I like the idea of trading back for Mims. Mims has a ton of potential but needs time to develop. We’re in a perfect situation for that. But if Alt or Fashanu are sitting there I believe you have to take one of them at 10. I’m not a huge Odunze fan, but I’d be ok if they took one of the following at 10, which I think at least one will be there at our pick. Nabers Bowers Alt Fashanu
JJ wasn’t an All Pro though. Not even sure how he made the Pro Bowl last year. He’s been a solid player but I didn’t like that trade up at all. He also came out as a very old rookie.
The 2020 draft was obviously dogshit for us: In-Draft Trades The Jets traded a second-round selection (48th) to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for a second- and a third-round selection (59th and 101st).[36] The New York Jets traded a third-round selection (101st) to the New England Patriots in exchange for two fourth-round selections (125th and 129th) and a 2021 sixth-round selection.[37] The Jets traded their sixth-round selection (211th) to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for CB Quincy Wilson.[38] The Seahawks picked up Darrell Taylor with pick 48 and the Pats picked up a TE Dalton Keene so the other teams didn't do much with the trade-ups and we did dogshit with the trade-downs so that's probably a wash. There weren't many jewels passed up around those picks--L'jarius Sneed went pick 138 and Tyler Biadasz at pick 146. I'm just as bad as anyone at drafting but I was screaming for Biadasz over James Morgan. No good receivers came after Mims except maybe Gabe Davis at 128. Overall, as shitty as this draft was, his trade downs weren't the reason why--interesting.
The AVT trade was as follows: Jets receive: 2021 first-round pick (No. 14 OL Alijah Vera-Tucker) 2021 fourth-round pick (No. 143 traded to Raiders) Vikings receive: 2021 first-round pick (No. 23 OL Christian Darrisaw) 2021 third-round pick (No. 66 QB Kellen Mond) 2021 third-round pick (No. 86 G Wyatt Davis) No doubt AVT is far better than average pick--but Darrisaw at T is probably just as good or better. Of course JD did not have perfect information and who knows if Darrisaw was on his list. Staying put and taking Darrisaw and then Wyatt Davis at 86 looked like the right thing to do--sucks Davis knees are shit--he was something at OSU. This trade worked out for us since highly likely JD does no better with pick 66 and 86 and probably picks someone worse than Darrisaw. I wouldn't call it a win though--its a decent job.
Lol. The draft is far from settled science, but trading down being generally a good thing is one of the surest things in draft science. The reason is that GMs and scouts generally overestimate the difference in talent between guys drafted in the same round or areas of a round. They fall in love with particular guys more than they should. Trading down capitalizes on that error in judgement. Trading down also means: 1) More younger talent on cheap contracts and 2) Increased competition (which makes everyone better) because players have to beat out a higher number of hungry young guys for their roster spots
The New York Jets sent picks No. 35, No. 69 and No. 163 to the Tennessee Titans in exchange for No. 26 and No. 101. The Green & White used their third first-round selection on Florida State pass rusher Jermaine Johnson. Tennesse picked up Roger MCcreary at 35 and a Tackle Petit-Frere. I cant say I know how good those guys are but JJ has performed very well. If we just stayed at 35 we could have gotten Breece there and kept pick 146. So if we sat tight, we would get Breece at 35, then have picks 69, 146, and 163 instead of JJ. It looks like to me, we could have had Chad Muma (70) or Nakobe Dean (83) at pick 69. Would you take either of them over JJ straight up now? Given that JD probably picks worse than these 2 LB's, it worked out but I would not call it a big win overall--maybe a slight positive as things stand now. EDIT: oh hell, we also gave up the 38th pick to the Giants--now that trade for JJ comes out to 38, 69,146, and 163. Thats a lot to give up.
McCreary’s a stud although we obviously wouldn’t have been in the market for a corner there. We got a good player. I just don’t get why we compiled so many picks to move up in so many scenarios over the past couple of years. It’s why we have such depth problems at certain positions.
Fkin A--we don't make the playoffs for 13 years and we give away picks by trades and trading up--it would be interesting to compare NYJ org against others in this regard.
What I appreciate about this is how it acknowledges that Brock Bowers skills can’t be pigeonholed by the “TE” next to his name on the draft board. The two best resources on Bowers’ team value - beyond any draft “expert” - are Mark Stoops and Bowers’ position coach, Todd Hartley. I’m sure the world wide webz are loaded with quotes by both. Hartley always talked more about his work ethic than his talent. As much as any other player, Bowers was responsible for a culture shift at UGA. Stoops has the more interesting take, though. First, because Bowers sucked the life out of UK as a freshman and again as a junior, both times when UK was roll. But also, Stoops was at Arizona with Gronk. He spoke glowingly about both, but talked about the comparison and different skill sets more than once. Any head coach who would play Bowers in the “traditional” TE role should be run out of football. Probably would be, soon enough. ——— ETA: Easy enough to find these two clips, but I’m sure there are more: Stoops https://youtube.com/shorts/dvohBpJJDfA?si=7abzetnARlIMGCBz Hartley https://youtube.com/shorts/cm2g9lik0H0?si=ueNlt-pIG1XFy8Te
You make some good points, but as in the case of Mahomes, which would you rather have Mahomes, or a bust of a QB and more cheap players? IMO you roll the dice on players who you think clearly have the talent and potential of becoming All Pro-type players over 2-3 lesser players, especially at QB. A GM has to have confidence in both his scouts' abilities and his own to evaluate talent, or he shouldn't have the job in the first place. Trading down because one isn't really high on the players at one's pick, trading down rather than taking the highest-rated player at that point in the draft who plays a position who wouldn't clearly upgrade one's team and one has strong needs at other positions and one doesn't want to reach, trading down because there are a group of players that one has rated pretty evenly and can acquire additional picks, or if one is rebuilding and needs a lot of talent are all legit reasons for trading down imo. Trading down because one worries about overestimating the talent differential between prospects is not a legitimate reason imo. The GM's primary job responsibility is assessing talent and then acquiring the talent that the team needs. Of course no GM is perfect. They all make mistakes, but I think they all know that the draft is a crap shoot. All they can do is learn as much as they can about prospects and make the best-informed decision they can.
I know you're big on Bowers--what about that Nania research on him getting something like 1/2 his catches behind the LOS? That doesn't seem like it will play well in the NFL. I'd like to hear your opinion.
You're right in that it's easy to say "trade down" or "trade up" without doing a lot of homework! Look at the Jet's O last season. They were horrible, but had some flashes and were carried by 2 players: Hall and G. Wilson. Honorable mention goes to Conklin and Tippman, but that's it! AVT was injured. 2 players made a huge difference.
These are all good points, but still ignore who our OC is and his level of incompetence. It also overlooks the importance of the OT position and how the Jets have struggled for years due to having inadquate talent at OT. IMO the Jets aren't so great that they can just forget all about next year and the future and focus solely on 2024, but that's what some of you are advocating. Between Rodgers' age and coming off of an achilles tear, Tyrod Taylor's age and injury history, and Hackett's incompetence, the Jets' odds of making the playoffs, much less winning it all, are not very good. They can still be a very good, competitive team going forward if they get a quality OT in this draft and re-sign Moses if he stays healthy and has a good season. They won't be a good or competitive team without quality OTs, however, and imo it's not wise to risk having to try to find a starting LT in the draft next year, and then if they don't, it won't matter how good Bowers is, the team will still struggle to be above .500. Bowers isn't the only receiver in the draft who can get a lot of YAC. The Jets could add Malachi Corley in the 2nd or 3rd round and still get those YAC. Corley had an 8.6 YAC, almost double Bowers'. They could add Xavier Legette on the outside, who had a YAC of 6.4 and he's twice as good in contested catches. IMO the bottom line is that the Jets could get a future starting OT, insurance for Smith this year, and still get playmaking ability and YAC with a WR, and Conklin could still be on the field. They don't have to take a receciver (either WR or TE) in the 1st round to get that kind of production ability, and the odds are higher that a 1st-round TE or WR would bust or not be as good as hyped, than a 1st-round OT and a 2nd or 3rd round WR. For comparison, Bowers finished with 39 receptions, 191 YAC, and a YAC average of 4.897. I don't know how accurate the statistics are at the following link, but if accurate, they are quite interesting: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...fxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?pli=1#gid=1244172747 EDIT: The poster who created this spreadsheet on Reddit said that most of the stats were taken from PFF's database, and he used their numbers to create another couple of stats that he thought would be important.
Yes, things can work out both ways sometimes. Sometimes one great player can do more than two very good ones, and at other times, two very good ones can help a team more than one great player. The difference is that QB isn't just any old position. Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL right now. I wouldn't take 10 very good players at other positions for him.
Why wouldn't it play well in the NFL? A lot of the best offenses are based on getting playmakers the ball quickly and letting them do damage after the catch.
According to Nania: "Among all 26 of the NFL tight ends with at least 50 targets in 2023, the average behind-LOS target rate was 10% – barely more than one-quarter of Bowers’ rate" So the data indicate that it doesn't play well in the NFL--now, you may think different and thats fine--I prefer discussions that are data based so may not respond to you in the future. Peace.
Yeah, my immediate reaction is - interesting, not surprising; but, I'd also love to see how that breaks down by year. 2023 was an injury-shortened year and smaller sample. He had a different QB playing a different, less mobile style; a different offensive coordinator trying to maintain continuity with different tools; and wasn't playing in a two-TE set next to a behemoth TE who played more of the traditional TE role, allowing Bowers to move all around the formation. So, it’d be interesting to see if that stat held true from year to year. For example, Stetson Bennett IV got the starting job in 2021 over a five-star gunslinger primarily because of his legs. That was no secret. The SBIV game plan was clearly - get the ball into the hands of playmakers and let them make plays. Georgia rolled SBIV out of the pocket a ton, especially in 2021, in sort of a QB run-pass option, and if Bowers was in tight, he was often releasing into the flat. I'd be curious how often those flat throws he caught behind the LOS and then carried downfield for 12-yards. I don't know the answer, but I can picture a crapload of them from memory. Also, there were a handful of shovel passes and multiple screen packages. all of them down in the books as nine-plus yard passes for SBIV, but all of them on the back of Brock Bowers. It's one of the reasons I've said a few times elsewhere - Brock Bowers turned Stetson Bennett from a walk-on into a 5th round NFL draft pick. 2023 was different. Carson Beck is athletic, but doesn't have SBIV's legs, so his default throw was from the pocket. In the limited 2023 sample size, I'd be curious if the number of catches behind the LOS was the same as in 2021 and 2022. My gut says no. Same Todd Monken multiple offense, except Mike Bobo's game seemed more vertical. Carson Beck is more arm, less legs. To your question - I guess I'd flip that stat around. That translates into a TE who catches 50% of his passes behind the LOS and still racks up 900 yards a season with a 15-yard per catch average. Which, in turn, tells me a few things. First - fucking hell, who does that?! Second, the ball is either getting out quicker than the pass rush or the QB is running circles in the backfield. Regardless, if that's the game he brings to the NFL and he's averaging only seven yards, I'd take that every day of the week. Takes a ton of pressure off a mediocre O-Line. Third, he's obviously beating the first tackler the majority of the time and, by the third game of his freshman season, Bowers was no longer a surprise to anyone. The only way all of that wouldn't translate to the NFL game is if you're a head coach and you play him exclusively in a trad-TE role - after which, you'd be fired and doing local commercials for your brother-in-law's autoparts store. I've read a few times how Bowers is a luxury when you already have Conklin and Ruckert. I think this misses the point entirely. The only reason any team should draft Brock Bowers is BECAUSE they have Conklin, Ruckert or equivalent. Traditional TEs who can (mostly) hold the edge, lend support to the O-Line, and allow a versatile playmaker line up multiple and be a mismatch on just about any level. Interesting question. I doubt I'm done thinking about this, because I wasn't aware of that stat.
Means almost nothing to me. Brock Bowers had midseason tightrope surgery and returned three weeks later. Pretty remarkable. UGA fortunately had a bye-week for recovery. More importantly, there's Brock Bowers before Vanderbilt 2023, and Brock Bowers after, when he was utilized with kid gloves.
