Nothing wrong with trading up when you are sure and solid on a player. As shitty as JD has done on his 4 drafts as a whole, when he has traded up he has got it right. AVT (injuries aside) and Breece Hall being the best examples. Going back to Tannebaum Revis and Harris were brilliant moves and set us up for the best defense we ever had once Rex coached it. I don’t understand the sentiment against trading up either, considering it’s worked pretty well for this org.
Compare Tannys results for his 7 years with Mac’s 5 years, and JDs 6 years. I think there was only one losing season in seven, and some deep playoff runs. He ultimately failed at QB, but did a lot of good things beyond QB. Maybe there’s some merit to not having a college scout run the strategy for an entire team.
Hopefully it's smoke screen but sure seems like Odunze is going to Chicago. Reports are SF wants a 1st for aiyuk. If the top 3 WRs are gone early would you trade 10 for Aiyuk and 31?
With the 10th pick I still come back to Fuaga being the right choice. If Alt or Nabers reaches 8, trading up should be in play. Odunze at 10 certainly not a bad choice either. But short of trade up, the way I think the draft falls, Fuaga is my choice.
A lot of rumors and smoke that the Jets want a weapon at #10. Not sure if it is true, but it sure looks like it. At this point it appears to be Bowers, Odunze, or maybe if they trade up for Nabers somehow. If all of them are gone, then I think JD will attempt to trade back. Here are the top odds of each pick.
I just watched the full Washington-Oregon State game. I recommend it. LINK. The ESPN Primetime game, so I'm sure I watched at least some of it at the time. Apparently wasn't very memorable. Good game, though. This match-up gives you good look at Fuaga, Fautanu, Odunze, Penix and even DJU, for those masochistic types who want to get a head start on self-cutting for next year's draft discussion. I focused mostly on Fuaga and Odunze, so I couldn't focus all that much on Fautanu. I especially wanted to see more of Fuaga. Not just some armchair draft expert spotlighting a handful of plays and telling me how remarkable he was on those few plays. Whole game or bust. Statistically, Odunze had a good game - 7 catches for 106 yards and 2 TDs. We all saw plenty of him during the season. That's him. What struck as I watched this replay was how much of his game is - run straight, stay outside, turn, fight for the ball. Nothing over the middle that I saw. His first TD was about a 10-yard catch where he badly beat a CB who's now entering his seventh college season (I checked) with a juke inside. Not a very quick move, and not something I see him making a living of in the NFL. His second TD was 30-yards, like I said - run straight, turn, fight for the ball. Against a different CB who's putting off his job at the Chevy dealership for a few years, and who was gun shy because he'd already been flagged once for PI in the endzone. UW featured Odunze in a screen that didn't do much and an end-around shovel pass that did nothing. Dude is big and finds the ball in the air. Not so much quick and elusive. Fine. I wasn't expecting that. I didn't see anything thrown to him in the middle of the field and don't recall seeing much of that, if any, in any other game. I may watch the playoff games again. Could be wrong. Like I said, I mostly wanted to focus on Fuaga. Caveat: I'm no OL expert, but I know all the dopey OL catch phrases. The good part: you can clearly see that 90% of the time he's doing exactly what he's supposed to be doing. Even if you don't know exactly how the play is designed, that comes through clear. Everyone else on the OSU line could be flopping around like bloated walruses and you'll still see Fuaga engaged and doing his job. He also wins about 90% of his matchups. I saw him beaten once around the end and one other time on an inside move, but 90% of the time the dude is focused on his job and doing exactly what he's supposed to be doing. Also good, he's clearly athletic. He's not just winning with retard strength, he creates his own leverage, uses quick feet, strong hands and doesn't hold. He also seems to attack pretty well in run blocking. OSU had a solid night running the ball. Less than thrilling: Important game, home game, a tight game - two moronic false starts. Pretty sure the only two OSU had all game. And one of them late in the 4th quarter when OSU was driving and could least afford it. Looked a little gassed, but see for yourself. Also less than thrilling: he wins 90% of his battles but he doesn't dominate any of them. He can be pushed. Compare him to Joe Alt and you'll see the contrast. He'll stand a guy up at the point of attack, but he's not driving guys all over the field or pancaking passrushers, And DJU, being DJU, is prone to pissing himself and throwing to gophers when he gets nervous and senses that things could break down. One of the reasons he was benched at Clemson. That's unhelpful. Also, OSU ran the ball pretty well, but if you focus on the few 3rd and 4th down plays when OSU is looking to pick up a first down on the ground, they never (or almost never) ran to his side. I realize a bunch of considerations go into those play calls, and probably half of them were QB draws. I get it - there's more to it. No sense in running where everyone, including me, expects you to run. It's just that the rest of the OSU line is stocked with bloated meat sacks who I'd never want to have to count on in a critical moment. All in all, after watching Taliese Fuaga in one full and important game, I'd say: a good right tackle. Good, not dominant. Two dumb mistakes, but otherwise did everything he was supposed to do. I wasn't wowed, but I wasn't disappointed. Seemed athletic and versatile enough to play inside if asked. A good right tackle with a top ten pick? Color me unenthused.
I love the idea but this is where I would be concerned with money. I’m not sure you can pay GW and Aiyuk 60 million dollars. It’s the same problem Cincinnati is running into with Chase and Higgins.
Think I'm officially on team "anyone but Bowers" at 10. If they trade back and take him, fine. If all the WRs are gone and no trade is available give me OL.
Thanks for posting…very informative and I like the analysis! I don’t typically watch a lot of college ball, but I do like to watch the playoffs and see how some of the top guys do in big games. On Washington, against Michigan, I saw all I need to see on Penix…he was awful. Looked just like Zach. Indecisive, absolutely terrible mechanics, inaccurate beyond all shit. Just Zach 2.0. I want no part of that guy…he may have done well in the PAC 12 but when he faced a better defense, he looked atrocious. No thank you…he’s not gonna be a bonafide NFL QB in my opinion. As to Odunze, I don’t remember being impressed by him. And while I hate the idea of taking a TE at 10, honestly if it came down to choosing between Odunze at WR or Bowers, I’m not sure I go Odunze. I have a kind of funny feeling that he’s not gonna be that good in the NFL. Don’t really know why, and sure I could be totally wrong, but while I would prefer an OT at 10, I gotta say if it has to be a receiver, I may prefer the TE who dominated in the SEC vs. the WR who dominated in the PAC12. Would at least be a tough decision for me, even though I don’t want a TE and I think we DO need a WR. I’m just not sold on Odunze.
Listened to Joel Klatt's podcast this morning. I don't put much stock in his or any other mock drafts, but the top half of his final mock was amusing enough to mention. Klatt knows college football - Big10 especially - and he's been working the draft hard the last few years. Doesn't make him right. Just interesting. 1. Chicago - Caleb Williams 2. Washington - Jayden Daniels 3. New England - Drake Maye 4. Arizona - Marvin Harrison Jr. 5. Minnesota trades up with LA Chargers for J.J. McCarthy (Klatt says this trade is Harbaugh's favor to J.J., setting him up with a good fit. This ignores the fact that Harbaugh takes things SUPER personal and he still thinks Minnesota screwed him two years ago. Possible J.J. could go this high, I guess. I doubt for the reasons Klatt gives.) 6. New York Giants - WR Malik Nabers 7. New York Jets - trade up for WR Rome Odunze (Depending on value, I'm not against trading up. I'd be against trading up for Rome Odunze. Desperation without aim.) 8. Atlanta - Dallas Turner 9. Chicago - Joe Alt 10. Tennesee - Olu Fashanu 11. LA Chargers - trade down with Minn for Brock Bowers 12. Denver - Bo Nix (after trying to trade down thinking they could get him lower) 13. Las Vegas - Michael Penix 14. New Orleans - Taliese Fuaga 15. Indianapolis - Quinyon Mitchell
The biggest challenge I have with Odunze is the level of talent he played against. He set a record for percentage of contested catches won, but he did it against Pac 12 competition, not exactly the gold standard for defenses. That has me wondering - if he's so good, why isn't he wide open instead of being contested so much. Tier 2 corners are keeping up with him.
I'm coming around to Brock Bowers. According to recent rankings, the Jets TE unit is one of the worst ranked units on the team along with safety. It makes sense and he might actually be the overall BPA at that spot. Conklin's on his last year, Bowers & Ruckert for the future sounds nice, although if a good OL falls, it's hard to say no. I am against trading up, however, unless it's for MH Jr or Joe Alt. The Jets have limited assets to work with this year in the draft. A good player SHOULD fall to 10. Trading up for the #2 or #3 WR is silly. One of those 3 will fall and if not a top OL will.
Daniel Jeremiah who is pretty plugged in, especially with his old college buddy Joe Douglas, says after the last round of phone calls he's had... everyone is trading up for an OT. This is alarming. I can get behind a tackle at 10 even though it's my second to last preference (D being the worst possible option). But giving up future draft capital to get a guy that ideally barely sees the field this year when you have maybe a two year window? That's a ridiculously bad strategy. I'm fully on board with trading up for MHJ, Nabers or Odunze. I'm not one of those OMG WE NEED ALL THE PICKS WE CAN GET guys. But it's a REALLY hard sell if we trade up for an OT.
Yeah I totally agree on Odunze, especially the bold. Just not at all convinced he'll be good in the NFL. I've come to realize that if you have to try to sell yourself on a guy while watching tape then it's not a good sign. The really great guys are obviously great on tape. That's how I felt watching Garrett Wilson in college - it was like watching Spider Man play WR. Odunze wins on size but he's not especially big. I don't know if the bully ball will translate. He's not like Drake London where he's so big that it basically doesn't matter if he's "open" or not. If it's between Bowers and Odunze, I have a STRONG preference for Bowers.
If the draft fell like that... I don't know what to say I would be so pissed. Passing on Alt and Bowers both?!? WITH a trade up? for Odunze.... you could stay put and have your pick of Bowers or Fashanu! you could trade down even knowing that teams want Nix and Penix
My two cents based on this latest forecast. First off I hate trading up for Odunze. Second, Passing up on Bowers at ten for Odunze is a question of usage in our formations. There are some red flags about Odunze ability to play at the next level where his size along will not do it against NFL defenses. He has not faced anything close to this level of competition in college. But, worst of all, passing up on Alt for either of them is a massive mistake in my opinion. I hate that forecast.
Douglas traded up for AVT, JJ, and Hall. Theoretically could he have done better not trading up -- probably, but there is no debate that there have been guys he targeted and got at slots where he saw values and those guys have performed
