Arian Smith

Those stats are fun and maybe he is, but they’re also very subjective.

Example - does he have 4 yards of separation on the left side of the formation running a streak down field when the QB is sprinting out of the pocket to the right? That counts as huge separation for him and the QB is flushed so there’s no chance the ball can go to him.

He is indeed fast and light on his feet though. We should try throwing some play action bombs his way.

 

Id settle for a slant. Let him try to take one to the house. Honestly we throw so few slants that I don’t think this staff trusts Fields on any timing throws. And rightfully so.

 

Do they just not cover him because he’s targeted once a game? Maybe that one pass will hurt you. Over the course of 40-50 plays it’s probably worth the risk.

 

4th round pick on a team with the worst corps of receivers in the NFL and he's caught 4 balls on 9 targets through half the season.
May be coaching, may be scheme, may be QB play. I don't know what it is-- but if you can't break and make a meaningful contribution with a WR situation as dire as the Jets.....doesn't exactly make me confident he's ever going to be a legit NFL WR.

 

ESPN stats have him at 6 catches on 10 targets, so I’m guessing it’s that last game that added those, but yeah, the point is valid.

There is a whole discussion on this in the other thread where Borat brought up that he’s leading the league in separation, whatever that means. While nice to see, to me, that stat is a soft stat that is likely based on quite a bit of judgement, but regardless, he’s played a lot of snaps for us (more than I would have expected because he’s like invisible if you just watch the games), but he never gets targeted. A lot of that is because Fields sucks balls and can’t go through progressions and I’m assuming Smith is never the first or second read, but still.

I go back to what your take is…if this dude can’t crack the lineup and make an impact with a receiving corps as weak as ours, that’s not a good sign, no matter what the “separation” stats say

 

I can’t really buy that Smith not having an impact in this offense is alarming just because the rest of the receivers suck. There’s so much that goes into why Smith has been a non-factor and a ton of it is out of his control. This was always going to be a problem with using Justin Fields as our bridge quarterback… You have no way to assess the talent around him because he makes everyone worse.

 

Agreed that Fields is the main problem, and makes evaluation of receivers difficult.

But I still say that if Smith was really any good, he’d be making more plays…great players just show up. GW has looked great with some of the worst QBs in the league throwing to him. If he had a Mahomes or an Allen or a Lamar, shit, he’d be a superstar.

Now, I’m not going to say I expect a 4th round pick to be GW, there’s a reason why GW went high in the first round and Smith is a 4th rounder, but to be this invisible on a team with no good receivers outside of GW and now Mason Taylor, doesn’t give me much confidence in him.

I’m sure with better QB play he’d be doing better, so not writing him off yet and yes I’d like to see him with a real QB behind center, but just saying it’s been pretty disappointing.

 

The fact you actually believe this explains a lot of your recent takes that seem to want to suggest this Jets roster, as constructed, was ever really close to getting things right on offense.

You say things like "great players show up" as if GW's NFL tape, outside all the fantasy football stat padding, makes him look like he's on the JJ/Chase or prime Hopkins win rate tier. That isn't even remotely close to being true, and that runaway rose colored outlook probably at least partially explains why so many on this message board can't seem to ever fully see/acknowledge just how bottom tier our offense really is/looks on paper. Even dating back to last season and before we went out and got Davantee to actually add a more legit #1 type. Who on a play by play basis and at age 31 can still win more in elite level coverage then GW has ever proven capable of outside of college.

Like you love to shit on Fields, while he's being handed what was always realistically projecting out to be one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL, while basically glazing the hell out of GW for disappearing more often then not in big moments with 85% of his NFL production only "showing up" in softer coverage garbage time.

 

One of the worst starting casts in the NFL, sorry have to disagree there. Hall/Allen/Davis, two 1st rounders at tackle who have been playing well, interior OL has been serviceable, Mason has been good. WR maybe but most people have a much rosier opinion on Wilson than you do. Not sure what positions you think were so bad? I believe Fields had the most time to throw of any QB and there have been open players he's missed all season, he just can't read the field or go through reads. He's not the only one shitting on Fields, you can find a plethora of analysts and experts with the same opinion.

 

No no…I don’t think this roster is all that close to getting it right. Our offense sucks. But most of that is on the shit poor QB play we’ve had.

Our OL is about average…not great but not the terrible slop it was for most of JD’s tenure here. Hall is a very good RB…not Jamir Gibbs good, but again average at least.

We can disagree on how good a receiver GW is … I don’t think he’s JJ or Chase, agreed, but he is above average and for him to put up the stats he has with arguably the worst QB play in the league is a pretty good indication the guy is good.

And I think I am 100% justified in “shitting on Fields” because, you know, he sucks! He is Zach Wilson level.

So not sure what point you are trying to make…I think GW is a great player but not best WR in the league great, I think Fields sucks, I think this roster is bad, but not THIS bad and I think a LOT of that is on coaching, and I am not happy trading away two young studs…I get the logic and I do love the return, but I just feel like it’s hard to get better when you keep getting rid of the few great players you draft.

I hope our coaching improves, I hope we can turn those picks into great players, I hope we can find a legit QB and that AG and Tanner can develop him, I hope all those things…but I’m not overly optimistic on AG being able to do that

 

Wilson is either at the absolute bottom of the highest tier of NFL receivers or near the top of the second tier of NFL receivers. Still not sure which but I lean second tier. He just isn't physical enough to be a true #1 like the Chase's and Nacua's of the world.

 

I see him as a different type than Chase and Nacua, he's not very big. He's more along the lines of Amon Ra which is also awesome to have. Drafting a big tall strong guy like Nakua would be nice to compliment Wilson not replace him.

 

I think the NFL tape there, outside one of the best stat padding scenarios in the league GW has fallen into, suggests there being a lot more boom-or-bust Jameson Williams to GW's game then steady presence Amon-Ra. Like put GW there, or on Buffalo or KC as suggested above, and that is what is likely ends up looking like. You don't get Tyreek Hill or the Diggs stat line before Josh Allen started constantly spreading the ball around these days like he's prime Tom Brady.

Which isn't a direct "problem" per say by any means, but again at least partially plays into why these perception failures that were are setting up our QBs better then they actually end up being keeps happening. GW as a #1 in an offense doesn't work, and isn't ultimately doing our projected QB play or weekly gameplans the favor people keep wanting to pretend it does in their rose covered outlooks. The football IQ at the NFL level and ability to consistently beat better coverages simply hasn't been there with the guy.

I still probably ultimately take Olu in that draft, but the Bowers crew and team weapon was admittedly a lot more right there then I was 2 years ago. This team is still stuck in first gear as far building an offense goes. We need a QB *AND* we need to at least be shooting at a higher tier ceiling receiver type then 4 year NFL vet GW somewhere in these next 2 drafts.

I might even be tempted to suggest an equal'ish importance in both. And for that you went into yesterday probably needing more premium picks.

 

We will just have to agree to disagree on Wilson, comparing him to Jameson Williams was the straw lol.

 

Oof man, I can't get down with this AT ALL. You can't say Garrett is a garbage time stat padder when he was 5th in targets last year. That's more than the guys you'd consider true 1's like CeeDee and literally St. Brown. It's also FAR more than Jameson Williams. And beyond that... the actual numbers say that there was no huge jump in 4th quarter stats for Garrett last year. In fact, the most yards per quarter came in the 3rd. More receptions came in the 4th but by less than a half a reception per game. Basically there's nothing to justify that opinion.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsGa00/splits/2024/

PER GAME:
1st Q - 1.8 targets, 1.2 catches, 12 yards
2nd Q - 1.9 targets, 1.4 catches, 15.9 yards
3rd Q - 2.4 targets, 1.5 catches, 18.9 yards
4th Q - 2.9 targets, 1.9 catches, 17 yards

 

You realize garbage time stats and easy soft coverage catch yards can still happen outside the 4th quarter, and especially on a team that has been as consistently bad as we have these last 4 years, right?

GW was 5th in targets playing *here* last year. Again, he probably wouldn't be getting anywhere close to that on a team like Detroit either. Or KC. Or Buffalo. I also could re-post the general efficiency rates and historical production we've seen coming out of guys getting as much opportunity targets as GW, and how he ranks pretty much dead last on the list by a fairly notable amount, but I doubt it would convince you anymore then the first couple times I've made the effort here to do it in various other threads.

That surface level insistence that he's better then he's actually been is part of the problem equation here that keeps this offense stuck in 1st gear man.

 

You can post whatever you want and I'll read it just like I read the comparison to Jameson Williams and went and researched why that was a bad call so I could form an opinion based on facts.

 

Yeah, I don’t know what he’s trying to say but it’s a weak-ass argument.

You want to say GW isn’t as good as guys like JJ or Chase? OK, I can live with that. But making him out to be something of a stat padder or garbage time guy is just off base.

Whatever…to each his own

 

Actually, the equation that keeps this offense stuck in first gear is primarily that we don’t have a QB worth a damn and haven’t in a long time…coupled with overwhelmed DC coordinators trying to play HC. Then I would add the terrible OL’s we’ve had for years. I would say those 3 things are the overwhelming issues that are keeping our offense off the rails.

Much more so than overrating GW, who you may not like as a WR1, or you may say he’s no JJ or Chase, but fine, I’ll grant he’s not those guys. He is, however, a pretty damn good WR, and to belittle his stat line accumulated with the true shit QB’s he’s had (unlike JJ who plays for a great QB HC in O’Connell and Chase who plays with Joe Burrow) just doesn’t resonate with me.

You can have your opinion, but I just don’t get it. I don’t see anyone here claiming GW is the best WR in the league, or even in JJ/Chase class…