Are you guys sure? I would think data analytics would account for the relative costs and benefits. I think the are looking at the results of thousands of plays and accounting for the costs and benefits of those results.
I think it accounts for what happens if it’s not made but it doesn’t account for momentum. It just spits out a percentage point of win probability. The momentum swings with not converting 4th downs can’t properly be weighed by analytics formulas and I think it’s often ignored by coaches that get over aggressive.
All KC so far. The Baltimore offense looks so out of sync. Lots of batted passes at the line by KC's defensive line. Nothing looks easy for Baltimore's offense they have to work hard for everything looks like. And it looks like the Baltimore defense has no answers for KC's offense. How many catches did Kelce have in that first half? 9? That's a good game's worth at the half! 17-7 is not a impossible deficit. Perhaps they can do to KC in the second half what they did to Houston last week? I don't see it happening based on what I saw in the first half. We'll find out soon enough.
When you see coaches repeatedly go for it on 4th in their own territory, there is no fucking way they are taking everything into account because I am quite certain the numbers are through the roof on giving up points when you give the team the ball in your own 35, compared to you actually manage to score on that drive.
Baltimore led the league in sacks this season? Do they have 1 yet in the postseason? I don't believe they've sniffed a QB yet
I disagree at least in terms of how the analytics nerds run numbers. They weigh it based on win probability if they get it versus if they don’t. But I think that’s an extremely flawed data analysis early in games. But I often think they analyze it incorrectly especially in the first half. I’m not against going for it into the 3rd quarter. I’d be extremely conservative in the first half if I were a coach though. They end up chasing points a ton when they miss early in games.
Their gameplan sucks. Looks like. Harbaugh is a top coach though. Perhaps he'll make some halftime adjustments like last week? Problem this time is Andy Reid is one of the all time greats on the other side.
I was not expecting Baltimore to pull a Jets and come out flat in a critical spot. They can't afford that with the refs on the take. Refs will be a deciding factor unless the game takes a major turn.
Not taking anything away from Coach Reid because Belichick had cheating plus refs. Reid is a great Coach and has refs plus KelSwift.
Of course the Ravens' plan was going to stink. The NFL was going to have Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl one way or another.
I actually find the Chiefs likable. I'm rooting for them. Plus I bet them on the money line so definitely pulling for them.
Jim Harbaugh watching is quite interesting. Sure he is rooting for his brother but I'm sure he's gameplanning on how to beat the Chiefs next year.