Bailey is going to be a stud you can just see that star potential. Bain is going to be that steady eddy. Love both these kids. Bailey’s ceiling is higher and Bains floor is higher. Either pick I’m cool with
I agree that Reese is a risk at #2 because there's a lot of projection. I disagree though that he'd get manhandled in the NFL. Reese plays very strong for his weight and he has the frame to put on quite a bit more weight without losing speed/flexibility. I frequently saw him overpower OTs who had 60-80 lbs on him. The enticing things about Reese are his age, his athletic ceiling, and his efficiency as a pass rusher in college. He didn't put up huge sack numbers but he had the highest pressure rate and sack rate of any edge prospect in the draft. His lack of sacks in college was mainly due to lack of attempts vs. lack of capitalizing on attempts.
Agree with all of this. The red flags I see aren’t talent or measurable red flags, they’re lack of sample size red flags. The talent, the size, the tape… they all point to a star to the point where I’m favoring him at 2 over the more “surefire” guys.
Reese's decline in production over the back half of the season is too big of a draft risk to overlook. Compare that to Bain, who who did it all season long and dominated against the best teams in the country from beginning to end. In Reese's final 6 games of the season, he had just 15 total tackles including 6 solo. He also had 0 sacks and minimal QB hurries, if any. That's almost half of his entire season and that level of inconsistent production is a huge red flag that can't be ignored. Thankfully, we have a few really strong options at 2 who did it all year long.
Need some context here. 24-3 27-0 28-3 24-9 That was the score in the third quarter in 4 of those 6 games. I can’t find exact snap counts anywhere but reading commentary from OSU fans on Reddit and message boards, there were some games he didn’t play more than 30 snaps. They also didn’t rush the passer as much against teams like Purdue, Rutgers and UCLA based off what I’m reading. Laying an egg against Indiana was alarming, but he had a good game against Miami the following week. Bottom line is the tape and measurables say a lot more to me than anything else.
The thing is, remember I showed you all his sacks, he had 3 sacks all year where he beat his guy and sacked the QB. Others where generated by scheme, not edge sacks. Where he did a great job of course, but if you want him as your bread and butter edge guy in the NFL don't really translate. And second half of the season was definitely concerning too. At the end of the day, I agree he can CAN become a great Edge pass rusher, he CAN hold his own, but I think the projection risk and small sample coupled with reduction towards the end of the year is a VERY high risk. If we are thinking Reese who played LB mostly, we might as well just take Bailey who is 2 years older, but already developed into #1 edge pass rusher in FBS and just as athletic and strong (we could come back to the athletic part at the combine to confirm that). And he actually played better towards the later part of the season, when Reese was less effective.
Where are you seeing that? I can’t find snap counts anywhere but I can find fans discussing two games where he played less than 30.
Finally found snap counts @Borat https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio...in-leads-buckeyes-in-defensive-snaps-for-2025 For the run of games I pointed out above he played 37 snaps per game. On the season he averaged 46 snaps per game. That goes up significantly if you take out the four outlier games: 50 snaps per game. Like I said the Indiana game was a bad one for sure so that’s not looped into what I’m talking about. And I’m not using Miami either because he had a good game. Those two games aren’t part of the point I’m trying to make which is four of the six games in question, he was playing somewhere around 13 snaps per game less than every other game. And according to fan chatter he wasn’t asked to rush the passer as much.
I could find it here, but behind pay wall, so I will just post below: https://premium.pff.com/ncaa/players/2025/REGPO/arvell-reese/170264/defense Snaps for the last six: 32, 30, 44, 44, 59, 63. Seems in line with the rest of the season, snaps ranging from 22 to 65. Pass rush snaps also consistent, 8.3 per game. Total for the year 8.6 Basically there is no statistical anomaly on the last 6 games of the season as far as pass rush or snaps, compared to the rest of the season. This does not explain why disruption was less.
The six games isn’t the point. I’m talking about the 4 games I specified which represents more than half of the sample size in question. See my post above. There was a 13 snap per game difference between those games and the other 10. Could you post the pass rush snaps per game from Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, Michigan?
These were 32, 30, 44, 44. But pass rush were 9, 9, 8, 9 - actually a little above season average. But again, why last 6 are relevant is that the production dropped there. He hasn't had a sack since week 10, even though the remaining 6 games contained same snaps and pass rush opportunities in average as the rest of the year. There is no statistical explanation. It could be just small sample size in general, but herein lies a bigger point that we are baking on someone at #2 who has very statistically small sample size rushing the passer. I would be worried since this is not a luxury pick for us, we need a fundamental core Edge player IMO. The question I would ask is how much better would Reese be in two years than Bailey is already now (he is two years younger)? Bailey is now full time Edge player, good running defense this season, especially last 1/2 of the year, and top pass rusher in FBS with great 1st step. Leads in sacks, #2 TFL in the nation. This is nothing to sneeze at. Also very athletic and strong, a bit heavier. If the answer is he will be a little better, but on the flip side, he may not develop much at all in the worst case, Bailey should be the pick between the two.
