A good article for those of you who has The Athletic subscription or subscription thru NY Times. If no subscription I believe you still can read a few articles for free every month. They have Bills at 9.7 wins, Jets at 9.6 wins and Dolphins at 9.5 wins. So to them it will be a three team race but Vegas thinks this is a neck and neck race between Jets and Bills. Here is the write up for 3 three teams below. For full article click the link below. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5732411/2024/08/30/nfl-2024-win-totals-projections-analysis/ Buffalo Bills Win total: 9.7 This seems just about right. A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I’m sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC’s fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a new offense without wideout Stefon Diggs or center Mitch Morse. The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don’t rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia New York Jets Win total: 9.6 It’s hard to argue with this projection — and fascinating how tightly the AFC East teams are grouped. The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins. They had a top-five defense in each of the last two seasons, and the unit is still mostly intact (and could be even better if/when Haason Reddick finally reports). The offense should be vastly improved. Rodgers is obviously a major upgrade over Zach Wilson and last year’s rotation of backups, Breece Hall is fully healthy, Garrett Wilson is ready to break out and GM Joe Douglas did a good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt Miami Dolphins Win total: 9.5 This matches the over/under from BetMGM, so the experts are aligned here. However, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light schedule to start the campaign, I lean toward the over here. I expect coach Mike McDaniel to field another offensive juggernaut while unleashing some new wrinkles that most defenses won’t be able to handle. I’m concerned about Miami’s defensive line without Christian Wilkins but also love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I think Miami gets off to another hot start but will have to fight to get to 10 wins against what looks like a very tough closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello
I love that final stretch for Miami. They could be in 1st place comfortably by November and then choke it away like last season
Vegas has Jets +165 ; Bills +195 for the division (probably not exactly that depending on the site) Over 9.5 wins -155 ; over 10.5 wins +100
I'm gonna say it again, I HATE when the media and Vegas start "riding the Jets jock." Almost ALWAYS signifies the wheels are going to come off and come off early. Every time there's a Jets Bandwagon all hell break loose.
It's great to see the Patriots and their obnoxious, spoiled fans in the basement. It's going to come down to injuries. The healthiest team of the 3 is going to win the AFCE. The AFC is stacked again this year. I wouldn't count on a Wild Card for the division runner up.
9.7? What does that even mean? I get that when you gamble, the win totals are usually .5, but the athletic has writers that seem like they just graduated high school. 9.7. GTFO... If you want to say 10 wins, then say 10 wins.
I sometimes wonder if these writers think that using decimals somehow makes their predictions look more authoritative.
Imo: 1. Jets 2. Bills 3. Dolphins 4. We all know I think the Bills have had to take one step back this year, to take two forward after. I think the offense will struggle (that doesn’t mean they can’t score on any given play) but I just don’t see the top end talent needed to compete with the top teams. The bills have a lot of B players imo. Wouldn’t be totally surprised if the dolphins jumped them for a year if the bills get injuries in the right places.
Good point actually. I googled it and the best explanation I could come up with it is as below. Say we have to play 3 games. And our win probability for 3 games is as below. Game 1: 80% Game 2: 40% Game 3: 50% So our predicted win total for these 3 games will be 1.7 wins if we add the percentages. Again this is my uneducated guess after googling.
For the division? That's good, better than Caesar's and Draftkings which is what I was looking at. Who you using? Draftkings has Bills +190 today. Both still at +165 for NY I had bet a while back the over 9.5 and 10.5 at slightly better than they they both have now. Meanwhile Caesars has NY +850 and BILLS +900 for the conference, and DK has the Bills +800, NY +1000, while still favoring NY for the division, which is odd. I think that's the extent of my future bets, though the +1000 is tempting
My apologies, just re looked at my ticket, got it at Red rock casino. Jets +165, Buffalo +155, Miami +180. Bills +190 is a steal BTW. As a side note Jets money line against Frisco + 170 or +31/2 points.
NP. I kind of like your division bet. I like the Jets there but would like a number like you got, at least. I'll bet against the Jets on a game to game basis though depending on lines and circumstances. Following the team closely can give an edge sometimes. I have no problem doing that lol Good luck.
Eh....if you flush Vegas then all the decimals just go the way of the dodo. Seeing as I don't bother wasting my cold hard cash betting on sports, decimals are a waste of time. At the end of the season team A didn't win the division with 9.7 wins. They either had 9 or 10. Nowhere in between.
That half a point is a huge advantage to the house, and an huge disadvantage to the players, and the difference between a tie at 9 and a loss. Vegas rakes in the big bucks on both the over and under.
Would a tie figure into it? Ties are a little more likely with the adjusted OT rules. What if the division winner finishes 9-7-1? I guess the tie wouldn’t count with Vegas odds…
Which is why the only thing I do, while in Vegas, is play the craps tables. Sports betting is about the biggest crock o' shit there ever was. Having been an IT Manager for a casino there are things I............. lol
