guy you want dealing with athletic NFL level OT. And to @Jets79 point, Bailey showed up in the big moment against Oregon in play-offs, I saw him as much as I saw Moore, whom I was watching in that game. Constantly in his face. I was rooting for Moore at the time, and I was thinking who the fuck is this monster constantly harassing him. They did not lose because of the defense. So, the question really is why not just draft Bailey now if you want Reese basically to hopefully become him? I don't think the ceiling is that much higher if any at all. Bailey is athletic freak, just as fast and strong. Let's see how the combine goes, but if they are similar athlete, I don't know how much more potential Reese has, if any at all. if we want to draft an athletic Edge who can get to the QB, Bailey might just be the guy.
Sooo basically we finally pick all the way up at 2 and everybody sucks it is unreal that this draft is so shitty at the top, there isn't even a concensus top guy after Mendoza. No chance we are trading down.
I like Bailey in a trade down scenario but not at #2 due to his age. Reese is probably my pick at #2 but trading down and taking Bailey has a strong case as the highest value move overall.
This is true. Look I think where the gap in our discussion lies is the position we would be drafting this man. He’s a good footballer absolutely no doubt. I’m not arguing that whatsoever. And of course Glenn is going to do what he can to play cover 1 man. Everyone knows that cover 1 is successful with pressure and many times sending 5 as a blitz package. So, having said that picture this. It’s 3rd and 10 and the opponent has the ball at the 40 we are in Nickel. Are you telling me Glenn will play Reese at DE over JJ and McD. No, he will put him at WK side MLB to cover the TE or come off a set edge from JJ on a contain block to blitz. Basically the exact role Williams plays. My point is the kid is not a DE. He’ll be a heck of a LB but don’t count on double digit sacks it’s just not his game. If we take him I’m ok with it. It’s not like we are getting a bad football player. He’s just not Micah Parsons who is practically a unicorn at DE. If the Jets take him I’d want him at MLB and being the captain of the D. His instincts, agility, awareness, speed, coverage skills and tackling ability would make a heck of a MLB. Even though I feel his best position is WLB or OLB. He’s a luxury pick and hopefully a luxury team offers a fat wedge to come up for #2. KC and the Bengals specifically.
He is 22, 4 year senior, not that old. Not unusual for guys with late August birthday or later. I think right now I would take him at #2. Definitely over Reese, because I also want a DE who would harass at QB and Reese is not yet it. He is not even DE at all, not to mention as polished as Bailey. We basically would need to develop him for a couple of years so he becomes like Bailey. I like the trade down idea, but not sure if there will be takers. So as of now until we get some more info during the Combine, he is my #2 pick.
This is where I’m at. Ever since Borat put me onto Bailey I’ve been obsessed with the kid. I went back and watched his Stanford tape and he’s just an awesome pass rusher. As much as I I like Bain, Reese and Downs I think Bailey is the best defensive player in the draft. Hands down the best edge rusher. It’s not even that close. When I watch him he’s Von Miller 2.0
Completely agree. I just hope Moug has the balls to do it and not cave to the consensus like so many GMs do.
Bailey isn't that old but he's 2 years older than Reese and Reese's production was better than Bailey's was at the same age so there's reason to think Reese's ceiling will be higher.
Fair point, but Bailey exploded in the last two years. It's very far from given Reese would improve at the same rate. We are not even sure he can be a DE at all, not to mention have the same impact as Bailey already has. If we pick him, I would certainly be hoping for that, but there is a bit more risk there than ideal at #2. I think Bailey's ceiling is quite high too.
Bain also brings a lot of other tangible things and lockerroom culture shit that this team desperately needs. Do not underestimate that, I can see him being the type of player that everyone rallies around. Reese has all the tools to be special but I need someone that will produce for us at #2 right away
fair points. I have preferred Reese myself but you are dammed right about Bain from a culture standpoint. after reading what Phillips said today about the Jets culture, you need to pump maximum value on changing that.
Reese is like a joker on D. In Matt Patricia D he was literally playing 5 different positions. This is a good and bad thing. The good side to this is that he’s versatile and an excellent football player that can adapt to almost any position on the field. The bad side to this is that he doesn’t have a true position and in the NFL these types of players usually don’t work out. I literally saw him play MLB, OLB, WLB,SLB, DE on his film. It’s impressive no doubt about it but the majority of the snaps I saw he played Will Sam and the odd time middle linebacker. another concern I had was that in big games he really didn’t impact the game the way Caleb Downs did. He didn’t look like the best player on the field. Caleb Downs did. So if he’s not even the best player on his team defense, how are we even considering the kid at number two overall?
Projection vs Eye Test. Bain wins everyday. Combine that with his relentless motor, junkyard dog mentality, and all of the other tangibles and intangibles he brings to the table and he's by far the most rock solid pick of the 3.
I think Bain is the guy to take if we can’t trade down. I think he’ll have a career similar to Sean Ellis.
If I never hear these fucking words again, in reference to football players, it'll be too soon: Potential, upside, ceiling & floor It's as easy as saying.... Bain = We know damn well what in the hell we're going to get day in and out. He's going to obliterate someone, just depends who and on which play Reese = has the "upside" because of Bain's ceiling or his floor, oh and he can play fifty positions Get the fuck out of here with that bullshit. At the #2 slot, if it isn't a QB, I don't give two shits and add a fart to the equation about upside, ceilings and floors. I want to know that when that player steps on the field he's either taking the rock to the house or knocking someone's block off. Play in, play out. Full stop end of fucking story. NO ONE knows what anyone's upside, potential, ceiling or floor is going to be, in the FUTURE, other than watching it unfold. After 15 years, fuck that noise. I'm done listening to it.
