Teams make adjustments. What was true 10 years ago is not true any more. Guys with some potential are picked in the 1st round now days. Teams are not afraid to miss and take a risk because reward is too high, as @REVISion pointed out. They are taking chances in the 1st round, and that drastically increases the probability of success. And the higher the better chance. Let's look at recent history play-off probabilities since 2000. We don't have to count 2025 rookie class yet. Here are the 1st round guys who led the teams to play-offs or will make it this year: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Trevor, Mac Jones, Stroud, Caleb, Daniels, Maye, Nix, Pickett (they made play-off in spite of him, so can remove from the list) Total selected 19. Play-off success rate: 63%. Adjust for Pickett: 58%. 2nd round or worse play-offs: Hurts, Purdy. Total selected 33. Play-off success rate: 6% And we can adjust for Mac Jones too, but then we also have to adjust for Purdy, they both played nearly identical under Shanahan. It's very clear however that picking QB high, ideally high in round 1, matters if you want to make play-offs. If you do not have a QB, you need to pick as high as possible in round 1. If you do, this is the time to gamble with lower round extremely low probability picks. Which is exactly what Philly did with Hurts (they had Wentz) and what 49ers did with Purdy (they drafted Lance #3 overall same year). That's smart. You have a starter and you take a shot at a possible back-up with some upside. What's not smart is to cheap out on a top QB prospect and pick in later round when you have shit at QB. Well, you can do that hoping the guy can turn into a long term cheap back-up, but just know you will need to spend a top pick a year later either way. And depending on the record and other factors, you may not even be in position to do it. Which is not to say you need a pick a guy in the 1st round you do not like. But if you think you can get a Goff/Ryan type, and you don't have a QB, we need to do everything we can withing reason to get him high in the 1st.
Selecting a Goff/Ryan type isn't the problem for the Jets, it is getting them to become Goff/Ryan after drafting them that is the major problem, the problem that has held us back for a decade plus.
This is another viewpoint that supports the notion that realistically, if you want a good QB, a QB that will take you to the playoffs, you pretty much have to get that guy in the first round. The odds of getting a great QB in later rounds is significantly less for the league overall. And specifically for the Jets, it’s worse. We have NEVER picked a QB in any round outside of the first that has been any good. Let that sink in. We’ve NEVER done it. I am not counting Geno when he sucked for us and somehow was resurrected like 10 years later in Seattle. Great point on the fact that more and more teams are taking more chances in round 1 which then of course affects these statistics…and that is a reflection of how much the game has changed. Even 20 years ago, it was hard but doable to win with a strong defense and good running game to kind of hide a subpar QB…shoot that got us to 2 consecutive AFCCG’s…but that’s where it stalls out. But the rules have changed…it’s a different game. You can’t hit the QB, you can’t even touch receivers most games…just those two rules alone have changed the nature of the game. Playing defense is extremely difficult now. So teams are forced to take chances on QBs more and more. We see it all the time where QBs are elevated. It’s interesting how now, in the middle of the college season, what was supposed to be a promising QB class is looking pretty poor. But I’m sure by combine time and personal workouts and predraft hype, a bunch of these QBs will rise up the draft boards. Just the nature of the beast. So for us, I’d be fine passing on a first round QB if none of these guys are deemed worthy of the pick, but if we do that, I’d just as soon punt the pick to 2027…I don’t see much of an upside to using a later pick on a QB when the overwhelming odds are he won’t develop. That would be true across the league, but especially more so true for us. We have literally the same HC as we’ve had for the last 20 years…a rookie defensive guy trying to figure it all out… that is not the guy to develop a QB.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t take a crack at a first round quarterback, but I am saying that if we don’t, I don’t believe it’s a wasted pick to try in the later rounds. And yes, of course teams are taking more shots on QB’s early now. The league has made it near impossible to win without a top ten guy. The days of winning with Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson are over, but teams used to be able to win with those guys hence why there was less urgency to try to find a good one. I’m ok with taking Mendoza but he is the best of a bad bunch and the only first round QB IMO. His lack of athletic upside and arm talent makes me nervous along with how well every QB performs with Cignetti at Indiana. On the flip side, he is not a complete statue even if somewhat limited, and he probably has just enough arm to be a NFL QB even if not top tier. And he’s also a really good quick decision maker at the collegiate level.
I also definitely don’t think Simpson is anything more than a game managing backup at best. A mid round pick. His arm is very weak outside the numbers. Very limited upside in my opinion. The stat lines against Oklahoma and LSU look a lot better than he played. Those are the best two defenses he’s faced. He is pretty risk adverse though which is good for a backup.
Can't help but think if LaNorris Sellers had Bama's offensive line (a brick wall) with Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard as WRs just how incredible of a season he would be having.
This is basically my stance. Strange, for as much as you and I go back and forth, ultimately, we're more or less on the same page. lol!! I guess my biggest problem, thanks to all the holes on the team, is trying to utilize the draft capital in the best way possible. A guy like Mendoza, in a normal draft year, would probably land somewhere in the 20's of the 1st round or in the 30's of the 2nd. His value is basically a point or two higher than a guy that would get drafted in the 2nd or 3rd. So, is the value worth taking him above 20, in the 1st round, because he's the best of a mediocre bunch or taking a DL, Edge, WR or CB at the top of the 1st because that is where their talent and production actually have them slotted. The team gets much needed talent at a position of need without the reach. I guess, now that I think about it, it does boil down to the two philosophies of BPA or need drafting. A "normal" team (yeah, I know, define normal) hopefully is in the position to draft BPA. This way you don't over draft and end up having a kid that has unrealistic expectations vs. a skill set that says they should "sit" for a couple years. Teams, like the Jets, who are light on elite talent almost always end up drafting for need which results in picking guys in a slot they should never have been drafted. Which leads me to Mendoza and why I'm so adamant that the team does not draft him unless they can get him in the 20's on down. There are so many needs why waste that slot on a guy who should never have been drafted that high? This scenario is most likely going to play out exactly like: Draft Mendoza top 5 Start Mendoza in 2026 Mendoza is not ready to be QB1 and takes a beating The media and fans start riding the guy, hard, which is what ALWAYS happens in the NY market. Especially after game 10 or so when everyone thinks the kid should miraculously be "up to speed" Mendoza's confidence is shattered before the end of the season or worse suffers some horrible injury because he's pressing Now we're in wash, rinse, repeat mode in 2027 but we cannot draft a round 1QB because, well, the reasons are numerous not to mention throw a little ego on the pile Mendoza struggles for 3/4 years, Jets do not pick up 5th year option, he is shipped somewhere else where he, most likely, becomes a serviceable starter to MVP candidate ala Sam Darnold Jets repeat same QB cycle that's been going on since Pennington walked out the door. I'd say it was the exception other than the fact, for basically the entirety of the Jets existence outside one or two men, it's the norm and has been repeated over and over again. I KNOW we need a QB. I'd just rather not do the kid, the fans or the team the disservice or watching the process on rewind. I'd be a little more in Mendoza's corner, from what I've seen, if his arm was just a bit better. The powers that be or rather the fools that run the Jets/Giants, saw fit to not put a lid on that stadium so arm strength is of paramount importance. Especially after October. If and when playing in October actually means something in NY Jets land. Not to mention Gillette and up in Buffalo. The division, outside of Miami, REQUIRES a certain level of arm talent. I wish I had the answer but I don't think bringing in a "debatable" talent at QB is the the right one. The whole deck looks the same as before and that deck has been stacked against the team for a while now. Edit: One component I've been hearing too is he's a Jesus freak. God this, god that...while I, personally do not condone religion in any form, to each their own. I just don't know how that's going to go over in an NFL locker room. ESPECIALLY if they hold true to form and do not win immediately.
i think the league is filled with "Jesus freaks" and he would fit in nicely with that. Didn't Aaron Glenn have bible study at the OTAs?
This is where we differ though. I don’t think he takes a beating or the Jets offensive infrastructure is bad. We have two stud tackles and Tippman has played pretty good guard this year. We have a good receiver, what appears to be a good tightend and will probably add 1-2 receivers and 1 interior lineman in the offseason by way of FA or the draft. Mendoza has the highest floor to be ready if put into a good situation but can he excel? Can he be a guy who accounts for 30 touchdowns a year? I’m not sure if he can or can’t. I wouldn’t be disappointed either way if we take him or not. And I’m not in the camp to keep waiting for the Jets to have 4 offensive Hall of Famers and the reincarnation of Bill Walsh before they take a QB. If they feel good about him, take him. He’s a good enough prospect I think even with the question marks.
Yeah my assessment of that earlier was probably off base. CJ Stroud is all about that stuff too and his teammates love him. @REVISion was right in that guys don’t care as long as you perform even if it’s not their thing.
Yup, hence the "winning" part at the end of my edit. If they're winning you can "Jesus it up" all day long. However, it's really grating when you're getting your can kicked all over the field, though. I know that one for a fact having lived through someone like that. Look, at the end of the day, you're probably right. They take Mendoza. As far as I'm concerned, I don't throw the team under the bus for doing it and I get it.......................................UNLESS............................they do something colossally STUPID like trading UP and blowing draft capital for the kid. If he lands in their spot and they take him, fine. However, there won't be a dumpster big enough or a fire hot enough for me to burn everything NY Jets related if they trade UP for a mediocre kid who shouldn't be sniffing the top 10 outside the fact that it's a VERY POOR QB class.
Will he be good enough to open up the run game for us, giving teams something else to think about rather than us grounding and pounding along?
[QUOTE="bleedgreen, post: 4470421, member: 1094"]It's damn hard to predict from college to pros, and it's also hard to see future potential after poor pro play. Everybody knows the examples. Basically it seems luck is the most important factor. So how should you select? What criteria? Because of the prediction problem, teams go for obvious traits. Athleticism being the most obvious and prominent. Easy to draft based on this. Of course, we all know the many examples of athletic QB who have failed or are failing. Whats next? quality of college competition? Height? Some passing stat accrued during college? Family like manning? There are a thousand eyes on college QB, there are well paid evaluators, there are teams who think they got the GUY they trade away the future for him. And still it seems it's hit or miss. Very few Can't miss don't miss. So I say don't shy away from drafting someone who you think will be competent. Competent is good, in fact great, compared to failure. The Jets should not wait to draft a QB if they think they have a competent guy when its their turn. I might even consider doing a trade if their confidence level is high. The jets need competence. Now a fan might say wait till next year I don't like this crop, etc.etc.etc. But they are just a fan. The coach/gm job depends on success. Prediction is fraught with danger so they can't wait for certainty. It ain't happening except in rare cases. The Jets need a QB.Draft one.[/QUOTE]
Only based on what I hear and read, since I haven’t personally watched any of these kids play, I’m thinking this class that was supposed to be good is proving to be mediocre, with maybe a couple guys adequate, but no true top three type guys so far. That may change when we go through all of the offseason workouts but I am always SUPER skeptical on those guys who rise after the draft when during the season everyone was like “meh” on them. So I would be ok with using our first round picks on BPA at need positions like Edge or WR as top needs, followed by DT, CB, S, OG, etc. and passing on a QB this year and instead signing some holdover vet. Not exciting but may be the best long run move. I am not really on board with using a later round picks on a “developmental” QB as the overwhelming odds for us are that he won’t actually develop, and to me it just feels like throwing away a pick on a less than 5% chance the guy pans out. For most of the league, but 100% for us, it’s a fucking delusional pipe dream. However, I can imagine that there will be quite a bit of pressure to take a QB with our top pick, or worst case, our 2nd first round picks. If they really believe in the guy, I could understand it. I do think we have a decent OL now, and if we can add another WR or two, maybe one of our pickups this year like Metchie or Mitchell pans out, who knows…we should draft on high regardless, but feels like a QB would be stepping into a bad team, yes, but not the worst possible situation around him, like many here have already said…average to solid OL, one proven WR so far, a good young TE, a good RB room…it’s not an absolute shitshow talent-wise, but it IS up to the coaches to make sure that talent shows up on game day. All that being said, I also would have no problem with drafting a QB in the first round this year, and if he doesn’t show enough, dip back in and draft another one in 2027…we have the picks, and I’m fine with letting them battle it out and it’ll sort it self out sooner or later…plenty of teams have double dipped…it can work with our cap and the amount of picks we have. Will for sure be interesting to see how Mougey handles it
Except I think there’s a misconception that these guys are “rising late” at least as it pertains to when fans find out about them. I also think we’re a bit jaded here because Wilson actually was a bit of the late riser type you mention because he was terrible for two years and blew up his last year. But so did Burrow though.. Mendoza as a reference point though was on the draft radar in the preseason of this college season. He’s not really a late riser.
Yah fair point…I’m not trying to single out any particular guy as like I said, I haven’t personally watched any of them play so I’m only kind of going by what I read and hear. For whatever that’s worth. If they like one of these guys by all means go ahead and draft him…I get that. If we do that, though, I would hate to have to trade up for a guy who isn’t a sure thing type like an Elway or a Peyton or a Luck was. Then again, Lawrence was supposed to be in that class also and he’s been far from it, so who the heck knows? But yeah, I’m fine with drafting a QB in round 1 and then if we have to double dip and take another QB in round 1 in 2027 I could live with that as well…not the best way to use draft picks for sure, but we are in a unique position of having 5 first round picks in two consecutive years and are so desperate for a QB that I would be ok doing that if the 2026 QB shits the bed. I would rather do that than waste another 3 years trying to see if he can “get it”…
I know is early and much will change. BUT. The more I read expert evaluations on the QBs is boiling down to slim picking in a subpar draft, with two candidates that might find there way into the top ten more due to dire need and less because of NFL ready talent. No endorsement yet by any on the OMG that is a must have QB. Both come with risk, one with a higher floor but limited ceiling, and one raising rapidly, with a forecasted higher ceiling but less physical attributes that separates the good from the very good. Many seem to think Mendoza success is a product of the OC system which translates more to a team with a west coast type philosophy. Others believe Simpson body of work is not near enough to project his ceiling. Nonetheless, there are 3-4 teams desperate enough to get one no matter the risk. So they will go higher than normal. I’m in no way good enough to watch film and project how that translates into NFL performance, but I’m highly opposed to try to out jump by trading up on such a crap shoot of a QB draft. We need to stick to our guns and plan accordingly. This is one in a lifetime set of premium draft picks and we should minimize the cost on a guy that a year later is deemed a solid but uninspiring back up. If so, I rather take a flyer later in the draft depending on who declares. In addition, we must start due diligence now on another vet that can replace TT and gives you a decent chance to manage a win with his arm. If either rookie come to us with the first pick, maybe…but hell no to a trade up. You can get a stud to help anchor this D or a WR that is a no kidding No 1 in the making.
I think it is too early to tell. There is still conference championships left, play-off, individual workouts, combine, pro days, sr Bowl, etc... I think it is important to go through this process and see more before saying if the class is weak. Last year that's how Dart came onto the radar, and before that Nix. Both look to be good to solid so far as NFL starters. We also don't yet yet who will declare. If Sellers and Moore declare (big if), it could change things as well. But so far I think this is way better than Pickett/Willis draft.
I am hoping Sellers declares. Moore is pretty much ruled out but you never know. I’m the minority on this, but knowing forehand that next year is expected to be a stronger class with more candidates, why wouldn’t a couple of guys come out now, where they have a better chance to get picked higher that probably next year. It does make a big difference to their benefits as a rookie.
