The “go for it all the time on 4th!!!” thing was a loser this playoff cycle though. The Bears gifted the Packers two easy short field touchdowns and should’ve lost that game as a result of the poor decisions. They followed that up by going for it several times against the Rams in FG range and didn’t get it, losing by 3. Jacksonville gave up a FG to go for it inside the red zone and ended up not getting it only to lose by a FG. The Panthers went for it to start the game against the Rams and gave them a short field when they didn’t get it. Payton gave up a chip shot FG yesterday.
These are all anecdotes and hindsight analysis. Nobody talks about it when being aggressive on 4th down leads to wins, only when it goes poorly. Who's to say the Bears, Broncos, Jaguars, and Panthers even win as many games as they did if they hadn't been aggressive on 4th down throughout the year? Maybe they don't even make the playoffs in the first place. Regardless though, my point was that we need a coach who at least bases the decisions on something. Glenn was clearly doing whatever he felt like in the moment for much of the year.
It’s not really anecdotal though. It was a theme throughout an entire playoff cycle. I thought Glenn managed 4th down decisions pretty decently in the second half of the year honestly. I mean we were getting crushed most of the time anyways. He coached some pretty terrible games including in London.
Wait, I thought it was in the 2nd quarter no? It was a defensive game for sure…when it was made, I already felt like points were at a premium and in the moment I thought it was the wrong call But hey, I’m not a Super Bowl winning coach, so what do I know
It's very much anecdotal. Picking 1-2 games out of the 18-19 these teams played this year is anecdotal. I actually agree Glenn got better on 4th downs the second half of the season, the data backs that up. But it's inexcusable to be kicking FGs on 4th and 1 from your opponent's territory and then going for it on 4th and 8 from your own territory the next drive, which is something Glenn actually did early in the year. It shouldn't take going 0-7 for a head coach to realize these things, especially since he came from the Lions which are the best team in the entire NFL in terms of going for it when they should.
You’re correct it was the first drive of the 2nd Q. Still nice weather, still a reasonable decision at that time. I thought they should have taken the points as well, but it’s hindsight pointing out a “low scoring” game. At the time they went for it there was no evidence those 3 points were at such a premium. Like I said, I thought they should’ve kicked it too but it wasn’t some egregious awful decision.
Yeah that is the one…personally, I would have kicked the FG and you’re down 31-30, with about 4 minutes or so left. Hope for a stop, then you only need a FG to win. That is what I was thinking at the time. Who knows either way, but that’s how I felt at the time watching the game, because if you go for it and miss it (like they did), then you still need a TD to win. It wasn’t like there was only 2 minutes left in the game…there was some time on the clock. In hindsight I think it was the wrong decision, and I thought so in real time as well, but McVey is a great coach and makes the right call more often than not, so I’m not here to judge him really. Just saying that in both of those key moments, I would have taken the easy FG and the points. They didn’t. They both lost, the Broncos by those 3 points. Again, both great coaches and I’d take either one in a millisecond over the shit we have, but in those cases, in those moments, I disagreed with their decisions.
I brought up 5 out of 12 total playoff games where the decisions negatively affected the losing team except for the Bears/Packers game. If you include McVay’s decision, that’s 6/12. That’s not 1-2. And Seahawks/49ers was a blowout. Texans/Steelers ended up being a blowout so 4th down decisions weren’t really a factor.
There were so many examples. He runs out the lock at half when there was time to make a play to get into FG range. Then he says he should have thrown a hail Mary. The very next game identical situation ... he runs out the clack again. He didn't know how far game winning FG was against Denver, thought is was 68 when it was 62 and Folk just hit 60 a week before with room to spare. It took him forever to realize you need to kneel when the ball is kicked into the end zone. I understand he eventually learns some, but there is always something new that presents itself. You can't have a coach who takes forever to understand the situation and learn. @Jets79 brought up Daboll. I would take him right now as a HC. And @Jonathan_Vilma, there are still guys available, I posted this before. I would interview Brady, Kingsbury, Kubiak, Monken. I would probably also talk to Daboll and maybe McDermott. We could also look at College ranks. Like Cignetti from Indiana, would he be interested? What about that young guy Jags OC or Chicago OC? Maybe even Josh McCown. Maybe Mooge talks to these guys and something good comes through here. It was DEFINITELY worth a shot.
Yeah…don’t know enough about the college coaches, and it feels like there haven’t been many cases of college coaches coming into the NFL and succeeding in a while, but for the others…Brady, Kingsbury, Kubiak, Monken yeah I’d be fine with talking to any of them, and I’d take any of them over Glenn TODAY.
How many aggressive 4th down decisions contributed to wins for these teams over the course of the year? I know your stance is that NFL seasons aren't long enough for the averages to work out for this stuff, but I just find it impossible to believe the analytics guys on these teams haven't thought of that and decided to be aggressive anyway. Choosing big enough sample sizes for predictions to work out is like stats 101.
Yeah, and the league isn't static either, trends change. It's not good enough that Glenn got better at some of this stuff by the end of the season because the point is that he's likely to be late to future trends as well. This 4th down stuff has been common knowledge in the analytics community for years now. I don't even know why we're rehashing this stuff right now to be honest. There is a mountain of evidence that Glenn is a bad coach. Any claims to the contrary are fueled by blind hope rather than evidence. I have nothing against the guy, he's probably an ok guy. I just don't want him coaching my football team.
wait what? You support aggressive 4th down calls?!? Where in the bloody hell do you think we got Aaron Glenn from? Literally the most aggressive 4th down team in the NFL... its like you are bitching for sake of bitching. You wanted to fire him after 6 games but not for losses, for aggressive 4th down decisions. But you support being aggressive on 4th down. You also aren't reacting anecdotical of course, but cited 2 anedotical examples to prove that point. chatGPT is more interesting
Shefty thinks by Wed all HC vacancies could be filled. If that's true come Wed, and these guys are still there, just call Kubiak's agent and if he is interested, pull the plug on Glenn. I know it is late, but darn, if we could get Kubiak here fresh off the SB, there may be an actual hope for the future.
All of those were pretty rough. I think Payton's was the worst though. backup QB, you gotta kick it ... always thought he was smarter than that could see an argument on the others but not that one. just bad coaching there
Come on man. This is why I had to bow out of the earlier convo. You think that there is any shot in hell that an OC fresh off a Super Bowl is going to take the Jets job?!
Yes, Glenn came from the most aggressive 4th down team in the league. So why weren't we nearly as aggressive as the Lions were this year? That's my whole point - Glenn's failures on the 4th down front are even worse when we consider that he came from the team that led the wave of teams being more aggressive on 4th down. Anyway, this is like year 7 in a row of some people on the board noticing things early, others calling them overreactors, the "overreactors" being proven right over time, and the people late to the party acting like nobody could've seen this coming despite them having had spirited debates with the people who saw it coming.
It happened last year when Moore came to shitty Saints team without a QB and CAP hell and not too many picks. There is a Denver connection to Mooge, and no other HC offer. Yeah, i think there is a chance. Get 70 mil from Woody, load of picks this and next year and CAP space, a seemingly competent GM you have a connection to. And hell, we might even be getting Leonhart in this scenario since there will be another connection there. That's why I said your argument made no sense. On one hand you say don't dump Glenn as next year there could only be a few openings with less competition so we should wait. On the other I am presenting to you a scenario where there is NO COMPETITON, all openings are filled by Wed, and good candidates are around with no other choices, and ... you still say don't dump Glenn. So, what is the actual argument, keep Glenn forever? Now as good a time to dump him as any. Maybe better even if vacancies are filled and Kubiak is still around, so we at least have a shot at him without competition. If I am Woody, rolls Wed, and we still have Kubiak out there and a few other guys I mentioned, I am making a call and pulling the plug. Golden opportunity could be here now. Of course Woody is dumb to do it, but man if HC vacancies are filled and Kubiak is around, this is a huge opportunity.
Just so I have your plan down… you’d fire the coach and then pray a competent candidate takes the job?
My stance is more nuanced than that but sort of. I just don’t think it’s anywhere close to the NBA or MLB to the point where you have enough leeway to make decisions that fail 60% of the time but it’s ok because there are enough games to make up the losses. My stance is more on a case by case basis really. Who the QB is, what the score is, how the teams look, what quarter is it, how’s the offensive line playing, etc. I don’t believe in a blanket “percentages say go so we go” and it all comes out in the wash as long as we make the right decisions.
