We can discredit any single analyst, because everyone has outlier takes, which is why I like to look at consensus on top of reputable guys. And it will change too of course as the process continues. But currently consensus has Mendoza, Moore, Reese, Bain in that order. Does that seem reasonable to you?
I am no expert on college ball by a long shot as I don’t watch enough of it. I do watch the playoffs now that there has been an actual playoff system, and one thing I do look for is to see who shows up big in big games. I do not like drafting players high who do not show up in big games…the best example of this to me was Vernon Gholston…I hated that pick from Day 1 mostly because I saw he did shit in their championship game. And I know that’s not the be all end all but to me it says a lot. I want gamers, guys who show up when it’s needed the most. All that being said, I hate to see guys climb or decline the boards a lot after the season is over. Fuck the combine and fuck the pro days. I get they have a place and have some value, to me, mostly as validation of what we think NOW, when the season is fresh. If you don’t rate a guy highly now, I would not elevate him and draft him high because of the post season workouts. I would use the workouts to either validate a guy’s rating, or else I’d be worried if a guy who I thought had a great college career showed poorly in the post season workouts as it may be an indication that the dude may fizzle out in the NFL. But overall, I’d try and stay away from post season draft climbers.
I think on top of the post draft stuff, a lot of actual analysis by NFL teams of what took place during the season is done after the season. So, the movement we will see later is not necessarily just by the workouts but also by the fact the NFL team analysis are being done and some stuff also gets leaked and some analysis watch more all 22 tape for each player, collect the data from scouts, etc... Say Connor Rogers, he is watching a lot of ball, but he simply cannot look at all individual guys while watching a game. I agree though at that the top it should not impact THAT much, since people pay attention to the top players right away, but there will be some movement as people analyze the tape more. Like Membou was a late riser, but not just because of combine, I just think he wasn't viewed as a top 10 guy initially but when people watched more they saw he should be.
Reese looks overrated to me. He's your typical high flyer due to his measurables, combine standout, etc. I haven't seen him dominant games, shit, not even close to what Bain does, to have him that high. It's amazing how there are so many guys like this every year over players who just flat out have better production. The other 3 look right. Bain takes over Gotham, again. Love the sound of that.
I like Bain better than Bailey and Reese. He doesn't get overpowered and he's really nimble for his size. Bailey looks better than Reese right now but Reese is two years younger, so I could see Reese being the better pro of the two before too long.
"experts" said Geno Smith would be the #1 overall pick.... and plenty of other "experts" said Zach Wilson would be the best QB in his draft.... some even had a cult of followers
Yes happens every year. Last year it was Shadeur Sanders the experts had where Mendoza and Moore are today
Cam was #1, and Sanders was 12th: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2025/consensus-big-board-2025 We've seen this with QBs outside of top 5 where they fell and also the other way some QBs not projected 1st round get moved up, like Dart (though he was consensus #33), but I do not recall top 2/3 QBs overall on consensus big board tumble. 2025, Cam #1 on the board, went 1. 2024, 1/2/3 Caleb/Jayden/Maye on the board, went 1/2/3. 2023, 1/3 Young/Stroud on the board, went 1/2 2022, non top 3 on the board 2021, TL/Wilson 1/2 on the board, went 1/2 2020, Burrow #1 on board, went 1 Of course big board might change some, especially if someone spectacularly fails in the remaining games, but with most games played, I think chances are very good Mendoza and Moore will go quite high in the draft if they declare, way higher than Sanders, Willis, Levis, and other guys who were ranked lower than tumbled.
your big board site says it was updated in September 2025, after the draft and well after January of 2025 which would be the actual comparison
No, they are all pre draft, this not actual draft: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2025/consensus-big-board-2025 Yes, it will be post Jan, so something might still change, I agree, still some games left to be played, players declare, etc...
Usually when webmasters update site functionality, they don't put a Last Updated date right in the middle of the featured content. That date is literally at the top of the list of players.
I don't know if you're doing it intentionally or just don't understand the concept of not putting all your eggs in one basket. Teams, particularly the Jets, have an extremely difficult time in identifying who that "good candidate" is. You get one shot a year at the draft; if your team has been paralyzed for years without a serviceable candidate you should be able to learn from that and adopt a new plan with more opportunities for success. You wanted an offensive lineman and a QB, as if that lineman was going to improve the quarterback's ability to read the field! Your one guy fails and you're out of choices - it's Pass/Fail. Obviously "providing a good candidate" is not as easy as you seem to think it is. I guess that's a system if time is no factor, if you don't mind repeating your errors year after year. If the Jets could get one viable quarterback out of every ten they bring in we'd be looking at 2036 before there is success - in the meantime we'd have ace receivers who can't get seen and have a ball delivered but we'd have a great line protecting a QB who can't see a corner back.
That and each year is updated with a different time stamp separated by one minute. They have some sort of compiler pulling the data and updating each year automatically one by one. They probably never turned it off until 9/10/25
Usually they do. It could be table formatting or anything or updating who was actually drafted where, some correction maybe. What they usually don't do though is update the player order of pre draft mocks 5 months AFTER the draft. @JackBower good point there about some sort of automaton as well.
Well, to be more accurate, those coaches weren't fired for drafting a rookie QB (aren't they all rookies in the draft?), they were fired for having to rely on that rookie quarterback, whether they had a choice or not.
This is not a bad strategy to have both a young veteran and a rookie. Minny did this, and actually Sam played well, could have been an answer for them. Of course they didn't keep him, but we could cross that bridge when we come to it. One other bit though, did I hear correctly that you wanted Sam and ZACH on the roster that year?
Well, the experts were wrong if they were calling Smith the first pick, but they wouldn't have been wrong if they had called him the best quarterback in that draft. It was not a banner year for QBs - EJ Manuel was the only one picked in the first round.
